Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on June 19?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x084b9f4a28affbb930c35386f8f9ebbec230b98d81bafc2378f4de473d65731b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,969
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,148
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,969 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x497b…a32abacked Yes | 75c | 389.66$293 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.6 | 216 | 33.8%73 W · 143 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x488c…8c1cbacked Yes | 25c | 318.48$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$238.65 | 375 | 32.8%123 W · 252 L | +36.4wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | +109.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5331…3672backed No | 76c | 286.71$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.56 | 25 | 68%17 W · 8 L | +1.6wins | +0.07per pick | 61cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5647…de1dbacked Yes | 23c | 282.53$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.53 | 479 | 35.3%169 W · 310 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 76c | 217.8$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.38 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 25c | 165$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.31 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 40c | 159.62$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.73 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 28c | 153.1$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.69 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 23c | 140.53$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.22 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 73c | 140$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.2 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 75c | 138.51$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.34 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 61c | 137.7$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.23 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 27c | 135.72$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.4 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf668…e47abacked Yes | 32c | 130.7$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.56 | 181 | 31.5%57 W · 124 L | -6.9wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5470…0af7backed No | 78c | 127.97$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 328 | 72%236 W · 92 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 73cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 52c | 126$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.29 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 39c | 123.37$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.12 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 22c | 121.57$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.8 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 26c | 120.92$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.92 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x50c8…f649backed Yes | 32c | 114.63$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.95 | 199 | 47.7%95 W · 104 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0b…e169backed Yes | 36c | 112.55$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.52 | 52 | 28.8%15 W · 37 L | -3.6wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -34%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2d0f…81aabacked Yes | 80c | 109.51$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.27 | 270 | 79.3%214 W · 56 L | +52.5wins | +0.19per pick | 60cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0xae4c…d114backed Yes | 26c | 107$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.18 | 191 | 48.7%93 W · 98 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 25c | 101.48$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.39 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a1…1d37backed Yes | 26c | 100$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.43 | 320 | 41.9%134 W · 186 L | +10.0wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x79c9…b2f1backed Yes | 16c | 99.72$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.71 | 173 | 10.4%18 W · 155 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36ef…0958backed Yes | 30c | 99.51$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.41 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b98…8595backed Yes | 19c | 91.13$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.81 | 299 | 13%39 W · 260 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -11%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 72c | 86.87$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.59 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…6983backed Yes | 27c | 86.3$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.62 | 874 | 37.3%326 W · 548 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 28c | 86$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.92 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0947…9e92backed Yes | 19c | 85.38$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.16 | 581 | 52%302 W · 279 L | +8.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c8b…89d6backed Yes | 31c | 77.93$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.42 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 40c | 72.99$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.2 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0729…5f54backed Yes | 66c | 72.43$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.55 | 671 | 58.6%393 W · 278 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 27c | 66.35$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.76 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 35c | 63.05$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.83 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 26c | 61.02$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.23 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4978…ea9abacked Yes | 29c | 60.7$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.81 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | +3.4wins | +0.13per pick | 28cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8473…5511backed Yes | 25c | 60$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 91 | 28.6%26 W · 65 L | +5.6wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6f70…891dbacked Yes | 24c | 60$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.55 | 66 | 34.8%23 W · 43 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4bb5…dfcabacked Yes | 29c | 59.46$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.15 | 239 | 51%122 W · 117 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 75c | 56.12$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.06 | 1,088 | 55.5%604 W · 484 L | -27.6wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcff7…2fb1backed No | 75c | 55.07$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.41 | 214 | 51.9%111 W · 103 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 63c | 54.24$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.32 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 75c | 52.68$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.37 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x27ab…e521backed No | 76c | 52.04$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.76 | 659 | 65.4%431 W · 228 L | -12.7wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed Yes | 62c | 50.86$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.25 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe7ab…ea2fbacked Yes | 24c | 50$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 176 | 37.5%66 W · 110 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked Yes | 72c | 45.94$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.93 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b6f…b9bebacked Yes | 23c | 43.75$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.75 | 224 | 46.4%104 W · 120 L | +31.1wins | +0.14per pick | 33cpaid | +35.4%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x8b23…3ca8backed Yes | 29c | 42.3$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.02 | 235 | 38.3%90 W · 145 L | -11.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -18%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 55c | 40.2$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.18 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0982…24e3backed Yes | 35c | 40$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 351 | 37.9%133 W · 218 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 74c | 35$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.95 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 31c | 34.98$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.73 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe29f…cdd8backed Yes | 33c | 33.27$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.4 | 166 | 41%68 W · 98 L | +8.3wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9631…a38cbacked Yes | 60c | 31$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.4 | 497 | 50.3%250 W · 247 L | +20.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 71c | 30$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.3 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf370…4f88backed No | 38c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.3 | 388 | 60.1%233 W · 155 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 70c | 29.2$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.76 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 75c | 28.69$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.52 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed No | 68c | 22.54$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.38 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7a1b…1c78backed No | 65c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 174 | 60.3%105 W · 69 L | +6.1wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 73c | 16.93$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.43 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6424…2718backed No | 74c | 16.24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.05 | 427 | 54.6%233 W · 194 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 74c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.05 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 72c | 14.68$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.57 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on June 19?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 28°C on June 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C on June 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on June 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on June 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on June 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C or higher on June 19?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.