NHL · resolved market
Spread: Lightning (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1c92712327eeb05a8c85639ca616d82e024a1c5787d80c73006ccd03b472a75e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Sabresof Lightning, Sabres
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,055
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,055 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Lightning | 33c | 2,941$967 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$967.49 | 210 | 36.2%76 W · 134 L | -14.6wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xada5…db70backed Sabres | 70c | 2,034$1,428 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$606.87 | 434 | 56%243 W · 191 L | +16.2wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Lightning | 30c | 2,000$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 895 | 47%421 W · 474 L | -18.0wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Sabres | 67c | 1,792$1,201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$591.35 | 919 | 45.6%419 W · 500 L | -27.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec92…98f5backed Sabres | 69c | 1,650$1,139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$511.5 | 57 | 64.9%37 W · 20 L | +4.0wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7705…a442backed Lightning | 31c | 1,260$385 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$385.4 | 572 | 38.1%218 W · 354 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c58…e330backed Sabres | 34c | 1,021$351 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$670.64 | 422 | 54.3%229 W · 193 L | +18.3wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Lightning | 58c | 961.7$560 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$559.53 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Lightning | 39c | 300$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117 | 2,314 | 46.5%1,075 W · 1,239 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Sabres | 67c | 300$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99 | 916 | 53.9%494 W · 422 L | +39.6wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec56…dd09backed Sabres | 68c | 300$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96 | 270 | 49.6%134 W · 136 L | -7.1wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Lightning | 30c | 224.91$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.47 | 429 | 48.7%209 W · 220 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Sabres | 75c | 200$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 2,664 | 51.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac06…9594backed Lightning | 50c | 187.08$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.54 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Sabres | 50c | 180.68$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.46 | 3,704 | 50.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L | +105.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Sabres | 67c | 147.01$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.51 | 583 | 52.1%304 W · 279 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc23…8283backed Sabres | 70c | 142.86$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.86 | 252 | 58.3%147 W · 105 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84c7…bea7backed Lightning | 43c | 116.27$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x011b…fcc3backed Sabres | 70c | 100$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 177 | 59.9%106 W · 71 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Sabres | 57c | 96.27$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.4 | 1,846 | 57.2%1,055 W · 791 L | +85.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc226…497dbacked Sabres | 60c | 66.67$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.67 | 41 | 65.9%27 W · 14 L | +4.7wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +18%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed Lightning | 31c | 59$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.29 | 868 | 52.4%455 W · 413 L | +7.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Lightning | 65c | 53$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.45 | 657 | 21.9%144 W · 513 L | -105.6wins | -0.16per pick | 38cpaid | -54.6%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x0e01…7ef0backed Lightning | 33c | 47.85$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.79 | 76 | 35.5%27 W · 49 L | -12.1wins | -0.16per pick | 51cpaid | -33%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x1b44…d8debacked Lightning | 34c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 295 | 53.6%158 W · 137 L | +13.9wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8441…7925backed Lightning | 67c | 24$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.08 | 149 | 44.3%66 W · 83 L | -7.3wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf30a…61fbbacked Lightning | 67c | 24$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.08 | 384 | 47.4%182 W · 202 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec66…e58fbacked Sabres | 70c | 22.86$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.86 | 336 | 60.7%204 W · 132 L | +9.4wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4861…4fcabacked Sabres | 70c | 17$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.19 | 227 | 59.5%135 W · 92 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Lightning (-1.5)this page
- Lightning vs. SabresSabres won
- Lightning vs. Sabres: O/U 4.5Over won
- Lightning vs. Sabres: O/U 5.5Over won
- Lightning vs. Sabres: O/U 6.5Over won
- Lightning vs. Sabres: O/U 7.5Over won
- Spread: Sabres (-1.5)Lightning won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.