NHL · resolved market
Spread: Oilers (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0dcf9802666ceccde8e40f32744a24e6696d7ae86ac17fb1bff0d8096dcc4dec
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Oilersof Oilers, Red Wings
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,322
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,270
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,322 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4488…e319backed Oilers | 40c | 2,500$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,500 | 272 | 43.4%118 W · 154 L | -16.8wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7b3c…ffc7backed Red Wings | 56c | 1,293$727 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$726.68 | 230 | 47.4%109 W · 121 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8511…4a6bbacked Red Wings | 60c | 1,146$688 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$687.52 | 201 | 47.8%96 W · 105 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3920…23e7backed Red Wings | 60c | 500$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 396 | 49.5%196 W · 200 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf28e…cab2backed Oilers | 73c | 315.16$229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.16 | 106 | 50%53 W · 53 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Oilers | 45c | 289.17$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.15 | 2,664 | 51.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Red Wings | 20c | 252.69$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.45 | 1,140 | 51.5%587 W · 553 L | +40.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Oilers | 40c | 191.67$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115 | 2,894 | 51.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83a3…6292backed Red Wings | 60c | 175$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 811 | 57.2%464 W · 347 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Red Wings | 58c | 173.17$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.44 | 1,679 | 54.4%914 W · 765 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x033f…618ebacked Oilers | 80c | 143.69$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.74 | 182 | 62.1%113 W · 69 L | +15.6wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Oilers | 39c | 136.88$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.88 | 629 | 51.2%322 W · 307 L | +18.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ff…f3f3backed Red Wings | 60c | 100$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9e9a…a9a8backed Red Wings | 60c | 100$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa924…b1b9backed Red Wings | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 337 | 35%118 W · 219 L | +10.5wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb590…15d3backed Red Wings | 60c | 83.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 481 | 61.3%295 W · 186 L | +21.3wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb12…f057backed Oilers | 38c | 62$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.44 | 232 | 49.1%114 W · 118 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90cb…ae5fbacked Oilers | 41c | 48.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.78 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb34…93a5backed Oilers | 41c | 43.9$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.9 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9de1…f272backed Red Wings | 60c | 40$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 278 | 51.1%142 W · 136 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…22ebbacked Red Wings | 60c | 35$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 690 | 61.6%425 W · 265 L | +15.7wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2dd…ea96backed Oilers | 51c | 30.32$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.01 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Red Wings | 60c | 20.9$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.54 | 1,530 | 51.7%791 W · 739 L | +22.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Oilers (-1.5)this page
- Red Wings vs. OilersOilers won
- Red Wings vs. Oilers: O/U 6.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.