South American Leagues · resolved market
Will Botafogo FR win on 2026-05-23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0d80670c375ce2e66a7d44f34706d9a28a125ed5f294f20fb274403eab97a0a3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,367
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,874
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,367 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x564f…d93bbacked Yes | 12c | 3,357$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +20%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Yes | 4c | 2,023$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.11 | 824 | 34.5%284 W · 540 L | -17.8wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -32%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Yes | 5c | 1,307$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.33 | 2,514 | 39%980 W · 1,534 L | -32.2wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x319f…500bbacked No | 80c | 1,270$1,016 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$254 | 86 | 60.5%52 W · 34 L | +6.2wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbd73…4da1backed Yes | 4c | 1,215$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.6 | 153 | 26.1%40 W · 113 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -13%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x005c…a987backed Yes | 20c | 1,200$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244 | 127 | 41.7%53 W · 74 L | -6.8wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc686…5a55backed Yes | 9c | 1,033$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 465 | 30.3%141 W · 324 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfdf1…5977backed Yes | 7c | 567$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.69 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed No | 78c | 517$404 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.14 | 1,070 | 47.4%507 W · 563 L | -46.3wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc551…fa51backed Yes | 11c | 492.81$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.23 | 97 | 63.9%62 W · 35 L | +13.3wins | +0.14per pick | 50cpaid | +47.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Yes | 20c | 473.92$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.78 | 3,405 | 51.3%1,748 W · 1,657 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31f3…0eacbacked Yes | 19c | 471$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.49 | 41 | 41.5%17 W · 24 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa573…3987backed No | 80c | 409.6$328 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.92 | 14 | 85.7%12 W · 2 L | +2.0wins | +0.14per pick | 71cpaid | +17%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2cc1…b159backed Yes | 5c | 400$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Yes | 20c | 383.85$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.77 | 1,302 | 50.2%653 W · 649 L | -13.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Yes | 5c | 381.87$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.09 | 538 | 36.8%198 W · 340 L | -24.0wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7edb…7993backed Yes | 6c | 361.07$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.16 | 363 | 39.9%145 W · 218 L | -16.8wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1792…118abacked Yes | 6c | 361$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.18 | 293 | 62.5%183 W · 110 L | +13.1wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Yes | 4c | 316.07$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.35 | 1,253 | 56.2%704 W · 549 L | +73.3wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed Yes | 19c | 300$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 62 | 35.5%22 W · 40 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x587b…2622backed Yes | 12c | 299.99$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 200 | 65%130 W · 70 L | +18.0wins | +0.09per pick | 56cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x222b…1a8dbacked Yes | 6c | 207.83$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.93 | 216 | 40.3%87 W · 129 L | -7.0wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1eaf…9bf0backed No | 77c | 184.63$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.46 | 31 | 67.7%21 W · 10 L | +3.6wins | +0.12per pick | 56cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Yes | 7c | 159.75$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.59 | 411 | 45.5%187 W · 224 L | -9.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed Yes | 11c | 150.93$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.6 | 992 | 59.1%586 W · 406 L | +108.7wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked Yes | 12c | 149.19$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.47 | 250 | 44%110 W · 140 L | -6.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Yes | 18c | 144.54$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.02 | 2,281 | 34.3%782 W · 1,499 L | -30.5wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x489d…f6e3backed Yes | 22c | 119.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.4 | 267 | 49.4%132 W · 135 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ef…20ebbacked Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 96 | 57.3%55 W · 41 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Yes | 23c | 79.42$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.27 | 289 | 40.1%116 W · 173 L | -6.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Yes | 23c | 63$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.49 | 700 | 55.7%390 W · 310 L | +13.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb76…7ffebacked No | 75c | 56$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 100 | 33%33 W · 67 L | -6.2wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc677…e5edbacked Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed No | 79c | 23.65$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.89 | 1,282 | 53.7%689 W · 593 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb370…1e7fbacked No | 78c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Botafogo FR win on 2026-05-23?this page
- Will São Paulo FC vs. Botafogo FR end in a draw?Yes won
- Will São Paulo FC win on 2026-05-23?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.