Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 90-91°F on June 21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3738566818ea4afd619f7e8bb9aa5ae5df5435d9e6c01ddba37b9360eab21a8c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,321
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,086
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,321 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf9ee…3026backed Yes | 0c | 6,863$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.51 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 29c | 345.24$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.46 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 77c | 290.54$223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.19 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc41d…c51dbacked Yes | 16c | 289.83$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.74 | 161 | 44.1%71 W · 90 L | +14.3wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf6be…f6a3backed Yes | 20c | 249.99$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.3 | 299 | 41.1%123 W · 176 L | +20.8wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 73c | 174.64$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.99 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 39c | 173.28$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.85 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c7a…7be5backed Yes | 9c | 157.75$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.06 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 10c | 143.76$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.34 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 18c | 133.04$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.31 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 31c | 131.52$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.33 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 23c | 121.74$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 1,122 | 24.4%274 W · 848 L | +24.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc1…a3bbbacked No | 66c | 108.46$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.34 | 876 | 29.2%256 W · 620 L | -53.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed No | 80c | 99$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.8 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 73c | 92$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.03 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 34c | 91.29$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.16 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked Yes | 27c | 88.6$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.95 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed Yes | 20c | 84.98$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.34 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 65c | 75.28$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.16 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f4a…f61bbacked No | 66c | 74.62$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.37 | 545 | 47.7%260 W · 285 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 26c | 68.29$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.84 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 28c | 67.72$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.74 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd102…42c8backed Yes | 31c | 61.69$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.24 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.12per pick | 32cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51dd…4053backed Yes | 27c | 60.86$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.43 | 403 | 52.4%211 W · 192 L | -12.7wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 26c | 58.27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.9 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x55f8…2e76backed Yes | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 57cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 34c | 45.93$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe01…b8aebacked No | 59c | 42.37$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.37 | 264 | 58.7%155 W · 109 L | -20.5wins | -0.08per pick | 66cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 26c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 73c | 38$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.36 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe457…5ab3backed No | 64c | 37.83$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.81 | 438 | 48.6%213 W · 225 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed Yes | 33c | 37.24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.28 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x09a7…5b77backed Yes | 41c | 36.18$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbea5…2cf0backed No | 73c | 34.35$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.19 | 253 | 58.9%149 W · 104 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 58c | 34$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.28 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…6597backed No | 59c | 33$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.53 | 995 | 71.1%707 W · 288 L | +22.0wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0947…9e92backed No | 64c | 33$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.88 | 581 | 52%302 W · 279 L | +8.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11a4…f434backed No | 59c | 33$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.53 | 475 | 69.5%330 W · 145 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed Yes | 41c | 29.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7eb5…9400backed No | 61c | 28.33$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.05 | 527 | 58.8%310 W · 217 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4e…5ac9backed No | 73c | 27.39$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 214 | 72%154 W · 60 L | +7.9wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | +6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe35…57c3backed Yes | 46c | 26.33$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.21 | 104 | 30.8%32 W · 72 L | -16.9wins | -0.16per pick | 47cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x4179…cceebacked No | 80c | 23.52$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.7 | 429 | 76.5%328 W · 101 L | +4.5wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 72c | 21.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.26 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8b6…3b38backed No | 74c | 20.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.27 | 471 | 75.6%356 W · 115 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 75cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed No | 75c | 20.08$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.97 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 71c | 20.01$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.7 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18dc…5e90backed No | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 98 | 46.9%46 W · 52 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 75c | 19.93$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.93 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 67c | 19$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.19 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked No | 71c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.35 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 71c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.3 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 79c | 14.54$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.07 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f12…59ddbacked No | 76c | 13.25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.18 | 940 | 66.4%624 W · 316 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 90-91°F on June 21?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 84-85°F on June 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 86-87°F on June 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 88-89°F on June 21?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 92-93°F on June 21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.