NBA · resolved market
NBA Finals G6: Will Jalen Williams score 25+ points against the Pacers?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0dd777c542cb18c85a5fa4b6da96837691c0bbfd981b07a6f154044f83c457cf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,202
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,258
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,202 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x22d5…5622backed Yes | 46c | 1,000$460 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$460 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4bf0…d55dbacked No | 52c | 995$517 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$477.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2728…4f96backed Yes | 47c | 843.67$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 130 | 37.7%49 W · 81 L | -14.4wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6c82…6150backed No | 54c | 799.99$428 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$372 | 635 | 55.6%353 W · 282 L | +9.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01ff…b1d1backed No | 54c | 655$354 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$301.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1102…1822backed No | 52c | 655$341 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$314.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b52…5758backed Yes | 48c | 640$307 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$307.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e82…0d3fbacked Yes | 48c | 640$307 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$307.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4149…6cdcbacked No | 53c | 345$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +87.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1656…b5babacked No | 52c | 345$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9587…4f6ebacked No | 52c | 345$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf031…89b5backed Yes | 47c | 305.63$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.49 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x067f…e041backed No | 50c | 280$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140 | 1,269 | 44.5%565 W · 704 L | +32.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf3a4…9fb1backed Yes | 48c | 200$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x310c…cf0abacked Yes | 48c | 200$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x12f9…508ebacked Yes | 48c | 155$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd621…bc07backed No | 51c | 137.21$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.23 | 95 | 55.8%53 W · 42 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec01…6592backed Yes | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 113 | 44.2%50 W · 63 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed No | 53c | 94.42$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.1 | 786 | 52.4%412 W · 374 L | +14.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb07f…596dbacked Yes | 50c | 80$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed No | 53c | 56.6$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.6 | 1,109 | 41.8%464 W · 645 L | -20.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10c9…1890backed Yes | 49c | 46.39$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.73 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked No | 50c | 46.31$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.16 | 87 | 43.7%38 W · 49 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c83…6f40backed Yes | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 574 | 44.1%253 W · 321 L | -20.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…4f2abacked No | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.74 | 47 | 57.4%27 W · 20 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb102…a26cbacked Yes | 49c | 34.69$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x42d9…bc6dbacked Yes | 47c | 34.16$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.06 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf475…fae7backed No | 53c | 30.19$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.19 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd265…34b0backed No | 78c | 27$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0905…e5c0backed Yes | 73c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.95 | 424 | 34.4%146 W · 278 L | -19.4wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.