NHL · resolved market
Lightning vs. Sabres: O/U 5.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0e35c0eb9e4ae3997fbe206fe4e5520f80f2d34bbf950c7358dff0b9e6c708be
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $61,433
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $61,433 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd058…c532backed Over | 60c | 26,700$16,020 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,680 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfee7…d07abacked Under | 40c | 26,700$10,680 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,680 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xada5…db70backed Over | 63c | 1,360$852 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$508.28 | 434 | 56%243 W · 191 L | +16.2wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb071…8205backed Under | 40c | 694$278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$277.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed Under | 37c | 579.74$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.53 | 118 | 33.1%39 W · 79 L | -9.9wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ce…7ec8backed Under | 38c | 500$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190 | 623 | 46.9%292 W · 331 L | -3.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x44ca…907cbacked Under | 38c | 380$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.4 | 183 | 44.8%82 W · 101 L | +9.2wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa145…9542backed Under | 40c | 367$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x806d…6869backed Under | 40c | 355$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef23…5b60backed Under | 38c | 348.36$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.99 | 642 | 42.2%271 W · 371 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b58…2c78backed Under | 40c | 337$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 44c | 333.13$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.45 | 3,704 | 50.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L | +105.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x718d…2b46backed Over | 64c | 328.13$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.13 | 397 | 51.1%203 W · 194 L | -7.4wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6edd…4287backed Over | 60c | 305$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6850…9aa9backed Over | 60c | 301$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.4 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.29per pick | 38cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f01…aababacked Over | 60c | 299$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc510…1658backed Over | 60c | 285$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf59a…7715backed Over | 60c | 275$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Under | 38c | 248.74$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.52 | 538 | 49.4%266 W · 272 L | +10.5wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce62…6719backed Over | 60c | 235$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91a5…b9f8backed Under | 40c | 233$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed Over | 63c | 231$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.79 | 868 | 52.4%455 W · 413 L | +7.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc016…a5a8backed Under | 40c | 229$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x76a3…fe68backed Over | 60c | 211$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1814…88ebbacked Under | 40c | 208$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfbf…075dbacked Over | 60c | 193$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea78…a74ebacked Under | 38c | 190$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.2 | 253 | 37.9%96 W · 157 L | -5.6wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd4aa…a78bbacked Under | 40c | 184.12$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.65 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4869…5c48backed Over | 60c | 184$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3df6…1e9abacked Under | 40c | 183$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Over | 60c | 169.23$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.73 | 2,314 | 46.5%1,075 W · 1,239 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x80fd…6081backed Over | 60c | 168$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc23…8283backed Over | 62c | 160.12$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.12 | 252 | 58.3%147 W · 105 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0209…c794backed Under | 39c | 154$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e33…e9c5backed Over | 60c | 150$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fa5…f8efbacked Under | 39c | 121$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.42 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d54…a756backed Over | 62c | 100$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 150 | 54%81 W · 69 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e69…7a30backed Under | 51c | 98.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 39c | 69.05$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.02 | 1,028 | 53.2%547 W · 481 L | +21.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9e4…e646backed Over | 61c | 62$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.18 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Under | 37c | 60.9$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.53 | 429 | 48.7%209 W · 220 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Under | 36c | 52$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.72 | 1,441 | 49.2%709 W · 732 L | +6.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6630…703cbacked Under | 40c | 50.59$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 66 | 47%31 W · 35 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd99…c06cbacked Over | 68c | 50.09$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.03 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d1…5557backed Over | 52c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 101 | 67.3%68 W · 33 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 64cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf158…0a5fbacked Over | 61c | 47$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.33 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6506…c751backed Over | 61c | 44$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.16 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x463e…4162backed Over | 61c | 42$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.38 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -18%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4861…4fcabacked Over | 56c | 40$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.4 | 227 | 59.5%135 W · 92 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 62c | 39.69$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.26 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75a4…c55fbacked Over | 55c | 39.6$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.82 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x48a9…f42fbacked Under | 40c | 37.44$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3b0…c72bbacked Over | 61c | 32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.48 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4946…e041backed Over | 63c | 30.98$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.46 | 124 | 62.9%78 W · 46 L | +7.8wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Over | 60c | 28.99$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.6 | 1,092 | 50.4%550 W · 542 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Under | 38c | 27.29$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.34 | 451 | 51.2%231 W · 220 L | +16.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe824…65b4backed Over | 61c | 23.6$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 355 | 53%188 W · 167 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1736…0ca2backed Over | 60c | 21.21$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.48 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77b4…1bbbbacked Over | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -18%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00c9…8cd0backed Over | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7673…8af4backed Over | 61c | 19.61$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.65 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6667…9b2ebacked Over | 61c | 19.37$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.55 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3c…ba52backed Over | 60c | 19$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Lightning vs. Sabres: O/U 5.5this page
- Lightning vs. SabresSabres won
- Lightning vs. Sabres: O/U 4.5Over won
- Lightning vs. Sabres: O/U 6.5Over won
- Lightning vs. Sabres: O/U 7.5Over won
- Spread: Lightning (-1.5)Sabres won
- Spread: Sabres (-1.5)Lightning won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.