NBA · resolved market

Spread: Thunder (-7.5)

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1eecf632e5ba40522782358126034f61b99a44cc879f678cbe8b4a16ec102790

Rebuilt 17 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Pacersof Thunder, Pacers
Resolved: Oct 24, 2025, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $69,518
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $74,791

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $69,518 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NBA
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xac0d…b006backed Pacers	51c	19,329$9,858 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9,471.15	18	61.1%11 W · 7 L	+2.2wins	+0.12per pick	49cpaid	+24.9%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Thunder	48c	12,000$5,800 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$5,800	2,153	51.3%1,105 W · 1,048 L	+76.7wins	+0.04per pick	48cpaid	+6.9%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcfeb…620bbacked Pacers	49c	10,000$4,900 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5,099.9	12	66.7%8 W · 4 L	+1.8wins	+0.15per pick	52cpaid	+21.5%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xafba…e61bbacked Thunder	49c	10,000$4,900 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$4,900	478	48.1%230 W · 248 L	-9.9wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-4.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9a35…c104backed Thunder	51c	9,990$5,095 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$5,094.9	11	36.4%4 W · 7 L	-1.4wins	-0.13per pick	49cpaid	-31.7%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4488…e319backed Thunder	49c	5,820$2,852 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,851.8	691	49.1%339 W · 352 L	-8.6wins	-0.01per pick	50cpaid	-2.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7ff6…a199backed Pacers	52c	5,386$2,801 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,585.08	13	53.8%7 W · 6 L	+1.2wins	+0.09per pick	45cpaid	+32.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa41c…fadebacked Pacers	50c	5,000$2,500 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,500	42	52.4%22 W · 20 L	+3.5wins	+0.08per pick	44cpaid	+39%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe895…c3dabacked Thunder	49c	5,000$2,450 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,450	79	39.2%31 W · 48 L	-1.6wins	-0.02per pick	41cpaid	+23.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8f03…64d6backed Pacers	50c	4,686$2,343 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,343.07	1,046	51.1%534 W · 512 L	-0.7wins	0.00per pick	51cpaid	-0.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x69e9…dee1backed Thunder	50c	3,000$1,500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,500	33	33.3%11 W · 22 L	-6.0wins	-0.18per pick	52cpaid	-41.5%equal weight	38-0.10 edge/pick
0x2f09…4632backed Pacers	52c	2,500$1,300 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,200	202	53.5%108 W · 94 L	+6.9wins	+0.03per pick	50cpaid	+5.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa216…179bbacked Thunder	49c	2,433$1,202 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,202	49	49%24 W · 25 L	-1.2wins	-0.02per pick	51cpaid	-7.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4d45…9054backed Thunder	50c	2,404$1,202 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,202.31	300	53.3%160 W · 140 L	+9.2wins	+0.03per pick	50cpaid	+7.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0e02…b1c5backed Thunder	53c	2,250$1,192 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,192.32	49	51%25 W · 24 L	+0.8wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	-1.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb7f5…c669backed Thunder	49c	2,041$1,000 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,000.09	662	50.8%336 W · 326 L	+15.7wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	+4.7%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x16b2…a881backed Pacers	49c	1,116$547 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$569.01	2,298	51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L	+65.4wins	+0.03per pick	49cpaid	+5.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa576…89a4backed Pacers	51c	1,000$510 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$490	27	48.1%13 W · 14 L	+3.2wins	+0.12per pick	36cpaid	+23.2%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Pacers	47c	938.97$443 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$495.94	9,722	49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L	-2.8wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xce99…637ebacked Pacers	50c	786$393 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$393	74	58.1%43 W · 31 L	+6.5wins	+0.09per pick	49cpaid	+18.8%equal weight	57+0.07 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Pacers	49c	584.49$286 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$298.55	8,988	47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L	+96.4wins	+0.01per pick	46cpaid	-5.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3e9c…ab80backed Pacers	51c	500$255 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$245	41	58.5%24 W · 17 L	+2.8wins	+0.07per pick	52cpaid	+11.3%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x098c…1c67backed Pacers	49c	428.68$210 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$218.91	164	36.6%60 W · 104 L	+1.5wins	+0.01per pick	36cpaid	+3.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Pacers	51c	407$206 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$200.99	6,213	50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L	+53.8wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+1.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x02f0…57b6backed Thunder	50c	400$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	28	53.6%15 W · 13 L	+2.7wins	+0.10per pick	44cpaid	+18.4%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x71b1…ac2cbacked Thunder	6c	380$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21	243	34.2%83 W · 160 L	+2.5wins	+0.01per pick	33cpaid	+9.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc996…bb65backed Thunder	49c	348.44$171 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$170.73	471	44.2%208 W · 263 L	-10.1wins	-0.02per pick	46cpaid	+0.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7dd0…2b4bbacked Thunder	49c	327.59$161 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$161.07	86	37.2%32 W · 54 L	-3.4wins	-0.04per pick	41cpaid	-26.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x44a0…c3b9backed Thunder	51c	300$153 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$153	275	47.6%131 W · 144 L	-2.1wins	-0.01per pick	48cpaid	-11.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdf02…38b9backed Pacers	50c	298.58$149 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$149.29	48	47.9%23 W · 25 L	-0.5wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	-2.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6884…6ccfbacked Thunder	51c	260.78$133 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$133	390	51.5%201 W · 189 L	-5.1wins	-0.01per pick	53cpaid	-3.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe45d…f77ebacked Thunder	51c	213.8$110 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$110	253	36.8%93 W · 160 L	-10.2wins	-0.04per pick	41cpaid	-15%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8059…c043backed Pacers	51c	196.43$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$96.43	261	50.2%131 W · 130 L	+4.3wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+6.4%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3ffb…df76backed Thunder	52c	192.31$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	470	48.5%228 W · 242 L	-18.6wins	-0.04per pick	52cpaid	-7.5%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfd3f…a8bdbacked Thunder	52c	135.86$71 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70.6	231	50.2%116 W · 115 L	-8.7wins	-0.04per pick	54cpaid	-8.8%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1d94…9100backed Pacers	49c	135.36$66 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$69.03	3,120	44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L	-7.6wins	0.00per pick	45cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x84f7…ade1backed Pacers	51c	129$66 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$63.21	1,715	44.5%764 W · 951 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	45cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe1e7…12febacked Pacers	51c	110$56 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$53.9	95	63.2%60 W · 35 L	+1.5wins	+0.02per pick	62cpaid	+5.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4cb9…3783backed Pacers	52c	100$52 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$48	641	39%250 W · 391 L	+2.6wins	0.00per pick	39cpaid	+1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xaf38…a59bbacked Pacers	47c	100$47 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$53	418	48.3%202 W · 216 L	-7.0wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-3.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4731…cba8backed Thunder	51c	100$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51	120	50.8%61 W · 59 L	+3.3wins	+0.03per pick	48cpaid	+2.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x576d…767dbacked Pacers	51c	100$51 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$49	22	45.5%10 W · 12 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	47cpaid	+9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8328…0a5cbacked Thunder	51c	78.43$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	368	42.4%156 W · 212 L	-8.8wins	-0.02per pick	45cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbf32…aecbbacked Thunder	50c	77.34$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38.67	14	35.7%5 W · 9 L	-0.4wins	-0.03per pick	38cpaid	-9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5530…d38dbacked Pacers	50c	60$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$30	1,053	53.5%563 W · 490 L	-15.4wins	-0.01per pick	55cpaid	+2%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0448…5a75backed Thunder	47c	60$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.2	122	51.6%63 W · 59 L	-0.7wins	-0.01per pick	52cpaid	-0.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6b96…1c66backed Thunder	52c	57.69$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	18	55.6%10 W · 8 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	56cpaid	-2.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Pacers	43c	49.61$21 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$28.42	3,995	48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L	+101.9wins	+0.03per pick	46cpaid	-1.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x21d1…a3cabacked Thunder	51c	49.02$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	12	25%3 W · 9 L	-2.9wins	-0.24per pick	49cpaid	-28.2%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0xd774…82cdbacked Pacers	51c	47.06$24 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$23.06	355	51.3%182 W · 173 L	+3.5wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+2.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8725…eb10backed Pacers	51c	45$23 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$22.05	1,109	41.8%464 W · 645 L	-20.3wins	-0.02per pick	44cpaid	-5.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6079…81c6backed Thunder	49c	40.82$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	105	48.6%51 W · 54 L	-1.9wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-14.4%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3f1f…feaebacked Thunder	49c	40.04$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.82	58	39.7%23 W · 35 L	+1.1wins	+0.02per pick	38cpaid	+10.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe08e…646dbacked Thunder	49c	40$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.6	79	50.6%40 W · 39 L	-2.3wins	-0.03per pick	54cpaid	-15.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc264…eb32backed Thunder	51c	39.22$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	20	35%7 W · 13 L	-1.8wins	-0.09per pick	44cpaid	-13.4%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5387…b792backed Thunder	51c	39.22$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	11	27.3%3 W · 8 L	-2.5wins	-0.23per pick	50cpaid	-51.7%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x94d6…89ecbacked Thunder	51c	39.22$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	7	28.6%2 W · 5 L	-1.6wins	-0.23per pick	52cpaid	-52.7%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1327…fb60backed Thunder	51c	39.22$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	9	44.4%4 W · 5 L	-0.5wins	-0.06per pick	50cpaid	+15.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3b83…ed1dbacked Thunder	51c	29.41$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	32	40.6%13 W · 19 L	-2.6wins	-0.08per pick	49cpaid	-9.2%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6526…9c80backed Thunder	50c	20$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	8	37.5%3 W · 5 L	-1.1wins	-0.14per pick	51cpaid	-28.1%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0f32…483dbacked Thunder	51c	19.96$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.18	76	43.4%33 W · 43 L	-2.0wins	-0.03per pick	46cpaid	-9.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Spread: Thunder (-7.5)

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event