NBA · resolved market

Thunder vs. Pacers: O/U 231.5

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0dc79de4ea983123b6dd8e3ed032f83d5101519340f23a269c5697f27dcd9985

Rebuilt 4 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Overof Over, Under
Resolved: Oct 24, 2025, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $55,621
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $55,810

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $55,621 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NBA
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x16b2…a881backed Under	51c	37,294$18,867 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18,866.98	2,298	51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L	+65.4wins	+0.03per pick	49cpaid	+5.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbc10…3f05backed Over	49c	30,000$14,800 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15,200	96	50%48 W · 48 L	+0.6wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+0.8%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x04b9…cdaabacked Over	50c	10,000$5,000 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5,000	47	66%31 W · 16 L	+7.2wins	+0.15per pick	51cpaid	+31.6%equal weight	61+0.10 edge/pick
0x2f91…907fbacked Over	51c	4,929$2,514 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,415	62	45.2%28 W · 34 L	-1.0wins	-0.02per pick	47cpaid	-1.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7d5c…0182backed Under	49c	4,828$2,366 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,365.93	477	51.8%247 W · 230 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	51cpaid	-0.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7c15…73b3backed Under	50c	4,469$2,235 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,234.55	8	12.5%1 W · 7 L	-3.3wins	-0.42per pick	54cpaid	-69.5%equal weight	39-0.10 edge/pick
0xb7f5…c669backed Over	49c	2,041$1,000 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,040.91	662	50.8%336 W · 326 L	+15.7wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	+4.7%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Over	51c	1,865$945 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$919.94	9,722	49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L	-2.8wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4d45…9054backed Under	49c	1,219$597 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$597.36	300	53.3%160 W · 140 L	+9.2wins	+0.03per pick	50cpaid	+7.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x25f4…20e0backed Under	50c	400$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	152	44.1%67 W · 85 L	-14.4wins	-0.09per pick	54cpaid	-18.9%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x46bd…37e8backed Over	51c	250$128 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$122.5	168	37.5%63 W · 105 L	-20.6wins	-0.12per pick	50cpaid	-25%equal weight	38-0.11 edge/pick
0x3357…42fabacked Under	50c	250$125 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$125	4	25%1 W · 3 L	-0.9wins	-0.22per pick	47cpaid	-37.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa717…8919backed Under	49c	205$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100.45	163	61.3%100 W · 63 L	+2.8wins	+0.02per pick	60cpaid	+0.5%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6919…d27bbacked Over	51c	200$102 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$98	185	49.2%91 W · 94 L	+1.2wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+3.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x45d6…36cbbacked Under	52c	192.31$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	245	33.9%83 W · 162 L	-19.1wins	-0.08per pick	42cpaid	-23.9%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xee00…cea1backed Over	76c	172$131 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$40.92	701	47.8%335 W · 366 L	+15.4wins	+0.02per pick	46cpaid	-8.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4a14…1100backed Under	49c	102.04$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	37	21.6%8 W · 29 L	-5.5wins	-0.15per pick	36cpaid	-47.5%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0x41cc…26eabacked Over	50c	100$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$50	37	40.5%15 W · 22 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	41cpaid	+2.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4731…cba8backed Over	48c	100$48 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$52	120	50.8%61 W · 59 L	+3.3wins	+0.03per pick	48cpaid	+2.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x382b…2c5abacked Under	50c	100$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	8	25%2 W · 6 L	-1.9wins	-0.24per pick	49cpaid	-51%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x6b46…4f6ebacked Over	50c	88$44 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$44	6	83.3%5 W · 1 L	+1.9wins	+0.32per pick	52cpaid	+61.1%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xaacf…5f84backed Over	52c	69$36 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$33.12	1,151	53.7%618 W · 533 L	-41.7wins	-0.04per pick	57cpaid	-6.9%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb7d1…4cb7backed Under	50c	50$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	46	47.8%22 W · 24 L	-2.4wins	-0.05per pick	53cpaid	-10.1%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc264…eb32backed Under	50c	50$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	20	35%7 W · 13 L	-1.8wins	-0.09per pick	44cpaid	-13.4%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xcbcc…edc9backed Under	50c	40$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	463	48.4%224 W · 239 L	-2.7wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	-3.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9e62…06f9backed Over	52c	38.46$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$18.46	118	44.1%52 W · 66 L	-4.2wins	-0.04per pick	48cpaid	-8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x46c3…242abacked Under	52c	38.46$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-2.3wins	-0.46per pick	46cpaid	-100%equal weight	42-0.08 edge/pick
0x06a0…d5c4backed Under	50c	20$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.5wins	-0.50per pick	50cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3564…9cedbacked Under	52c	19.58$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.18	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-1.3wins	-0.42per pick	42cpaid	-100%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Thunder vs. Pacers: O/U 231.5

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event