NBA · resolved market
Spread: Thunder (-8.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x710f3c412f880d2d93dc4b09a170a6e4977aae83ac7292748e626b85f8fef056
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Pacersof Thunder, Pacers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $149,662
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $172,614
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $149,662 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc3c3…eec8backed Thunder | 47c | 45,000$21,150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21,150 | 382 | 48.7%186 W · 196 L | +13.9wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3151…0977backed Pacers | 53c | 43,640$23,129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20,510.62 | 192 | 49.5%95 W · 97 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ff6…a199backed Pacers | 56c | 29,613$16,583 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,029.81 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d0f…4faabacked Thunder | 44c | 22,000$9,680 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,680 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | +2.2wins | +0.07per pick | 42cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbc10…3f05backed Pacers | 54c | 11,091$5,989 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,101.74 | 96 | 50%48 W · 48 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc30…c8a5backed Thunder | 46c | 10,000$4,600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,600 | 258 | 47.3%122 W · 136 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Thunder | 8c | 8,892$709 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$709.24 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe542…0a37backed Thunder | 1c | 8,300$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83 | 401 | 33.4%134 W · 267 L | +27.0wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Thunder | 44c | 8,000$3,520 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,520 | 2,153 | 51.3%1,105 W · 1,048 L | +76.7wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Pacers | 54c | 5,038$2,739 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,299.45 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Thunder | 45c | 4,180$1,881 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,881.14 | 691 | 49.1%339 W · 352 L | -8.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e5…2d3abacked Pacers | 56c | 1,903$1,057 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$845.22 | 653 | 39.5%258 W · 395 L | -24.6wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed Thunder | 44c | 1,137$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500.28 | 662 | 50.8%336 W · 326 L | +15.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Thunder | 2c | 1,122$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.56 | 1,132 | 17%192 W · 940 L | +2.5wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc996…bb65backed Thunder | 48c | 1,043$502 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$502.31 | 471 | 44.2%208 W · 263 L | -10.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07dd…ed9dbacked Pacers | 56c | 895$501 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$393.8 | 140 | 40%56 W · 84 L | +10.4wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbb43…9d70backed Thunder | 46c | 869.57$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 89 | 36%32 W · 57 L | -6.7wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4103…9b9ebacked Pacers | 51c | 725.39$370 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$355.44 | 417 | 42%175 W · 242 L | -16.5wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0774…99febacked Pacers | 55c | 578.57$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$258.57 | 45 | 42.2%19 W · 26 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xccff…e845backed Thunder | 45c | 500$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225 | 481 | 37.2%179 W · 302 L | -15.6wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Thunder | 44c | 401.57$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.69 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc71f…1f44backed Thunder | 47c | 395.29$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7b3…f97cbacked Thunder | 48c | 378.33$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.6 | 51 | 51%26 W · 25 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbd7…51fcbacked Pacers | 54c | 300$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -2.0wins | -0.15per pick | 50cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x26b1…c3ddbacked Thunder | 45c | 282$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.9 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | +2.6wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa5c…be69backed Pacers | 55c | 275.64$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.04 | 279 | 39.8%111 W · 168 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb22…808abacked Pacers | 55c | 250$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.5 | 956 | 41.7%399 W · 557 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x81d6…bec9backed Pacers | 56c | 223$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.12 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +3.5wins | +0.17per pick | 40cpaid | +35.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xae4d…fc45backed Thunder | 46c | 217.39$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 116 | 26.7%31 W · 85 L | -16.8wins | -0.15per pick | 41cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Pacers | 53c | 201.45$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.68 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Thunder | 53c | 200$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106 | 1,290 | 44%567 W · 723 L | +35.0wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7477…e718backed Thunder | 46c | 200$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7051…c559backed Thunder | 48c | 191.38$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.01 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.14per pick | 58cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b55…d74bbacked Thunder | 47c | 149.99$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.49 | 171 | 48%82 W · 89 L | +4.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e52…6577backed Thunder | 47c | 127.66$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x045d…d649backed Thunder | 46c | 123.91$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 122 | 38.5%47 W · 75 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1114…d59abacked Pacers | 57c | 122.81$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.81 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +14%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Pacers | 53c | 118.84$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.85 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Thunder | 45c | 115$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.75 | 786 | 52.4%412 W · 374 L | +14.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27ec…ad73backed Thunder | 48c | 110.55$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 194 | 51.5%100 W · 94 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28a8…57d5backed Thunder | 46c | 108.7$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x46bd…37e8backed Pacers | 53c | 101.89$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.89 | 168 | 37.5%63 W · 105 L | -20.6wins | -0.12per pick | 50cpaid | -25%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Thunder | 45c | 101$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.45 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x462d…8b1abacked Pacers | 55c | 100.24$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.11 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5bfa…72c5backed Thunder | 47c | 99.15$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.6 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.31per pick | 49cpaid | +78.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x61cd…541ebacked Pacers | 55c | 96.72$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.76 | 31 | 64.5%20 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf02…38b9backed Pacers | 55c | 88.95$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.03 | 48 | 47.9%23 W · 25 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3655…7b1bbacked Pacers | 55c | 83.71$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.67 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 48cpaid | -54.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca67…c23dbacked Pacers | 56c | 71.43$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.43 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Thunder | 46c | 70.41$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.22 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Thunder | 52c | 57$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.64 | 597 | 43.6%260 W · 337 L | -11.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4740…fa66backed Thunder | 46c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 304 | 44.7%136 W · 168 L | +21.5wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfd99…f375backed Thunder | 39c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 381 | 51.2%195 W · 186 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5470…f84ebacked Pacers | 54c | 46.43$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.43 | 77 | 46.8%36 W · 41 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xced0…c680backed Thunder | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x624a…287cbacked Pacers | 56c | 22$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.68 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8095…d7abbacked Pacers | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 35 | 65.7%23 W · 12 L | +3.7wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +56.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Thunder (-8.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Thunder (-4.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Thunder (-7.5)Pacers won
- Thunder vs. PacersThunder won
- Thunder vs. Pacers: O/U 228.5Over won
- Thunder vs. Pacers: O/U 229.5Over won
- Thunder vs. Pacers: O/U 230.5Over won
- Thunder vs. Pacers: O/U 231.5Over won
- Thunder vs. Pacers: O/U 232.5Over won
- Thunder vs. Pacers: O/U 233.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.