Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 88-89°F on June 21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0e4d3da7774716391c383d0b97a6f8b820782af53c475f0cbae80c854e06bc0e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,042
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,653
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,042 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 44c | 437.09$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.44 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 53c | 287.69$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.7 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 17c | 213.7$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.98 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 53c | 199.64$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.16 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 21c | 178.02$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.9 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed Yes | 54c | 162$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.27 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 45c | 145.65$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.33 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 38c | 145.54$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.96 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 18c | 138$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.92 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 58c | 123$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.83 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 38c | 113$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.34 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 35c | 90.67$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.6 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 35c | 90$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.1 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ed…156fbacked No | 58c | 85$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.3 | 123 | 51.2%63 W · 60 L | -9.5wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf6be…f6a3backed Yes | 40c | 80.78$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.47 | 299 | 41.1%123 W · 176 L | +20.8wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x06ae…0a09backed Yes | 77c | 74.05$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.21 | 14 | 85.7%12 W · 2 L | +2.6wins | +0.19per pick | 67cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9d8a…94cbbacked No | 64c | 67.83$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.21 | 89 | 49.4%44 W · 45 L | -5.5wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 64c | 67.4$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.94 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked Yes | 40c | 63$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.03 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d1f…8c58backed No | 43c | 60.52$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.74 | 180 | 38.9%70 W · 110 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3afc…d167backed No | 65c | 60.25$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2cb8…7c99backed Yes | 74c | 58.18$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.22 | 29 | 72.4%21 W · 8 L | +3.1wins | +0.11per pick | 62cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8ed5…7c3abacked Yes | 36c | 55.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.78 | 200 | 37%74 W · 126 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd102…42c8backed Yes | 37c | 52.31$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.03 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.12per pick | 32cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 41c | 52.06$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.85 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8c81…25cabacked Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 122 | 33.6%41 W · 81 L | -10.0wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 57c | 48.5$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.65 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed Yes | 44c | 47$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.12 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b23…3ca8backed No | 58c | 44.86$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.24 | 235 | 38.3%90 W · 145 L | -11.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -18%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x784a…06c3backed Yes | 77c | 42.99$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.72 | 340 | 50.6%172 W · 168 L | -10.0wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce07…5c3cbacked Yes | 40c | 40.88$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.69 | 310 | 62.6%194 W · 116 L | +38.4wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked No | 62c | 40$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.76 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9db6…e1f8backed No | 61c | 39.67$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.2 | 111 | 57.7%64 W · 47 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xebf0…2330backed Yes | 42c | 37.72$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.73 | 410 | 51.7%212 W · 198 L | +24.9wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked No | 47c | 37.1$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 58c | 34$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.72 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc41d…c51dbacked Yes | 56c | 33.23$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.62 | 161 | 44.1%71 W · 90 L | +14.3wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed Yes | 50c | 33.06$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.55 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe93…8d0ebacked No | 33c | 33$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.99 | 270 | 50.4%136 W · 134 L | -13.3wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 65c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.44 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf46e…7ad0backed Yes | 65c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.45 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x997a…4cbebacked No | 63c | 29.87$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.92 | 195 | 65.6%128 W · 67 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x213e…5e0fbacked Yes | 57c | 28.92$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.34 | 657 | 49.8%327 W · 330 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6659…b7cabacked No | 60c | 28.7$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.22 | 938 | 37.6%353 W · 585 L | -14.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2921…1706backed Yes | 39c | 27.67$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.78 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 37c | 27.42$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.38 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 42c | 26.2$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.01 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 66c | 23.97$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.91 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 64c | 21.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.99 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 61c | 19$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.63 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd90…4bfcbacked Yes | 79c | 19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.94 | 577 | 47%271 W · 306 L | +40.0wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 88-89°F on June 21?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 84-85°F on June 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 86-87°F on June 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 90-91°F on June 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 92-93°F on June 21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.