Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 64-65°F on April 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0e29abba3c6de729246ecc758d258bef2a6e30bbc5097c72f2bd19a5d2ccaa9c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,592
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,418
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,592 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 24c | 383.21$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.69 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2fd1…d384backed Yes | 6c | 300$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 148 | 6.8%10 W · 138 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 72c | 277.75$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.77 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6400…331abacked No | 77c | 275.26$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.4 | 424 | 69.1%293 W · 131 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 26c | 239.66$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.56 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5fdf…28a2backed Yes | 24c | 212.75$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.06 | 561 | 31.7%178 W · 383 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09a8…aff0backed Yes | 23c | 171.68$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.49 | 149 | 44.3%66 W · 83 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 7c | 168.51$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.47 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcdb6…2992backed Yes | 20c | 150$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 71 | 16.9%12 W · 59 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e48…14d7backed Yes | 14c | 140$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +2.4wins | +0.14per pick | 45cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x607c…8e7ebacked Yes | 14c | 136.51$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.11 | 960 | 15%144 W · 816 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab8a…8dc7backed Yes | 17c | 131.13$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.29 | 133 | 22.6%30 W · 103 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -26%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdfe4…d1c0backed No | 75c | 130.11$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.61 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaff7…fb8bbacked Yes | 15c | 127.64$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.57 | 513 | 21.2%109 W · 404 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c7e…c08ebacked No | 77c | 114.82$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.93 | 570 | 38.1%217 W · 353 L | -40.7wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -33%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcec2…65e6backed Yes | 28c | 98.6$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.61 | 31 | 16.1%5 W · 26 L | -2.3wins | -0.07per pick | 24cpaid | -54.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x951c…d8c7backed Yes | 24c | 96.58$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.18 | 683 | 35.4%242 W · 441 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93ed…35c4backed No | 74c | 81.21$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.21 | 178 | 61.2%109 W · 69 L | -8.0wins | -0.04per pick | 66cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 74c | 77.62$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.19 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a06…15a9backed Yes | 21c | 69.56$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.78 | 567 | 21.3%121 W · 446 L | -25.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaad7…cf8fbacked No | 70c | 69.1$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.73 | 861 | 73.2%630 W · 231 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd51e…6465backed No | 75c | 66.66$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.66 | 375 | 33.6%126 W · 249 L | -11.9wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x74ea…b265backed Yes | 17c | 60.8$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.51 | 211 | 42.7%90 W · 121 L | +8.9wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5652…2aa5backed Yes | 20c | 59.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 161 | 57.1%92 W · 69 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 28c | 57.33$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.77 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 77c | 54.64$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.49 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb233…9004backed Yes | 25c | 51.41$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.68 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -2.4wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e3…f004backed Yes | 22c | 46.75$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.28 | 277 | 32.5%90 W · 187 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 77c | 46.5$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.7 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe960…734ebacked Yes | 28c | 46.4$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.99 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.18per pick | 47cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x652d…6063backed Yes | 22c | 46.34$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.19 | 93 | 22.6%21 W · 72 L | -8.1wins | -0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x879e…e339backed Yes | 26c | 39.92$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.26 | 175 | 55.4%97 W · 78 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe56…700cbacked Yes | 26c | 39.4$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd04c…c640backed No | 80c | 37.5$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 233 | 49.8%116 W · 117 L | -15.7wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -27%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 73c | 36.53$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.73 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x997f…000abacked No | 80c | 36.12$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.22 | 145 | 48.3%70 W · 75 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +36.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7cf…7825backed No | 75c | 29.71$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.35 | 289 | 54.3%157 W · 132 L | -8.1wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39fa…0b7dbacked No | 75c | 26.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 407 | 77.1%314 W · 93 L | +28.1wins | +0.07per pick | 70cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad7…347abacked No | 79c | 24.89$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.33 | 729 | 52.4%382 W · 347 L | +34.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked No | 67c | 22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.27 | 1,115 | 63.4%707 W · 408 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8454…3587backed No | 79c | 21.5$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.46 | 273 | 76.6%209 W · 64 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 76cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 68c | 20.7$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.62 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e75…305ebacked No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 119 | 65.5%78 W · 41 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 68cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50b1…0793backed No | 79c | 19.58$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.11 | 436 | 63.5%277 W · 159 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2671…a5fabacked No | 78c | 16.16$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.48 | 190 | 59.5%113 W · 77 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2869…527dbacked No | 80c | 14.37$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.88 | 937 | 34.9%327 W · 610 L | -203.5wins | -0.22per pick | 57cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xc902…ec67backed No | 78c | 14.22$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.13 | 23 | 8.7%2 W · 21 L | -2.5wins | -0.11per pick | 19cpaid | -63.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 64-65°F on April 15?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be 55°F or below on April 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 62-63°F on April 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 66-67°F on April 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 68-69°F on April 15?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 70-71°F on April 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 72-73°F on April 15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.