Bundesliga · resolved market
Borussia Mönchengladbach vs. FC St. Pauli 1910: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0ddc5707e464af31d385d0842036ce1cc9c891739c12617bb400ac253ef3761e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,365
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,365 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1f09…9312backed Over | 23c | 7,679$1,800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,800.45 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1414…ae7bbacked Under | 79c | 3,798$3,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$797.58 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 68cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x160b…4296backed Under | 77c | 2,244$1,728 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$516.08 | 387 | 48.3%187 W · 200 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 8c | 1,199$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.93 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked Over | 19c | 1,136$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.79 | 54 | 25.9%14 W · 40 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -27%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e7…b14fbacked Over | 23c | 1,105$259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$258.92 | 73 | 45.2%33 W · 40 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 76c | 854.66$653 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.27 | 341 | 44.6%152 W · 189 L | -8.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad9d…f2cdbacked Over | 15c | 700$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 81 | 24.7%20 W · 61 L | -5.8wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa10e…4ea1backed Over | 18c | 555.56$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6619…703ebacked Under | 79c | 329.11$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.11 | 189 | 58.2%110 W · 79 L | -6.5wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc91…0fdbbacked Under | 80c | 325$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65 | 209 | 57.4%120 W · 89 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5773…ac11backed Over | 21c | 318.77$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.94 | 311 | 45%140 W · 171 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22d6…00d5backed Over | 4c | 300$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 9cpaid | +376.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Under | 76c | 200$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 358 | 56.4%202 W · 156 L | +19.9wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Under | 77c | 200$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 300 | 54%162 W · 138 L | +10.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5f…849cbacked Over | 23c | 172.78$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.74 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Over | 21c | 135.03$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.36 | 550 | 58.7%323 W · 227 L | +23.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9e9a…a9a8backed Under | 78c | 123.12$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.09 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa66f…f5a3backed Over | 24c | 84$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.16 | 149 | 42.3%63 W · 86 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1479…b778backed Under | 80c | 62.53$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.53 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 64cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe50b…c2a8backed Under | 78c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 93 | 50.5%47 W · 46 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…038cbacked Under | 80c | 49.99$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.11per pick | 69cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8882…c67dbacked Over | 23c | 44.07$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.15per pick | 47cpaid | +28.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 77c | 43.05$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.09 | 1,083 | 50.8%550 W · 533 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe34a…273ebacked Under | 79c | 34.18$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.18 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Under | 80c | 31.24$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.25 | 531 | 40.7%216 W · 315 L | -13.3wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69ee…6e35backed Under | 77c | 16.49$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.78 | 210 | 51.4%108 W · 102 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Borussia Mönchengladbach vs. FC St. Pauli 1910: O/U 3.5this page
- Borussia Mönchengladbach vs. FC St. Pauli 1910: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Borussia Mönchengladbach vs. FC St. Pauli 1910: O/U 1.5Over won
- Borussia Mönchengladbach vs. FC St. Pauli 1910: O/U 2.5Under won
- Borussia Mönchengladbach vs. FC St. Pauli 1910: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Borussia Mönchengladbach (-1.5)Borussia Mönchengladbach won
- Spread: Borussia Mönchengladbach (-2.5)FC St. Pauli 1910 won
- Spread: FC St. Pauli 1910 (-1.5)Borussia Mönchengladbach won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.