Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on July 5?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0dbfb490ffbabee5f9d9d443f359c19aa4ca620aa0f14f7c56798fa22663e536
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,612
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,268
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,612 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xadb0…1c8cbacked Yes | 49c | 272.2$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.52 | 541 | 43.1%233 W · 308 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed No | 11c | 256.4$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.61 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 22c | 230.28$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.88 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked No | 11c | 217$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.52 | 695 | 20%139 W · 556 L | -44.4wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6a56…be30backed Yes | 19c | 194.07$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.23 | 464 | 52.2%242 W · 222 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 7c | 157.2$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 28c | 135.3$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.48 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe32a…a7f9backed Yes | 52c | 114.64$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.05 | 45 | 64.4%29 W · 16 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53c0…33a5backed Yes | 69c | 100$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.2 | 226 | 45.1%102 W · 124 L | -12.2wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed Yes | 29c | 95.09$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.81 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 46c | 87.83$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.03 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 67c | 81.71$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.59 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked No | 53c | 77.63$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.03 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a92…35bcbacked No | 47c | 76.78$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.87 | 449 | 45.9%206 W · 243 L | +10.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc3…3472backed No | 41c | 69.98$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.71 | 600 | 54.2%325 W · 275 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 33c | 69.81$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.79 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 54c | 65.94$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.58 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bb5…dfcabacked Yes | 76c | 65$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.65 | 239 | 51%122 W · 117 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 47c | 59.58$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.09 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 30c | 57.55$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.15 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2753…e28abacked Yes | 55c | 54.89$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.89 | 420 | 61.2%257 W · 163 L | +19.7wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd24b…187dbacked Yes | 63c | 53.5$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.69 | 613 | 65.3%400 W · 213 L | +43.8wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8c81…25cabacked Yes | 25c | 50.19$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.7 | 122 | 33.6%41 W · 81 L | -10.0wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdcd2…87c9backed No | 60c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 113 | 44.2%50 W · 63 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf576…a786backed No | 75c | 45.99$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.59 | 376 | 69.4%261 W · 115 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x42b7…abffbacked Yes | 55c | 42.74$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.32 | 306 | 65%199 W · 107 L | +14.5wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x32a8…be9bbacked Yes | 74c | 39.95$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.21 | 86 | 67.4%58 W · 28 L | +10.6wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 61c | 38.6$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.44 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a86…9f83backed Yes | 78c | 38.29$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.29 | 84 | 76.2%64 W · 20 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97ad…9a0dbacked Yes | 52c | 37.09$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.89 | 234 | 63.7%149 W · 85 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 38c | 30.23$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.52 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 43c | 29.45$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.57 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x96e6…fecebacked Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 261 | 42.1%110 W · 151 L | +15.8wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +16%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 68c | 22.42$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.34 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 59c | 22.41$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.12 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 49c | 21.7$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.7 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 50c | 21.51$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.65 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcd90…4bfcbacked Yes | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.92 | 577 | 47%271 W · 306 L | +40.0wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x170b…4737backed No | 65c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.03 | 809 | 57.6%466 W · 343 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c8c…f34abacked No | 61c | 16.83$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.29 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4c2…f88bbacked Yes | 67c | 16.69$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.59 | 99 | 60.6%60 W · 39 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on July 5?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on July 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on July 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on July 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 20°C on July 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 21°C on July 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 22°C on July 5?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.