TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on March 21?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$18,717

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,717 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 85 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes23c736.01$166 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$166.411,29833.1%430 W · 868 L+39.5wins+0.03per pick30cpaid+4.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe5a1…3840backed Yes43c380$163 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$162.931,15327.1%312 W · 841 L+16.9wins+0.01per pick26cpaid-0.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x331b…193fbacked Yes33c324.89$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.7290040.7%366 W · 534 L+112.3wins+0.12per pick28cpaid+63.8%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes59c311.13$184 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$183.84,52526.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L+62.2wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-21.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf1f8…f4cbbacked Yes13c301.21$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.1481234.1%277 W · 535 L+56.9wins+0.07per pick27cpaid+16.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x354d…eb8fbacked Yes47c250.92$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.8370133.5%235 W · 466 L+13.4wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+7.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes46c236.52$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.586,78739.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L+256.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2a04…b254backed Yes39c202.99$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.0959818.4%110 W · 488 L-8.7wins-0.01per pick20cpaid-25.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x47af…3999backed No51c200$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.4432652.1%170 W · 156 L+7.6wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6371…fc91backed Yes61c196.5$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.349836.7%36 W · 62 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-20.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes15c183.42$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.7417,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No59c180.27$107 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.6712,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x46b3…d3debacked Yes6c171.67$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.0524414.3%35 W · 209 L-7.3wins-0.03per pick17cpaid-11.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6987…846bbacked Yes69c159.81$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1109040%36 W · 54 L-3.0wins-0.03per pick43cpaid+6.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x993f…35cbbacked No69c149.12$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.841,84263.5%1,170 W · 672 L-42.5wins-0.02per pick66cpaid-6.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed No56c139.12$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.598,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7ce2…80edbacked Yes9c133.53$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124223.8%10 W · 32 L-1.5wins-0.04per pick27cpaid-50.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4bdf…41dfbacked No64c123.5$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.274344.2%19 W · 24 L-5.1wins-0.12per pick56cpaid-37.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Yes10c116.17$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.527,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0xbe63…2de4backed Yes65c115.85$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7511546.1%53 W · 62 L-5.4wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-7.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0b87…9414backed No30c109.12$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.392,00138.4%768 W · 1,233 L+1.7wins0.00per pick38cpaid-7.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2cec…a79bbacked Yes20c106.7$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.3413215.9%21 W · 111 L-7.0wins-0.05per pick21cpaid-14.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xbd26…5b5cbacked Yes49c99.99$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4911533%38 W · 77 L-7.4wins-0.06per pick40cpaid-24.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9bda…439fbacked No65c97.65$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.4459440.6%241 W · 353 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0832…8681backed No64c95$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.1234651.2%177 W · 169 L-6.6wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-8.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0d42…f124backed No40c90.89$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.4952322.6%118 W · 405 L-18.0wins-0.03per pick26cpaid-44.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6dce…4490backed Yes45c89$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.941,28519.5%250 W · 1,035 L+44.3wins+0.03per pick16cpaid+11.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x28ab…2048backed No48c86.04$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.7413531.9%43 W · 92 L+0.1wins0.00per pick32cpaid-14.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcce6…77d1backed Yes34c83.95$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.549139.6%36 W · 55 L+2.4wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-16.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3085…7568backed Yes14c83.11$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.032347.3%17 W · 217 L+0.1wins0.00per pick7cpaid-23.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x83fe…23d9backed No75c80$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.432760.6%198 W · 129 L-4.4wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-7.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7dde…9d98backed Yes64c78.13$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$503565.7%23 W · 12 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick65cpaid-4.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3abf…b143backed Yes47c71.07$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.4524932.9%82 W · 167 L+9.0wins+0.04per pick29cpaid-32.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xaa28…090bbacked Yes36c69.44$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.32,23915%335 W · 1,904 L+54.6wins+0.02per pick13cpaid+24%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2205…8089backed No78c67.69$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.8929056.2%163 W · 127 L-5.6wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-6.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6734…0439backed No48c67$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.74425%1 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.14per pick39cpaid-48.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1c78…42e6backed No31c65.12$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.1259742%251 W · 346 L+96.8wins+0.16per pick26cpaid+31.7%equal weight67+0.16 edge/pick
0x1408…b4f8backed No55c64.61$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.051,60542.9%689 W · 916 L-86.9wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-23.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xabfb…12e5backed Yes19c64.16$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.4732818.3%60 W · 268 L+15.8wins+0.05per pick13cpaid-10.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe712…9a10backed Yes23c61.75$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1486847.7%414 W · 454 L+40.7wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7943…27a1backed Yes54c58.36$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.5932044.7%143 W · 177 L+9.6wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+4.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe7f4…5d3dbacked Yes69c56.77$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.21752.9%9 W · 8 L-3.0wins-0.18per pick71cpaid-26.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x3865…fcbebacked No44c56.64$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.641,00260.9%610 W · 392 L-26.2wins-0.03per pick63cpaid-7.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8ef3…ac46backed Yes52c55.38$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.819449%95 W · 99 L+0.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x59d4…b745backed Yes50c50$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.927540%110 W · 165 L-10.0wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-13.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa842…90aebacked No49c50$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.51030%3 W · 7 L-2.0wins-0.20per pick50cpaid-43.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x2986…b3a9backed No30c50$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$352,99531.4%940 W · 2,055 L+41.6wins+0.01per pick30cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf51b…ca1bbacked No31c49.99$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.491,27434%433 W · 841 L+46.9wins+0.04per pick30cpaid+4.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x77f0…2b1fbacked No56c49.72$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.063,02849.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L+16.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+10.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeb8c…2c71backed No62c48.47$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.479053.3%48 W · 42 L-6.8wins-0.08per pick61cpaid-18.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No49c46.23$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.734,12060.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x32e5…931abacked No58c45.34$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.22740.7%11 W · 16 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick37cpaid+10.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x24fe…3419backed Yes25c44.72$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.0121235.8%76 W · 136 L+10.4wins+0.05per pick31cpaid+5.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x20ad…fc2ebacked Yes45c43.77$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.9850%4 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-9.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4c7e…35e7backed Yes35c42.86$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152751.9%14 W · 13 L+2.1wins+0.08per pick44cpaid+0.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdf10…557ebacked No48c41.98$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.98850%4 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+7.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5b11…2976backed Yes56c41.07$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2349941.7%208 W · 291 L-2.2wins0.00per pick42cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd721…57a7backed Yes36c40$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.445127.1%122 W · 329 L+7.1wins+0.02per pick25cpaid+25.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa019…7935backed No56c39.9$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.515375.5%40 W · 13 L+5.7wins+0.11per pick65cpaid+17.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x4add…6fe5backed Yes56c36.76$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.731,45236.8%534 W · 918 L+12.3wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3681…4e48backed No56c36.31$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.11,37556%770 W · 605 L+25.7wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+6.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdc89…095cbacked Yes33c36$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.883534.3%12 W · 23 L+2.3wins+0.07per pick28cpaid+52.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc498…8ba5backed Yes35c35.83$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.542438.9%165 W · 259 L-4.6wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-2.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9631…a38cbacked Yes44c35$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.449750.3%250 W · 247 L+20.9wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+24.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5012…9a5cbacked No78c33.66$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.36934.8%24 W · 45 L+1.4wins+0.02per pick33cpaid-33.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb830…2ff3backed No60c33.33$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.333650%18 W · 18 L-1.7wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-11.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6160…fdfcbacked No46c32.03$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.393554.3%19 W · 16 L+5.3wins+0.15per pick39cpaid+34.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xa37d…b2b4backed Yes37c31.48$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.7832157.3%184 W · 137 L+17.4wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+3.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8888…bebabacked Yes35c31.46$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112433.3%8 W · 16 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-14.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7658…e770backed No53c31$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.677546.7%35 W · 40 L-5.6wins-0.07per pick54cpaid-6.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x35c4…d144backed No49c30$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.31,25562.5%785 W · 470 L+99.5wins+0.08per pick55cpaid+16.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xbc29…b3b6backed Yes36c28.54$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.278252.4%43 W · 39 L+5.3wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+1.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1b24…6e4abacked No50c26.88$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.447233.3%24 W · 48 L-2.1wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-13.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x64bd…82cfbacked No57c26.09$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.2218761%114 W · 73 L-6.0wins-0.03per pick64cpaid-7.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf9ee…44a4backed Yes48c25.97$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.5911341.6%47 W · 66 L+7.4wins+0.07per pick35cpaid+20.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf7f4…1e34backed No52c24.86$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.041,31245%590 W · 722 L+33.6wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+2.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6c9b…994dbacked Yes51c24.78$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.6316634.9%58 W · 108 L-6.1wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-41.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5aa4…fc3dbacked No78c23.5$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.1727756%155 W · 122 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick57cpaid-5.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0043…dadebacked Yes50c21.92$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.993923.1%9 W · 30 L-2.0wins-0.05per pick28cpaid-43.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa34d…b57fbacked No50c21.83$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.8299962.8%627 W · 372 L+37.5wins+0.04per pick59cpaid+2.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbd6c…1e6dbacked No77c21.53$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.9432738.2%125 W · 202 L+8.7wins+0.03per pick36cpaid+7.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7d9c…1450backed No78c20$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.414251.4%73 W · 69 L-21.9wins-0.15per pick67cpaid-29.8%equal weight35-0.13 edge/pick
0x3487…11f5backed Yes59c20$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.89653.1%51 W · 45 L+4.5wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+15.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No69c18.34$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.754,96168.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L+65.6wins+0.01per pick67cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfd05…0e6ebacked No60c18$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.27767.5%52 W · 25 L+5.5wins+0.07per pick60cpaid+11.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.