Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 36°C on August 5?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0db126ce7967f05290fe3c447fda7aadea75806e63d721b841181d37d361acff
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,806
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,840
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,806 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8383…cb59backed No | 32c | 481.75$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.02 | 495 | 43.6%216 W · 279 L | +31.2wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 46c | 313.82$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.09 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 38c | 212.35$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.66 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xed22…6450backed No | 49c | 142.31$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.56 | 431 | 39.2%169 W · 262 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 17c | 129.45$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.82 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 17c | 127.3$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.39 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x375b…0ebbbacked Yes | 52c | 107.45$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.31 | 60 | 46.7%28 W · 32 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x234c…90dbbacked Yes | 19c | 107.45$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.45 | 581 | 38.9%226 W · 355 L | +10.9wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 52c | 99.95$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.06 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 33c | 98.56$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.98 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 44c | 92.22$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.58 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79d9…9275backed Yes | 55c | 90.04$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.63 | 385 | 60.3%232 W · 153 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 14c | 83.43$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.44 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb59a…6ed2backed No | 20c | 80$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 44 | 18.2%8 W · 36 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…46c1backed Yes | 17c | 70.91$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.91 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +51.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a3f…c147backed Yes | 75c | 66.64$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.64 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 72cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 58c | 58.86$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.23 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee3b…f92fbacked Yes | 56c | 57$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.31 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed No | 25c | 54.42$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.54 | 590 | 21.7%128 W · 462 L | -24.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 60c | 51.48$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.72 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 53c | 44$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.53 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ecf…af11backed Yes | 56c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.6 | 381 | 38.6%147 W · 234 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 64c | 40$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.53 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbf…d779backed Yes | 77c | 37.81$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.81 | 87 | 48.3%42 W · 45 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c6…cd99backed Yes | 67c | 37.31$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.31 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.09per pick | 64cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xebed…7d9cbacked Yes | 43c | 35.91$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.5 | 134 | 30.6%41 W · 93 L | +4.8wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1894…a936backed Yes | 37c | 35$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.11 | 667 | 58%387 W · 280 L | +48.0wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c3…92fcbacked Yes | 72c | 34.8$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 176 | 49.4%87 W · 89 L | -9.6wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 76c | 32.37$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.65 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb335…aac1backed Yes | 38c | 32.17$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.97 | 95 | 38.9%37 W · 58 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 65c | 30.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.22 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc1…647abacked Yes | 40c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 560 | 48%269 W · 291 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 34c | 29.9$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.63 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd01…87d5backed No | 68c | 28.68$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.64 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 79c | 28$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.2 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3901…9761backed No | 78c | 25.13$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.53 | 552 | 61.6%340 W · 212 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd2d9…5653backed Yes | 74c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | -4.1wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 80c | 24.81$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.84 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb26d…73f7backed Yes | 49c | 24.33$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.35 | 252 | 61.9%156 W · 96 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked Yes | 80c | 24.03$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.87 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 73c | 21.56$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.74 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 69c | 21$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.49 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 78c | 15.82$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.35 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 65c | 15.55$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.5 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45c3…d5d9backed Yes | 76c | 14.11$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.4 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -2.2wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb3dd…81b2backed Yes | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 44 | 31.8%14 W · 30 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 36°C on August 5?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 32°C on August 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 33°C on August 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 34°C on August 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 35°C on August 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 37°C on August 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 38°C on August 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 39°C on August 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 40°C on August 5?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.