South American Leagues · resolved market
Will São Paulo FC vs. Botafogo FR end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9cf07e9ede5a1d53646aa511b2c4ce4f992387d32edc9efe34805e0d55585800
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $32,069
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $32,332
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,069 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0346…52a5backed No | 75c | 3,584$2,683 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,683.19 | 2,281 | 34.3%782 W · 1,499 L | -30.5wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc23d…82c8backed Yes | 66c | 2,185$1,444 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$740.61 | 300 | 48%144 W · 156 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30d5…36bfbacked Yes | 38c | 1,500$577 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$923.15 | 77 | 41.6%32 W · 45 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed No | 49c | 1,441$701 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700.99 | 2,514 | 39%980 W · 1,534 L | -32.2wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4935…4662backed Yes | 27c | 1,300$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$950.33 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +53.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0bf0…72cebacked No | 11c | 1,224$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.91 | 37 | 56.8%21 W · 16 L | +2.7wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Yes | 25c | 1,000$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$750 | 1,668 | 51.7%863 W · 805 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d8e…7fe3backed Yes | 24c | 993.32$243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$750.55 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +104.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc9db…6789backed No | 55c | 876.47$482 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$482.06 | 96 | 41.7%40 W · 56 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed No | 73c | 842.95$613 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$613.12 | 1,302 | 50.2%653 W · 649 L | -13.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Yes | 21c | 642.43$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$507.97 | 575 | 40.2%231 W · 344 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed No | 74c | 602.82$446 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$446.05 | 1,944 | 51.3%998 W · 946 L | +40.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed Yes | 18c | 598.57$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$492.52 | 62 | 35.5%22 W · 40 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x222b…1a8dbacked Yes | 45c | 590.81$267 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$324.3 | 216 | 40.3%87 W · 129 L | -7.0wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Yes | 25c | 550$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$412.5 | 1,282 | 53.7%689 W · 593 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x86fb…03d4backed Yes | 26c | 443.77$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$328.39 | 335 | 60.9%204 W · 131 L | +18.7wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2843…0ac5backed Yes | 24c | 424.15$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$324.15 | 70 | 34.3%24 W · 46 L | -3.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x005c…a987backed Yes | 25c | 400$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300 | 127 | 41.7%53 W · 74 L | -6.8wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1a59…a57ebacked No | 67c | 397.9$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265 | 191 | 50.3%96 W · 95 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x587b…2622backed Yes | 34c | 394$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260.34 | 200 | 65%130 W · 70 L | +18.0wins | +0.09per pick | 56cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4583…6ca4backed Yes | 26c | 384.62$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$284.62 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44f4…f3dabacked Yes | 26c | 384.62$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$284.62 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Yes | 25c | 384.3$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$288.23 | 3,405 | 51.3%1,748 W · 1,657 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Yes | 25c | 363$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$271.45 | 1,537 | 45.2%695 W · 842 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Yes | 25c | 359.92$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$269.94 | 452 | 53.1%240 W · 212 L | +14.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x81a8…9c69backed No | 74c | 330.81$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.8 | 70 | 60%42 W · 28 L | +4.6wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +15%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed No | 23c | 295.79$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.46 | 1,444 | 56.4%815 W · 629 L | +51.8wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed No | 19c | 279$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.48 | 1,366 | 52.4%716 W · 650 L | +51.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x26d6…caccbacked No | 53c | 218.35$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.38 | 375 | 40%150 W · 225 L | -16.6wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 78c | 209.23$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.55 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Yes | 34c | 203.3$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.47 | 1,253 | 56.2%704 W · 549 L | +73.3wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcdca…f627backed Yes | 25c | 200$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfa0…62dfbacked Yes | 25c | 200$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Yes | 25c | 194.12$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.6 | 3,749 | 38.2%1,431 W · 2,318 L | -33.3wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf16…b3eabacked Yes | 26c | 192$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.08 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 27cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x319f…500bbacked Yes | 13c | 150$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.39 | 86 | 60.5%52 W · 34 L | +6.2wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xba67…4727backed No | 75c | 148$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111 | 213 | 49.8%106 W · 107 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked No | 60c | 132.57$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.32 | 1,443 | 45.9%662 W · 781 L | -22.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecb…7645backed No | 65c | 114.81$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.47 | 274 | 42%115 W · 159 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked No | 51c | 108.52$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.37 | 1,038 | 49.4%513 W · 525 L | +14.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 78c | 97.84$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.99 | 152 | 47.4%72 W · 80 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9605…a2c4backed Yes | 27c | 95.97$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.97 | 46 | 45.7%21 W · 25 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6d7…f810backed Yes | 79c | 83.1$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.45 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked Yes | 19c | 73$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.26 | 250 | 44%110 W · 140 L | -6.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed Yes | 18c | 65.9$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.03 | 948 | 48.1%456 W · 492 L | -18.5wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked No | 46c | 63.73$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.18 | 898 | 46.1%414 W · 484 L | -11.8wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0739…aba8backed Yes | 27c | 59.67$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.56 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +2.1wins | +0.16per pick | 38cpaid | +61.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e1…0dbdbacked Yes | 19c | 57.89$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.89 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +33.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb1b…69f2backed Yes | 25c | 50$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.5 | 235 | 49.4%116 W · 119 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb5…2b6abacked Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 391 | 27.1%106 W · 285 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…6c1fbacked No | 77c | 49.6$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.18 | 82 | 52.4%43 W · 39 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -12%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xddb6…b9b3backed No | 80c | 45$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 519 | 45.7%237 W · 282 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed No | 74c | 45$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.3 | 2,611 | 54.2%1,415 W · 1,196 L | +25.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1792…118abacked Yes | 49c | 35.16$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.79 | 293 | 62.5%183 W · 110 L | +13.1wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x976a…e8ecbacked No | 80c | 30.38$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.3 | 290 | 47.6%138 W · 152 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed No | 79c | 30$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.65 | 1,070 | 47.4%507 W · 563 L | -46.3wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0eca…c56abacked No | 73c | 30$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.9 | 151 | 43%65 W · 86 L | -7.0wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked No | 74c | 27.54$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.51 | 675 | 48%324 W · 351 L | -18.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9079…b19bbacked Yes | 74c | 25.59$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.62 | 199 | 53.3%106 W · 93 L | +11.0wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x59eb…17b4backed No | 80c | 23.13$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.32per pick | 65cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed No | 73c | 20.42$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.91 | 422 | 50.2%212 W · 210 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed No | 73c | 19.2$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.02 | 700 | 55.7%390 W · 310 L | +13.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcee6…0a45backed No | 75c | 17$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.75 | 172 | 55.2%95 W · 77 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb91…6959backed No | 73c | 14.33$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will São Paulo FC vs. Botafogo FR end in a draw?this page
- Will Botafogo FR win on 2026-05-23?No won
- Will São Paulo FC win on 2026-05-23?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.