Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on March 21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0de8efa9170c697dd21dd8363884a452b4793fc162016cb045079d386e5201e6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,717
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,717 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 85 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 23c | 736.01$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.41 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 43c | 380$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.93 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x331b…193fbacked Yes | 33c | 324.89$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.72 | 900 | 40.7%366 W · 534 L | +112.3wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 59c | 311.13$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.8 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f8…f4cbbacked Yes | 13c | 301.21$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.14 | 812 | 34.1%277 W · 535 L | +56.9wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x354d…eb8fbacked Yes | 47c | 250.92$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.83 | 701 | 33.5%235 W · 466 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 46c | 236.52$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.58 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a04…b254backed Yes | 39c | 202.99$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.09 | 598 | 18.4%110 W · 488 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47af…3999backed No | 51c | 200$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.44 | 326 | 52.1%170 W · 156 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6371…fc91backed Yes | 61c | 196.5$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.34 | 98 | 36.7%36 W · 62 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 15c | 183.42$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.74 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 59c | 180.27$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.67 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46b3…d3debacked Yes | 6c | 171.67$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 244 | 14.3%35 W · 209 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6987…846bbacked Yes | 69c | 159.81$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 90 | 40%36 W · 54 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 69c | 149.12$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.84 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 56c | 139.12$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.59 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce2…80edbacked Yes | 9c | 133.53$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 42 | 23.8%10 W · 32 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4bdf…41dfbacked No | 64c | 123.5$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.27 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | -5.1wins | -0.12per pick | 56cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 10c | 116.17$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.52 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xbe63…2de4backed Yes | 65c | 115.85$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 115 | 46.1%53 W · 62 L | -5.4wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 30c | 109.12$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.39 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2cec…a79bbacked Yes | 20c | 106.7$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.34 | 132 | 15.9%21 W · 111 L | -7.0wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd26…5b5cbacked Yes | 49c | 99.99$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 115 | 33%38 W · 77 L | -7.4wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9bda…439fbacked No | 65c | 97.65$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.44 | 594 | 40.6%241 W · 353 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0832…8681backed No | 64c | 95$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.12 | 346 | 51.2%177 W · 169 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed No | 40c | 90.89$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.49 | 523 | 22.6%118 W · 405 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 45c | 89$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.94 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28ab…2048backed No | 48c | 86.04$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.74 | 135 | 31.9%43 W · 92 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcce6…77d1backed Yes | 34c | 83.95$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.54 | 91 | 39.6%36 W · 55 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3085…7568backed Yes | 14c | 83.11$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.03 | 234 | 7.3%17 W · 217 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 7cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x83fe…23d9backed No | 75c | 80$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.4 | 327 | 60.6%198 W · 129 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dde…9d98backed Yes | 64c | 78.13$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 35 | 65.7%23 W · 12 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Yes | 47c | 71.07$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.45 | 249 | 32.9%82 W · 167 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 36c | 69.44$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.3 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2205…8089backed No | 78c | 67.69$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.89 | 290 | 56.2%163 W · 127 L | -5.6wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6734…0439backed No | 48c | 67$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.74 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c78…42e6backed No | 31c | 65.12$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.12 | 597 | 42%251 W · 346 L | +96.8wins | +0.16per pick | 26cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 55c | 64.61$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.05 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xabfb…12e5backed Yes | 19c | 64.16$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.47 | 328 | 18.3%60 W · 268 L | +15.8wins | +0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe712…9a10backed Yes | 23c | 61.75$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 868 | 47.7%414 W · 454 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7943…27a1backed Yes | 54c | 58.36$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.59 | 320 | 44.7%143 W · 177 L | +9.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7f4…5d3dbacked Yes | 69c | 56.77$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.2 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -3.0wins | -0.18per pick | 71cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 44c | 56.64$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.64 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ef3…ac46backed Yes | 52c | 55.38$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 194 | 49%95 W · 99 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x59d4…b745backed Yes | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.9 | 275 | 40%110 W · 165 L | -10.0wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa842…90aebacked No | 49c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.0wins | -0.20per pick | 50cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked No | 31c | 49.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.49 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 56c | 49.72$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.06 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb8c…2c71backed No | 62c | 48.47$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.47 | 90 | 53.3%48 W · 42 L | -6.8wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 49c | 46.23$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.73 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32e5…931abacked No | 58c | 45.34$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.2 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24fe…3419backed Yes | 25c | 44.72$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.01 | 212 | 35.8%76 W · 136 L | +10.4wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x20ad…fc2ebacked Yes | 45c | 43.77$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.9 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c7e…35e7backed Yes | 35c | 42.86$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +2.1wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdf10…557ebacked No | 48c | 41.98$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.98 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b11…2976backed Yes | 56c | 41.07$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 499 | 41.7%208 W · 291 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd721…57a7backed Yes | 36c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 451 | 27.1%122 W · 329 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa019…7935backed No | 56c | 39.9$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.51 | 53 | 75.5%40 W · 13 L | +5.7wins | +0.11per pick | 65cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 56c | 36.76$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.73 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 56c | 36.31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.1 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc89…095cbacked Yes | 33c | 36$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | +2.3wins | +0.07per pick | 28cpaid | +52.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc498…8ba5backed Yes | 35c | 35.83$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 424 | 38.9%165 W · 259 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9631…a38cbacked Yes | 44c | 35$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 497 | 50.3%250 W · 247 L | +20.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5012…9a5cbacked No | 78c | 33.66$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.3 | 69 | 34.8%24 W · 45 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb830…2ff3backed No | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6160…fdfcbacked No | 46c | 32.03$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.39 | 35 | 54.3%19 W · 16 L | +5.3wins | +0.15per pick | 39cpaid | +34.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa37d…b2b4backed Yes | 37c | 31.48$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.78 | 321 | 57.3%184 W · 137 L | +17.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8888…bebabacked Yes | 35c | 31.46$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7658…e770backed No | 53c | 31$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.67 | 75 | 46.7%35 W · 40 L | -5.6wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed No | 49c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.3 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbc29…b3b6backed Yes | 36c | 28.54$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.27 | 82 | 52.4%43 W · 39 L | +5.3wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1b24…6e4abacked No | 50c | 26.88$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.44 | 72 | 33.3%24 W · 48 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64bd…82cfbacked No | 57c | 26.09$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.22 | 187 | 61%114 W · 73 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ee…44a4backed Yes | 48c | 25.97$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.59 | 113 | 41.6%47 W · 66 L | +7.4wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed No | 52c | 24.86$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.04 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c9b…994dbacked Yes | 51c | 24.78$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.63 | 166 | 34.9%58 W · 108 L | -6.1wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa4…fc3dbacked No | 78c | 23.5$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.17 | 277 | 56%155 W · 122 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0043…dadebacked Yes | 50c | 21.92$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.99 | 39 | 23.1%9 W · 30 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked No | 50c | 21.83$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.82 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd6c…1e6dbacked No | 77c | 21.53$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.94 | 327 | 38.2%125 W · 202 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d9c…1450backed No | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 142 | 51.4%73 W · 69 L | -21.9wins | -0.15per pick | 67cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x3487…11f5backed Yes | 59c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 96 | 53.1%51 W · 45 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 69c | 18.34$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.75 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd05…0e6ebacked No | 60c | 18$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 77 | 67.5%52 W · 25 L | +5.5wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on March 21?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 71°F or below on March 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 90°F or higher on March 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 76-77°F on March 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 78-79°F on March 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on March 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on March 21?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on March 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on March 21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.