Bundesliga · resolved market
Will 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 win on 2026-02-07?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0e6ec420c35ce22b72702b5f092137506dbf8d641afd14f719b4df4b832c2e50
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,034
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,781
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,034 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Yes | 34c | 8,046$2,715 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,715.28 | 105 | 53.3%56 W · 49 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 70c | 3,713$2,585 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,128.38 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 68c | 3,230$2,184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,046.04 | 751 | 42.5%319 W · 432 L | -26.7wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x160b…4296backed No | 67c | 1,967$1,318 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$649.1 | 387 | 48.3%187 W · 200 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaca0…9b86backed Yes | 6c | 1,667$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 40cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5032…d300backed Yes | 34c | 1,000$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +2.7wins | +0.30per pick | 37cpaid | +66.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0438…9d98backed Yes | 33c | 900$297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$297 | 61 | 29.5%18 W · 43 L | -7.1wins | -0.12per pick | 41cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed No | 67c | 699$468 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230.67 | 300 | 54%162 W · 138 L | +10.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 66c | 400.46$266 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.31 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3dc1…e318backed Yes | 34c | 294.84$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.09 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x12c6…0691backed No | 67c | 282.73$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.3 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +2.9wins | +0.13per pick | 44cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd257…d215backed Yes | 7c | 208.8$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 85 | 17.6%15 W · 70 L | -3.8wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked No | 67c | 208$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.46 | 782 | 48.8%382 W · 400 L | -28.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x099f…c1e1backed Yes | 19c | 207.34$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 174 | 56.9%99 W · 75 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6aa…3746backed Yes | 34c | 200$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 58 | 36.2%21 W · 37 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f84…67efbacked Yes | 8c | 200$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 147 | 26.5%39 W · 108 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked No | 67c | 179.08$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.1 | 373 | 44.5%166 W · 207 L | -15.1wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed No | 66c | 173.14$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.87 | 358 | 56.4%202 W · 156 L | +19.9wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x69db…283abacked Yes | 36c | 166.82$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef65…f32fbacked No | 68c | 147.06$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.06 | 19 | 78.9%15 W · 4 L | +3.7wins | +0.20per pick | 59cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc0bc…b904backed Yes | 25c | 138.61$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Yes | 35c | 138$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.3 | 339 | 45.7%155 W · 184 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf699…07e1backed No | 77c | 135.43$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.15 | 104 | 63.5%66 W · 38 L | +9.8wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2961…cfcfbacked Yes | 34c | 114.71$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 68 | 45.6%31 W · 37 L | -3.4wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -11%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca61…f06abacked Yes | 34c | 110$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.4 | 74 | 39.2%29 W · 45 L | -3.4wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb5b9…948abacked Yes | 36c | 107.24$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.61 | 32 | 21.9%7 W · 25 L | -5.4wins | -0.17per pick | 39cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 39-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbf3b…0375backed No | 68c | 100$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4d5…13eebacked No | 68c | 100$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 40 | 75%30 W · 10 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 70cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xddc4…413dbacked Yes | 33c | 90.91$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.35per pick | 55cpaid | -64.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb552…94a8backed No | 67c | 73$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.09 | 101 | 54.5%55 W · 46 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8405…2163backed Yes | 33c | 69.7$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 181 | 40.3%73 W · 108 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6dec…be12backed Yes | 33c | 60.61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x071c…bab9backed Yes | 33c | 60.61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x78e0…207abacked Yes | 33c | 60.1$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.83 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeed9…6546backed Yes | 33c | 60.1$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.83 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f74…9745backed Yes | 33c | 59.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.79 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x657e…9fa5backed No | 68c | 58.82$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.82 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.20per pick | 63cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e7d…4a9bbacked Yes | 28c | 55$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 167 | 50.9%85 W · 82 L | +9.6wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5e8d…e22dbacked Yes | 35c | 52.59$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.17 | 51 | 45.1%23 W · 28 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7bd…616cbacked No | 67c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 39 | 59%23 W · 16 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9b…e74abacked Yes | 34c | 44.12$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 95 | 42.1%40 W · 55 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3b…6583backed No | 68c | 40$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.8 | 55 | 63.6%35 W · 20 L | +6.9wins | +0.13per pick | 51cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x70b1…73b2backed No | 66c | 37.7$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.82 | 44 | 45.5%20 W · 24 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ab0…f2d7backed Yes | 35c | 37.44$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.97 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d21…08d3backed Yes | 33c | 33.33$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33af…288abacked Yes | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 271 | 42.8%116 W · 155 L | +18.5wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4517…5f9ebacked No | 68c | 30.88$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.88 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4786…ff95backed No | 65c | 30.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.77 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +3.3wins | +0.22per pick | 52cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd5de…a312backed Yes | 35c | 30.71$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.75 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.29per pick | 46cpaid | -55%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…1c65backed No | 66c | 30.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.3 | 25 | 84%21 W · 4 L | +6.9wins | +0.27per pick | 57cpaid | +45.5%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xf0e0…f80dbacked Yes | 35c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93b5…42e7backed No | 67c | 29.69$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.86 | 56 | 64.3%36 W · 20 L | +6.6wins | +0.12per pick | 52cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xab30…379fbacked No | 67c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.25 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | -2.3wins | -0.08per pick | 66cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf142…57e7backed No | 66c | 23.53$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 230 | 46.5%107 W · 123 L | -6.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5dba…116abacked No | 68c | 22.71$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.27 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcee5…d8acbacked No | 68c | 21.87$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefe1…edcdbacked No | 68c | 21.7$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.94 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xddd7…1596backed No | 67c | 21.48$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.09 | 258 | 55.4%143 W · 115 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e76…47fabacked No | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.7 | 95 | 64.2%61 W · 34 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e19…ba6cbacked No | 68c | 19.97$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.39 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b8f…1090backed No | 68c | 19.58$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.27 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +71.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x47da…ce18backed No | 68c | 19.22$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.15 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3df…16d6backed No | 68c | 19$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.08 | 36 | 66.7%24 W · 12 L | +5.0wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf028…c587backed No | 68c | 18.7$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.98 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7a3…93d5backed No | 68c | 18.26$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.84 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x126f…af4dbacked No | 68c | 18.17$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.81 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +70.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 win on 2026-02-07?this page
- Will 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 vs. Hamburger SV end in a draw?No won
- Will Hamburger SV win on 2026-02-07?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.