Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 31°C on June 20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5b3c37a593230187c6ac66ca3d037c08b22bfdebcd4667259cded6391bb92d01
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,974
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,973
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,974 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 72 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 4c | 285$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3478…d770backed Yes | 74c | 270.2$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.09 | 49 | 40.8%20 W · 29 L | -3.1wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 56c | 249.55$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.38 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc13…5eb6backed No | 70c | 212.9$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.47 | 517 | 62.3%322 W · 195 L | -15.5wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca1…17e5backed Yes | 29c | 203.23$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.27 | 153 | 28.1%43 W · 110 L | +10.0wins | +0.07per pick | 22cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 53c | 186.33$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.53 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 38c | 182.69$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.09 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 42c | 160.33$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.03 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5647…de1dbacked Yes | 43c | 151.9$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 479 | 35.3%169 W · 310 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c3…20e0backed No | 55c | 148$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.96 | 637 | 57.6%367 W · 270 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb17…ee85backed Yes | 23c | 131.96$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.75 | 77 | 39%30 W · 47 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | 0%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 72c | 131$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.08 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 62c | 129$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.7 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2837…fd84backed No | 75c | 126$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.99 | 41 | 61%25 W · 16 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 67cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 27c | 124.44$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.04 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x3bf9…1ffabacked Yes | 46c | 110.38$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.21 | 101 | 21.8%22 W · 79 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d9a…dbe1backed Yes | 38c | 102.55$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.6 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 54c | 95.72$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.1 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 57c | 88$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.82 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 47c | 84.88$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.59 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 41c | 75$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.45 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed Yes | 45c | 75$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.75 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf745…bf49backed Yes | 47c | 73.5$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.78 | 62 | 37.1%23 W · 39 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed No | 54c | 71.36$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.92 | 869 | 52.7%458 W · 411 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 59c | 69.65$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.72 | 805 | 60.6%488 W · 317 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1a5…132bbacked Yes | 45c | 66.73$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 107 | 46.7%50 W · 57 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked Yes | 45c | 65.69$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.47 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f4a…f61bbacked Yes | 39c | 64.76$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.14 | 545 | 47.7%260 W · 285 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x10e0…92e4backed Yes | 36c | 61.09$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.99 | 277 | 44%122 W · 155 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 56c | 60.09$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.24 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 57c | 57.84$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.86 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 55c | 57.78$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2299…493bbacked Yes | 44c | 53.08$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.36 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 75c | 52$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.82 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…eb02backed Yes | 46c | 50.73$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.21 | 348 | 46.6%162 W · 186 L | +14.6wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 23c | 50$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.5 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed Yes | 45c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.51 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 47c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…6b2bbacked No | 53c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.5 | 54 | 55.6%30 W · 24 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x759d…cc80backed No | 51c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 778 | 51.9%404 W · 374 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c6…2b25backed Yes | 43c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.25 | 329 | 58.7%193 W · 136 L | +17.9wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x50b1…0793backed No | 55c | 49.99$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 436 | 63.5%277 W · 159 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe457…5ab3backed No | 60c | 49.96$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.02 | 438 | 48.6%213 W · 225 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 79c | 44.98$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 29c | 44.58$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.01 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3a…3df7backed No | 56c | 43.14$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.95 | 452 | 53.3%241 W · 211 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9387…d659backed Yes | 39c | 43$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.77 | 271 | 30.6%83 W · 188 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9764…a691backed No | 53c | 42.55$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked No | 48c | 41.57$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.53 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 52c | 41.45$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.74 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc5…e8f2backed Yes | 51c | 40.57$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.6 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0838…64f6backed Yes | 38c | 39.69$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 210 | 52.4%110 W · 100 L | +14.7wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 63c | 39.59$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.63 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 42c | 37.97$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 57c | 36.5$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.52 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0cbd…3ab8backed Yes | 42c | 35.71$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 59c | 34.65$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.3 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…c19ebacked Yes | 45c | 33.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 612 | 49.5%303 W · 309 L | +30.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 60c | 32.13$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.96 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38a7…d69dbacked Yes | 58c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.35 | 235 | 49.4%116 W · 119 L | -12.8wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 62c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.4 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1da4…e65cbacked Yes | 56c | 28$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 130 | 50.8%66 W · 64 L | +6.3wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 60c | 26.95$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.72 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 62c | 25.69$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.76 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 49c | 24.79$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.56 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4cef…d85bbacked Yes | 61c | 23.82$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.53 | 50 | 44%22 W · 28 L | -3.1wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xebab…8793backed Yes | 65c | 23.2$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb46…56e7backed No | 55c | 21.64$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.65 | 421 | 48%202 W · 219 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 62c | 21.46$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.05 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6c1…a400backed No | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 61 | 63.9%39 W · 22 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7da5…0865backed Yes | 59c | 17.53$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.29 | 48 | 58.3%28 W · 20 L | -3.3wins | -0.07per pick | 65cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5353…293cbacked No | 62c | 16.26$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.18 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 58cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 31°C on June 20?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 29°C on June 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 30°C on June 20?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 32°C on June 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 33°C on June 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 34°C or higher on June 20?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.