Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 30°C on June 20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0e468fa911cc5d8288396f38a9937c7870f50c57d84eac2e60b885d6bce3c4ee
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,636
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,626
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,636 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 10c | 534.59$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$483.25 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7db…959bbacked Yes | 21c | 423.5$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$333.93 | 1,018 | 25.5%260 W · 758 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a9b…0cc4backed Yes | 14c | 350.23$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300.23 | 76 | 34.2%26 W · 50 L | -3.5wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 15c | 328.58$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$278 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf913…9e87backed No | 68c | 275.15$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.98 | 90 | 66.7%60 W · 30 L | +4.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1da4…e65cbacked No | 62c | 232.55$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.2 | 130 | 50.8%66 W · 64 L | +6.3wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 56c | 209.55$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.62 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 54c | 186.74$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.84 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd879…2f44backed Yes | 26c | 178.99$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.24 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 17c | 162.84$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.42 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 9c | 160.93$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.83 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 36c | 159.07$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.01 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf419…5f89backed Yes | 8c | 150$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138 | 949 | 19.7%187 W · 762 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 72c | 148.98$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.76 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x3478…d770backed Yes | 61c | 119.93$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.93 | 49 | 40.8%20 W · 29 L | -3.1wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 20c | 114.53$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.96 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd24b…187dbacked Yes | 41c | 108.69$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.64 | 613 | 65.3%400 W · 213 L | +43.8wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 79c | 88$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.14 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 59c | 87.65$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.32 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x3b42…14f4backed Yes | 14c | 86.41$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.35 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.13per pick | 27cpaid | +70.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…6b2bbacked No | 76c | 81.81$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.96 | 54 | 55.6%30 W · 24 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0cbd…3ab8backed Yes | 14c | 78.57$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.57 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf745…bf49backed Yes | 24c | 73.84$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.88 | 62 | 37.1%23 W · 39 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 53c | 69.63$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.65 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c6…2b25backed No | 73c | 68.78$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 329 | 58.7%193 W · 136 L | +17.9wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff6…e4fbbacked Yes | 38c | 64.92$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.52 | 653 | 53.4%349 W · 304 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95e5…c974backed No | 32c | 63.29$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 25 | 64%16 W · 9 L | +3.3wins | +0.13per pick | 51cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8882…03fbbacked Yes | 22c | 62.14$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.64 | 517 | 33.3%172 W · 345 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85db…1423backed No | 71c | 61.42$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.39 | 66 | 66.7%44 W · 22 L | +4.4wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbd2b…74acbacked Yes | 24c | 57.38$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.38 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 78c | 56.5$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.94 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb38e…272bbacked Yes | 28c | 52.72$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.72 | 102 | 19.6%20 W · 82 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 28c | 52$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.72 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 68c | 50.82$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.56 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked Yes | 22c | 50.51$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.5 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 77c | 50$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.5 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xed54…4967backed No | 75c | 50$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 498 | 54.6%272 W · 226 L | +46.4wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbdab…088abacked No | 76c | 50$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.27per pick | 61cpaid | -54%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…33c9backed No | 79c | 50$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.27 | 896 | 61.7%553 W · 343 L | +15.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed Yes | 21c | 49.99$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.49 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a85…651fbacked No | 41c | 48.11$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3bf9…1ffabacked Yes | 22c | 46.19$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.04 | 101 | 21.8%22 W · 79 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8817…cda8backed Yes | 79c | 45$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.24 | 248 | 41.1%102 W · 146 L | -13.5wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 77c | 43.38$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.36 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed No | 74c | 40$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.6 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed Yes | 72c | 34$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.55 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 77c | 28.17$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.69 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x70c4…1008backed No | 76c | 27.62$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.99 | 333 | 50.2%167 W · 166 L | -11.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c3d…d3e9backed No | 79c | 25.32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 79 | 68.4%54 W · 25 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 79c | 24.58$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.54 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked No | 48c | 22.65$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.84 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15b7…4cdebacked No | 77c | 22.02$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.96 | 86 | 61.6%53 W · 33 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36ce…0e38backed No | 74c | 18.49$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.68 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 30°C on June 20?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 29°C on June 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 31°C on June 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 32°C on June 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 33°C on June 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 34°C or higher on June 20?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.