Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 32°C on June 20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x677cf31b60deb136198592ce6d4051fb93101e74bd361665d8aadfc3eac9f7c0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,049
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,431
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,049 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xec86…60e4backed Yes | 36c | 211.07$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.53 | 1,163 | 38.2%444 W · 719 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca1…17e5backed Yes | 6c | 200$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 153 | 28.1%43 W · 110 L | +10.0wins | +0.07per pick | 22cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 15c | 169.02$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.35 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 22c | 147.57$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.74 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 21c | 137.93$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.18 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 71c | 129.09$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.71 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 60c | 120$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 18c | 114.21$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.66 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x79c9…b2f1backed Yes | 21c | 99.52$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.17 | 173 | 10.4%18 W · 155 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 79c | 96.93$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.3 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb427…4c62backed Yes | 33c | 94.68$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.93 | 223 | 50.7%113 W · 110 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 69c | 92.36$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.52 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 35c | 82.55$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.61 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed Yes | 26c | 75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbea5…2cf0backed No | 79c | 72.52$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.23 | 253 | 58.9%149 W · 104 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 63c | 69.65$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.47 | 805 | 60.6%488 W · 317 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 23c | 66.17$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.22 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 71c | 65.65$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.21 | 1,088 | 55.5%604 W · 484 L | -27.6wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 68c | 64.76$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.7 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 40c | 60$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…c19ebacked Yes | 32c | 59.81$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 612 | 49.5%303 W · 309 L | +30.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2868…9b6bbacked No | 73c | 55$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.85 | 165 | 43.6%72 W · 93 L | +9.5wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdb46…56e7backed Yes | 41c | 53.39$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.7 | 421 | 48%202 W · 219 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe457…5ab3backed No | 62c | 48.63$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.68 | 438 | 48.6%213 W · 225 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…6b2bbacked Yes | 27c | 45.88$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.39 | 54 | 55.6%30 W · 24 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf913…9e87backed No | 74c | 45.18$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.71 | 90 | 66.7%60 W · 30 L | +4.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9387…d659backed Yes | 39c | 43.21$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.77 | 271 | 30.6%83 W · 188 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 66c | 37.56$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.77 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 74c | 37$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.61 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff89…dbffbacked Yes | 41c | 37$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.17 | 45 | 37.8%17 W · 28 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9996…3405backed Yes | 42c | 35.36$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 65c | 33$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.6 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 80c | 31.41$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.32 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f4a…f61bbacked No | 61c | 31.21$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.27 | 545 | 47.7%260 W · 285 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51dd…4053backed No | 64c | 27.78$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 403 | 52.4%211 W · 192 L | -12.7wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3a…3df7backed No | 62c | 27.77$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.55 | 452 | 53.3%241 W · 211 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 65c | 26.95$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a6c…f348backed Yes | 40c | 25.43$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 64c | 21.46$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.76 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed No | 61c | 21$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.19 | 583 | 58%338 W · 245 L | -2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.3 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 73c | 16.8$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.59 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b1…79d7backed No | 62c | 16.65$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.33 | 889 | 73.2%651 W · 238 L | +20.3wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8144…8472backed No | 62c | 16.36$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.22 | 239 | 58.2%139 W · 100 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 62c | 16.22$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.11 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x98af…dd79backed No | 65c | 15.39$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.39 | 54 | 57.4%31 W · 23 L | -2.9wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 77c | 14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.22 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 32°C on June 20?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 29°C on June 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 30°C on June 20?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 31°C on June 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 33°C on June 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 34°C or higher on June 20?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.