Tennis · resolved market
Almaty Open: James Duckworth vs Flavio Cobolli
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0e2ad544f4697a2f7cf8b924b8c01e2a5108cf3f2f677626ac1b1d0f43b273c2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Duckworthof Duckworth, Cobolli
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,659
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,898
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,659 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8191…8a35backed Cobolli | 71c | 7,794$5,495 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,495 | 136 | 41.9%57 W · 79 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd82a…5fcfbacked Duckworth | 35c | 2,432$844 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,588.32 | 189 | 43.4%82 W · 107 L | -8.8wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -11%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Duckworth | 29c | 2,185$645 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,540.73 | 652 | 42.8%279 W · 373 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Duckworth | 43c | 1,006$431 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$574.85 | 2,426 | 47.3%1,148 W · 1,278 L | +45.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Duckworth | 29c | 894.15$259 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$634.85 | 1,039 | 54.6%567 W · 472 L | +37.6wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Cobolli | 69c | 875.58$602 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$602.24 | 2,865 | 44.3%1,269 W · 1,596 L | +6.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Duckworth | 29c | 862$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$612.02 | 627 | 42.4%266 W · 361 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Duckworth | 61c | 648.2$399 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$249.56 | 8,217 | 45.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L | +166.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41cc…26eabacked Duckworth | 33c | 531.82$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$356.32 | 102 | 51%52 W · 50 L | +8.9wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Duckworth | 30c | 495$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$346.5 | 139 | 35.3%49 W · 90 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9354…6502backed Duckworth | 65c | 376.22$243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.23 | 755 | 47.8%361 W · 394 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x875c…d3e8backed Duckworth | 32c | 312.5$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.5 | 102 | 50%51 W · 51 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99fc…ec26backed Duckworth | 32c | 309.38$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.38 | 645 | 40.2%259 W · 386 L | -19.6wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x347a…83e3backed Duckworth | 61c | 261.12$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.11 | 313 | 39.9%125 W · 188 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef5…39edbacked Cobolli | 30c | 260$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 257 | 22.2%57 W · 200 L | -12.3wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Duckworth | 62c | 249.25$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.63 | 1,655 | 50.1%829 W · 826 L | +30.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfa5…af17backed Cobolli | 67c | 208.86$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.11 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 65cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f83…7252backed Cobolli | 45c | 200$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 67 | 19.4%13 W · 54 L | -7.3wins | -0.11per pick | 30cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1ada…43b0backed Cobolli | 34c | 175$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.91 | 238 | 52.1%124 W · 114 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70a1…978abacked Cobolli | 69c | 161.37$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112 | 884 | 46.8%414 W · 470 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52b6…b02ebacked Cobolli | 17c | 158.82$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 115 | 33.9%39 W · 76 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ba0…ff3abacked Cobolli | 68c | 147.06$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 431 | 58.2%251 W · 180 L | -5.2wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Cobolli | 35c | 146$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.02 | 439 | 48.5%213 W · 226 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30ef…70dfbacked Duckworth | 31c | 108.55$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.9 | 441 | 25.4%112 W · 329 L | -11.3wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe3c…a835backed Cobolli | 56c | 102.5$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.2 | 312 | 55.4%173 W · 139 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | 0%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…06c9backed Cobolli | 44c | 100.37$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 260 | 45%117 W · 143 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36bf…2864backed Duckworth | 30c | 99.99$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.99 | 444 | 23.9%106 W · 338 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2db8…e042backed Cobolli | 32c | 78.13$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 749 | 61.8%463 W · 286 L | -5.3wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3064…8943backed Cobolli | 68c | 65$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.2 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25bf…7a56backed Cobolli | 32c | 62.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2,335 | 46.6%1,088 W · 1,247 L | +55.3wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xade8…b0bdbacked Cobolli | 67c | 55$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.85 | 158 | 32.3%51 W · 107 L | -13.6wins | -0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8d40…b4ecbacked Cobolli | 46c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.2 | 135 | 46.7%63 W · 72 L | +11.8wins | +0.09per pick | 38cpaid | +6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2361…e16ebacked Duckworth | 29c | 47.78$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.8 | 44 | 36.4%16 W · 28 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe05e…1ab8backed Cobolli | 39c | 38.51$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.95 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | -5.9wins | -0.21per pick | 50cpaid | -45%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x4eba…f2fabacked Cobolli | 70c | 35.71$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Duckworth | 30c | 35.71$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 951 | 40.1%381 W · 570 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +12%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x91aa…c606backed Cobolli | 63c | 33.07$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.83 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 71cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18e2…ca98backed Cobolli | 69c | 30$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.7 | 94 | 63.8%60 W · 34 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe0…7f8bbacked Cobolli | 51c | 29.55$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb56b…7150backed Cobolli | 68c | 29.41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 165 | 64.8%107 W · 58 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd52…07aabacked Cobolli | 68c | 29.41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 167 | 62.9%105 W · 62 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec10…4d93backed Cobolli | 68c | 29.41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 72 | 63.9%46 W · 26 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f0e…7b1fbacked Cobolli | 69c | 28.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 54 | 59.3%32 W · 22 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a64…bb41backed Cobolli | 69c | 28.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 46 | 56.5%26 W · 20 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb740…2ec1backed Cobolli | 69c | 28.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 351 | 57%200 W · 151 L | -13.4wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7068…8236backed Cobolli | 70c | 28.57$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01cd…c56cbacked Cobolli | 72c | 27.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +1.8wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcba6…bb05backed Duckworth | 57c | 18.1$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.78 | 106 | 51.9%55 W · 51 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.