Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 68-69°F on April 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xda84e5d992764876cd3182b373099e1b937a0a1c6b16fbdb591af3ba0831c5ec
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,603
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,504
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,603 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd04c…c640backed No | 1c | 3,187$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.83 | 233 | 49.8%116 W · 117 L | -15.7wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -27%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x213e…5e0fbacked Yes | 35c | 755.99$265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$491.07 | 657 | 49.8%327 W · 330 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 28c | 514.94$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$370.45 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked Yes | 21c | 506.1$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$399.13 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4701…ca83backed No | 71c | 350$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248.5 | 164 | 56.7%93 W · 71 L | -9.6wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 66c | 316.44$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.39 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 58c | 303.96$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.3 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5fdf…28a2backed Yes | 21c | 243.89$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.67 | 561 | 31.7%178 W · 383 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 58c | 240.41$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.87 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcaaa…52e9backed Yes | 42c | 195.04$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.44 | 54 | 38.9%21 W · 33 L | -4.1wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed No | 14c | 184.66$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.23 | 841 | 24%202 W · 639 L | -35.9wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa081…e7a0backed No | 63c | 172.79$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.24 | 389 | 61.7%240 W · 149 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x74ea…b265backed Yes | 39c | 167.91$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.05 | 211 | 42.7%90 W · 121 L | +8.9wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcdb6…2992backed Yes | 17c | 167.72$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.79 | 71 | 16.9%12 W · 59 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe00f…abd9backed Yes | 35c | 140.48$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.19 | 121 | 47.9%58 W · 63 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 26c | 127.88$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.43 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfe4…d1c0backed No | 78c | 126.06$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.75 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x607c…8e7ebacked Yes | 18c | 117.32$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.72 | 960 | 15%144 W · 816 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c7e…c08ebacked No | 77c | 113.93$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.95 | 570 | 38.1%217 W · 353 L | -40.7wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -33%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x309c…09b5backed No | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 288 | 39.9%115 W · 173 L | -13.1wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x951c…d8c7backed Yes | 27c | 97.96$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.51 | 683 | 35.4%242 W · 441 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 23c | 94.75$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.6 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x652d…6063backed No | 24c | 87.4$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.83 | 93 | 22.6%21 W · 72 L | -8.1wins | -0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdd38…ddadbacked No | 74c | 80.44$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.82 | 254 | 49.2%125 W · 129 L | -8.5wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce5d…5b70backed Yes | 31c | 79.38$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.53 | 86 | 32.6%28 W · 58 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x17f0…20febacked No | 77c | 76.52$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.6 | 151 | 6.6%10 W · 141 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2dcf…c0f2backed Yes | 18c | 74.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.29 | 167 | 9%15 W · 152 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 70c | 74.93$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.71 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 23c | 72.83$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.77 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked No | 31c | 70$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.7 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3887…9496backed No | 74c | 67.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.79 | 243 | 70%170 W · 73 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7cf…7825backed No | 73c | 61.14$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.92 | 289 | 54.3%157 W · 132 L | -8.1wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5652…2aa5backed Yes | 24c | 60$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.6 | 161 | 57.1%92 W · 69 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4179…cceebacked No | 78c | 57.54$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.03 | 429 | 76.5%328 W · 101 L | +4.5wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…67b0backed No | 67c | 51.06$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.14 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -23%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x470b…c331backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 147 | 44.2%65 W · 82 L | -5.5wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…137ebacked No | 72c | 48.99$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.27 | 136 | 63.2%86 W · 50 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64c0…b4b9backed Yes | 21c | 48.65$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.55 | 241 | 9.5%23 W · 218 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca71…610bbacked No | 79c | 44.04$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.64 | 108 | 65.7%71 W · 37 L | +13.2wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5da1…a003backed Yes | 40c | 40.96$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.39 | 171 | 38.6%66 W · 105 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 52c | 38.69$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.49 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 63c | 33.81$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.25 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xa287…14a8backed No | 76c | 33.63$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.7 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | -2.5wins | -0.11per pick | 75cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 67c | 29.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.62 | 1,313 | 76.1%999 W · 314 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2490…11a3backed No | 58c | 28.74$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.67 | 70 | 61.4%43 W · 27 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 58c | 27.78$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.11 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc524…3633backed No | 74c | 26.26$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.43 | 20 | 80%16 W · 4 L | +2.0wins | +0.10per pick | 70cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd611…53c8backed No | 70c | 26.2$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.24 | 72 | 77.8%56 W · 16 L | +3.6wins | +0.05per pick | 73cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2869…527dbacked No | 74c | 25.7$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.93 | 937 | 34.9%327 W · 610 L | -203.5wins | -0.22per pick | 57cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…b586backed No | 61c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.25 | 907 | 34.5%313 W · 594 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09a8…aff0backed No | 48c | 23$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.04 | 149 | 44.3%66 W · 83 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e75…305ebacked No | 71c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.15 | 119 | 65.5%78 W · 41 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 68cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed No | 67c | 19.32$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.97 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4be0…c37dbacked No | 73c | 14.6$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.65 | 190 | 58.9%112 W · 78 L | -8.2wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7515…0f90backed No | 69c | 14.55$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 159 | 54.7%87 W · 72 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2671…a5fabacked No | 74c | 13.94$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.31 | 190 | 59.5%113 W · 77 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 68-69°F on April 15?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be 55°F or below on April 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 62-63°F on April 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 64-65°F on April 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 66-67°F on April 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 70-71°F on April 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 72-73°F on April 15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.