Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on June 19?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0e17fb421e75038d0acd3354e7c740c7b1be3f97158b00e55b2c015c6c15714c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,526
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,268
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,526 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1c3b…2bf8backed Yes | 3c | 1,078$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | -5.0wins | -0.18per pick | 53cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 20c | 426.23$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.07 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 47c | 310.14$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.49 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbc13…5eb6backed No | 69c | 280.97$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.79 | 517 | 62.3%322 W · 195 L | -15.5wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ead…0b4dbacked Yes | 19c | 257.64$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 49 | 22.4%11 W · 38 L | -5.0wins | -0.10per pick | 33cpaid | -47.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb4ce…49e0backed Yes | 50c | 235.18$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.7 | 455 | 40%182 W · 273 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 76c | 217.8$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.88 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 16c | 173.11$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.39 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xe7db…959bbacked Yes | 18c | 167.36$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.49 | 1,018 | 25.5%260 W · 758 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52dc…33c9backed Yes | 42c | 166.6$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.1 | 769 | 36.3%279 W · 490 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a75…bc59backed Yes | 15c | 133.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x497b…a32abacked Yes | 28c | 117.67$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 216 | 33.8%73 W · 143 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a1…1d37backed Yes | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.91 | 320 | 41.9%134 W · 186 L | +10.0wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa09d…af80backed No | 63c | 79.37$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.37 | 211 | 50.7%107 W · 104 L | +6.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 77c | 77.43$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.45 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae4c…d114backed Yes | 21c | 69.89$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.87 | 191 | 48.7%93 W · 98 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 19c | 65.76$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.37 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 29c | 64.53$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.58 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x8b6f…b9bebacked No | 78c | 63.65$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.79 | 224 | 46.4%104 W · 120 L | +31.1wins | +0.14per pick | 33cpaid | +35.4%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x2429…02d9backed No | 45c | 60$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 177 | 47.5%84 W · 93 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 42c | 58.35$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.7 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2eb8…0d00backed Yes | 37c | 53.83$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 206 | 62.1%128 W · 78 L | -14.0wins | -0.07per pick | 69cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe037…8a91backed No | 55c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 178 | 41.6%74 W · 104 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50b1…0793backed No | 59c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.5 | 436 | 63.5%277 W · 159 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb86b…aabfbacked No | 50c | 49.85$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.93 | 158 | 68.4%108 W · 50 L | +12.7wins | +0.08per pick | 60cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe550…6f6ebacked No | 79c | 44.99$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.45 | 141 | 61.7%87 W · 54 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed No | 59c | 41.91$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.39 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9cc…59abbacked No | 77c | 38.9$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.75 | 688 | 67.2%462 W · 226 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 77c | 36.4$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.22 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ecc…c745backed No | 49c | 34.98$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.84 | 179 | 47.5%85 W · 94 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed Yes | 47c | 31$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.62 | 853 | 30.7%262 W · 591 L | +28.2wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 79c | 27.14$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.74 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 78c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc3e4…f053backed No | 49c | 22.5$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.55 | 180 | 46.1%83 W · 97 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x488c…8c1cbacked No | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 375 | 32.8%123 W · 252 L | +36.4wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | +109.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x335f…51c4backed No | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2349…1646backed No | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.9 | 482 | 61.8%298 W · 184 L | +43.5wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on June 19?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 28°C on June 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C on June 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on June 19?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on June 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on June 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C or higher on June 19?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.