TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NHL · resolved market

Lightning vs. Sabres: O/U 6.5

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Overof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$921,094

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $921,094 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 194 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NHL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x4924…3782backed Over52c462,776$240,394 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$222,381.5120354.2%110 W · 93 L+7.2wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x03e8…1697backed Over53c219,365$116,070 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103,295.0867051%342 W · 328 L+9.3wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+3.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe20a…e469backed Under48c200,000$96,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96,00039047.9%187 W · 203 L-13.2wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-6.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc350…3669backed Under47c130,175$61,182 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61,182.0930944.7%138 W · 171 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-8.5%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x2a2c…9bc1backed Under48c75,872$36,419 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36,418.7740351.9%209 W · 194 L+6.9wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-2.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under48c72,259$34,681 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34,681.441,19050.7%603 W · 587 L+13.3wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x93ab…9723backed Over51c60,021$30,611 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29,409.975050%25 W · 25 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+5.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7e3a…3246backed Under49c57,256$27,976 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27,976.274148.8%20 W · 21 L+2.2wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+7.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb45a…192cbacked Under48c50,000$24,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23,999.9622443.8%98 W · 126 L-5.3wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-6.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdc87…7ab6backed Under49c39,211$19,211 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19,211.3256152%292 W · 269 L+7.1wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf28e…cab2backed Under47c35,000$16,450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16,45010650%53 W · 53 L+2.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0ca2…5818backed Under51c28,500$14,535 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,53510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1831…ae73backed Over49c28,500$13,965 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,5351100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+104.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Under48c26,000$12,435 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,434.951,44149.2%709 W · 732 L+6.5wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0940…3640backed Under47c12,603$5,916 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,9165949.2%29 W · 30 L-2.5wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-10.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf5e1…5ad0backed Under49c10,000$4,870 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,87033151.7%171 W · 160 L+9.0wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+7.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Under49c8,241$4,002 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,002.12,89451.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L+58.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc49f…9e05backed Over52c8,000$4,160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,839.9626058.8%153 W · 107 L+17.7wins+0.07per pick52cpaid+15%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6bb3…758ebacked Under47c6,600$3,102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,10217247.7%82 W · 90 L-6.4wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-8.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xdcfe…44b5backed Under48c5,555$2,666 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,666.47949.4%39 W · 40 L-4.0wins-0.05per pick54cpaid-13%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf1ef…8cd6backed Under48c4,149$1,990 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,990.238845.5%40 W · 48 L-6.3wins-0.07per pick53cpaid-15.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x2586…c893backed Over50c4,000$2,010 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,99083652.8%441 W · 395 L+28.9wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+7.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb6ae…4df8backed Over52c3,500$1,813 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,68736748%176 W · 191 L-12.6wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-6.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Under49c3,373$1,654 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,654.482,66451.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L+58.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9870…b9d3backed Under49c3,061$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,50031550.8%160 W · 155 L-11.6wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-7.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xad84…1f2bbacked Under49c2,781$1,363 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,362.691030%3 W · 7 L-2.3wins-0.23per pick53cpaid-45.5%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xada5…db70backed Over52c2,359$1,226 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,132.5143456%243 W · 191 L+16.2wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+6.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8738…222bbacked Under60c2,300$1,380 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,379.726949.3%34 W · 35 L-2.7wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-7.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xebc0…fa41backed Over40c2,187$875 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,311.9417057.6%98 W · 72 L+15.0wins+0.09per pick49cpaid+25.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x733d…1ae7backed Under47c2,185$1,024 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,024.2221048.1%101 W · 109 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+5.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x445e…9be0backed Under48c1,881$912 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$911.5633652.1%175 W · 161 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-0.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4a86…d3e0backed Under48c1,589$767 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$767.0991653.9%494 W · 422 L+39.6wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+8.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x69ff…0d1dbacked Over51c1,500$765 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73527150.2%136 W · 135 L-8.0wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-4.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x21f3…35e3backed Under48c1,331$642 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$642.2859450.8%302 W · 292 L+2.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x71f9…16fbbacked Over51c1,300$663 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6372254.5%12 W · 10 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+10.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Under50c1,277$642 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$642.463,70450.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L+105.5wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x161a…4103backed Over44c1,213$531 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$681.281,20260.1%722 W · 480 L+51.9wins+0.04per pick56cpaid+15%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Under48c1,166$554 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$554.291,09250.4%550 W · 542 L+12.7wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6814…d83abacked Under48c1,050$504 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5043345.5%15 W · 18 L-0.9wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x598b…f296backed Under47c1,000$470 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4703357.6%19 W · 14 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick58cpaid-5.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6337…62c5backed Under48c1,000$480 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4801952.6%10 W · 9 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x597e…cd70backed Under56c999.99$560 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5603661.1%22 W · 14 L+2.5wins+0.07per pick54cpaid+17%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2c1a…42d8backed Over54c973.04$521 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$451.6211833.1%39 W · 79 L-9.9wins-0.08per pick41cpaid-22.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x691a…d113backed Under48c937$450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$449.7626551.3%136 W · 129 L+2.9wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5487…a014backed Under48c810$389 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$388.884953.8%457 W · 392 L+20.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked Under48c729$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$349.9283149.5%411 W · 420 L-9.2wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2714…960fbacked Under48c600$288 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28832648.2%157 W · 169 L-8.8wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-6.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3f5e…94e9backed Under48c599.96$290 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$289.9811250%56 W · 56 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x520e…d75abacked Under51c592.5$302 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$302.18450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid+4.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9c76…c926backed Under49c575.34$281 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$281.1658352.1%304 W · 279 L+1.9wins0.00per pick52cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x76a8…73c8backed Under50c536$268 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26810%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd6ce…7ec8backed Under49c499.99$245 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24562346.9%292 W · 331 L-3.1wins0.00per pick47cpaid-2.2%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x8c58…e330backed Over50c422.81$211 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$212.2942254.3%229 W · 193 L+18.3wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+5.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf02f…1ed8backed Under47c421.1$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20042948.7%209 W · 220 L+3.2wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Under48c406$194 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$194.142,31446.5%1,075 W · 1,239 L-7.5wins0.00per pick47cpaid-5.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1b85…f739backed Under48c402.08$193 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$193450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xec56…dd09backed Under48c400$192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19227049.6%134 W · 136 L-7.1wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-6.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe01d…a45cbacked Under49c362.24$177 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$177.45520%1 W · 4 L-1.6wins-0.33per pick53cpaid-64.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf1ad…6979backed Under49c326.79$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$160.1329448.6%143 W · 151 L-8.2wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-4.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2e72…e08fbacked Under51c313$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159.6310%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x43e8…af56backed Under48c312.7$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1505650%28 W · 28 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-6.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5b20…99e9backed Under49c306.48$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1501,09351.8%566 W · 527 L+14.2wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7426…6860backed Over49c304$149 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$155.041100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+104.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9d55…7bc7backed Under49c299.98$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$145.9922352.9%118 W · 105 L+6.0wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xade7…d6efbacked Under51c299$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152.4920%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7f01…aababacked Under51c287$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$146.37250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-16.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc52d…8abfbacked Over49c287$141 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$146.37250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.23per pick27cpaid+2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfaf2…54efbacked Over49c284$139 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$144.841100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+104.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf157…9468backed Under51c273$139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$139.2310%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf1e3…c704backed Under51c272$139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138.7210%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3dcf…4eb4backed Under49c270.46$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132.5316756.3%94 W · 73 L+9.4wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+12.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4fd1…9aaebacked Over49c261$128 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$133.111100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+104.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x91a5…b9f8backed Over49c248$122 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$126.48250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2a67…ef6bbacked Over52c240.01$125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$115.4614853.4%79 W · 69 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6850…9aa9backed Over49c238$117 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$121.38366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.29per pick38cpaid+23.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x26fb…67b8backed Under57c234$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133.3212859.4%76 W · 52 L+3.3wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3100…9bc9backed Under48c226.99$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.9611855.9%66 W · 52 L+7.4wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+13%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa578…6702backed Under50c219$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.553849.4%266 W · 272 L+10.5wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc308…c3b9backed Over51c211.03$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.782751.9%14 W · 13 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+5.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc51a…a0d9backed Over51c208$106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.922646.2%12 W · 14 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-3.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc1b5…c8f8backed Under49c204.08$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10028753.3%153 W · 134 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-0.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdae4…f1fcbacked Over53c201.58$107 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.972347.8%11 W · 12 L-0.1wins0.00per pick48cpaid-2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5960…d692backed Under49c200$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9745756.2%257 W · 200 L+19.5wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+10.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa8f3…e544backed Over51c199.98$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.9962447.3%295 W · 329 L+0.9wins0.00per pick47cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeee5…8559backed Over49c196$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99.962100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.49per pick52cpaid+94.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9ff5…f136backed Under52c192.85$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1008852.3%46 W · 42 L-3.5wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-6.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x718d…2b46backed Over52c191.35$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.3539751.1%203 W · 194 L-7.4wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xea58…b3eabacked Under51c178$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.7810%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x45ca…9dd0backed Over49c172$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.72560%3 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.14per pick46cpaid+8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xee07…3573backed Under59c165.11$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$985653.6%30 W · 26 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x54ee…0d73backed Under49c163.47$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.09450%2 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-3.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5ded…a789backed Over49c162$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.621100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+104.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7ceb…b516backed Under50c160$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$808950.6%45 W · 44 L-2.5wins-0.03per pick53cpaid+6.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1b9e…eb82backed Under49c157.14$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7711952.9%63 W · 56 L+4.1wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+6.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa11d…72a8backed Over66c151.52$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.527663.2%48 W · 28 L+9.6wins+0.13per pick51cpaid+26.7%equal weight61+0.09 edge/pick
0x2fd5…ef85backed Under54c148.14$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8013647.1%64 W · 72 L-3.0wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x30e2…4166backed Under50c146$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.16per pick51cpaid+29.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x412a…802cbacked Under48c145.55$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.865036%18 W · 32 L-5.0wins-0.10per pick46cpaid-20.5%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x8dce…b2acbacked Under58c140.8$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.91825%2 W · 6 L-1.5wins-0.19per pick44cpaid-43.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe006…6e9ebacked Over53c123.78$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.884163.4%26 W · 15 L+5.1wins+0.12per pick51cpaid+28%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.