Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 19?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbc45dc717b21e93e928a0db66855e54f2965a59b6e8df61d87ecc8dad3efb819
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,110
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,882
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,110 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1941…deeabacked Yes | 0c | 4,904$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa09d…af80backed Yes | 4c | 2,100$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76 | 211 | 50.7%107 W · 104 L | +6.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4ce…49e0backed Yes | 7c | 1,502$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.54 | 455 | 40%182 W · 273 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 2c | 1,247$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.25 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6bc5…33d3backed Yes | 4c | 530$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.8 | 98 | 57.1%56 W · 42 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7db…959bbacked Yes | 22c | 357.45$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.4 | 1,018 | 25.5%260 W · 758 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00ad…4171backed Yes | 16c | 300$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.2 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 21c | 280.59$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.98 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 74c | 256.83$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.47 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x497b…a32abacked Yes | 55c | 232.31$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128 | 216 | 33.8%73 W · 143 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a1…1d37backed Yes | 31c | 172.75$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.96 | 320 | 41.9%134 W · 186 L | +10.0wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc1…a3bbbacked Yes | 22c | 143.61$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.59 | 876 | 29.2%256 W · 620 L | -53.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 80c | 138.51$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.77 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52dc…33c9backed Yes | 47c | 119.84$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 769 | 36.3%279 W · 490 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 19c | 116.34$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.62 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 13c | 111.86$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.83 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 54c | 101.63$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.8 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 31c | 96.09$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.24 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 79c | 86.88$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.91 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 22c | 85.29$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.79 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a75…bc59backed Yes | 24c | 83.28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 19c | 82.54$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.42 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c3b…2bf8backed Yes | 52c | 82.29$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | -5.0wins | -0.18per pick | 53cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd11c…ff7dbacked Yes | 19c | 79.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 347 | 48.7%169 W · 178 L | +13.5wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea21…f753backed Yes | 30c | 77.48$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.48 | 236 | 68.2%161 W · 75 L | +18.8wins | +0.08per pick | 60cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 38c | 69$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.6 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7fef…e307backed Yes | 19c | 67.97$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 71c | 62.48$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.36 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8882…03fbbacked Yes | 18c | 62.38$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 517 | 33.3%172 W · 345 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9196…d934backed No | 27c | 57.93$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.11 | 644 | 60.6%390 W · 254 L | +92.2wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x3430…14c2backed Yes | 69c | 57.63$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 71cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27ab…e521backed No | 79c | 52.04$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.99 | 659 | 65.4%431 W · 228 L | -12.7wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4bb5…dfcabacked Yes | 68c | 51.95$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.47 | 239 | 51%122 W · 117 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 21c | 51.03$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.71 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 79c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.3 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f3…52d8backed No | 29c | 49.98$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.49 | 190 | 71.6%136 W · 54 L | +11.9wins | +0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 46c | 44.99$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.45 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe4f0…6450backed Yes | 31c | 35.58$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.03 | 141 | 19.1%27 W · 114 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…33c9backed Yes | 73c | 34$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.82 | 896 | 61.7%553 W · 343 L | +15.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ef7…647bbacked Yes | 32c | 31.72$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked Yes | 62c | 31.32$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.47 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 76c | 31.19$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa89c…143dbacked Yes | 64c | 28.18$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.39per pick | 64cpaid | -64.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a7c…d7b8backed No | 41c | 27.59$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.37 | 225 | 50.7%114 W · 111 L | +11.8wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked No | 62c | 27.36$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.48 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7da5…0865backed Yes | 70c | 27.1$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 48 | 58.3%28 W · 20 L | -3.3wins | -0.07per pick | 65cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked Yes | 62c | 26.77$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.55 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8144…8472backed No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 239 | 58.2%139 W · 100 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 78c | 15.83$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.48 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 78c | 14.04$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.09 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 79c | 13.79$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.84 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 19?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 28°C on June 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C on June 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on June 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on June 19?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on June 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on June 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C or higher on June 19?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.