Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 66-67°F on April 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x290b246c947de37f667bdf8d63521157f12895e67602ba26d8184bc1fc804db0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,496
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,150
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,496 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xca71…610bbacked No | 73c | 453.96$329 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.52 | 108 | 65.7%71 W · 37 L | +13.2wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb7…6f27backed Yes | 3c | 400$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 600 | 4.2%25 W · 575 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 32c | 285.48$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.81 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 12c | 239.86$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.96 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6517…573fbacked No | 62c | 220.22$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.46 | 44 | 52.3%23 W · 21 L | -3.8wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe7fb…5fb7backed Yes | 39c | 197.9$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.22 | 69 | 36.2%25 W · 44 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 34c | 176.62$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.09 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fdf…28a2backed Yes | 30c | 169.16$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.75 | 561 | 31.7%178 W · 383 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a3b…957bbacked Yes | 25c | 139.08$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.33 | 370 | 56.5%209 W · 161 L | +31.7wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +19%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 58c | 130.71$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.36 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 38c | 127.35$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.41 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6400…331abacked Yes | 34c | 117.03$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.4 | 424 | 69.1%293 W · 131 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74ea…b265backed Yes | 40c | 109.11$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.16 | 211 | 42.7%90 W · 121 L | +8.9wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75d3…3f0ebacked No | 64c | 100.65$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.35 | 209 | 58.4%122 W · 87 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x607c…8e7ebacked Yes | 31c | 100.29$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.2 | 960 | 15%144 W · 816 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74b7…14e9backed Yes | 49c | 99.63$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.69 | 66 | 45.5%30 W · 36 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x951c…d8c7backed Yes | 38c | 97.69$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.12 | 683 | 35.4%242 W · 441 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 59c | 95.88$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.67 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 32c | 81.09$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.27 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa4…fc3dbacked No | 70c | 77.6$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.32 | 277 | 56%155 W · 122 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3887…9496backed No | 69c | 72.95$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.95 | 243 | 70%170 W · 73 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7fd…59aebacked Yes | 35c | 72.75$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.67 | 65 | 24.6%16 W · 49 L | -5.0wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf023…6ac7backed No | 70c | 63.71$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.21 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd04c…c640backed No | 47c | 60.45$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.04 | 233 | 49.8%116 W · 117 L | -15.7wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -27%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5652…2aa5backed Yes | 33c | 59.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 161 | 57.1%92 W · 69 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcaaa…52e9backed Yes | 46c | 59.01$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.27 | 54 | 38.9%21 W · 33 L | -4.1wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 35c | 58.55$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.69 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe07e…0e7ebacked Yes | 49c | 51.02$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 334 | 50.6%169 W · 165 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed Yes | 23c | 50.7$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.66 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe960…734ebacked Yes | 48c | 47.42$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.96 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.18per pick | 47cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0dbf…1b94backed No | 42c | 47.1$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.32 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd7cf…7825backed No | 63c | 41.13$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.28 | 289 | 54.3%157 W · 132 L | -8.1wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 37c | 40.53$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.92 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02e4…416fbacked No | 61c | 39.64$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.63 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf136…f66abacked Yes | 36c | 37.64$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.55 | 52 | 36.5%19 W · 33 L | -3.2wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 64c | 36.27$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.06 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6889…8907backed Yes | 33c | 34.71$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.62 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -47.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4701…ca83backed No | 66c | 33.05$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.36 | 164 | 56.7%93 W · 71 L | -9.6wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ff9…bf35backed No | 66c | 32.5$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.96 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f57…79ebbacked Yes | 34c | 30.43$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.35 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 59c | 30.19$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.43 | 1,313 | 76.1%999 W · 314 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x958a…9f65backed No | 66c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.35 | 558 | 55.2%308 W · 250 L | -10.0wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e99…b482backed Yes | 42c | 29.09$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 425 | 44%187 W · 238 L | +15.1wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 53c | 27.67$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xf55f…8e92backed No | 68c | 26.09$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.35 | 165 | 48.5%80 W · 85 L | -13.3wins | -0.08per pick | 57cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xae58…f81bbacked Yes | 43c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.75 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 28cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf279…dc39backed Yes | 50c | 22.9$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.41 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.1wins | -0.23per pick | 46cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked No | 66c | 22.31$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.7 | 1,115 | 63.4%707 W · 408 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4da0…05c8backed No | 60c | 21.31$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.44 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked No | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed No | 69c | 19.89$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.11 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x171c…942dbacked No | 66c | 17.78$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.05 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -1.8wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe9da…ed70backed No | 65c | 16.59$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.81 | 763 | 71.4%545 W · 218 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c1…d8a6backed No | 67c | 15.42$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.14 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.27per pick | 52cpaid | -62.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 66-67°F on April 15?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be 55°F or below on April 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 62-63°F on April 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 64-65°F on April 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 68-69°F on April 15?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 70-71°F on April 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 72-73°F on April 15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.