TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Bundesliga · resolved market

Will Hamburger SV win on 2026-02-07?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$177,978
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$200,414

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $177,978 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 161 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xdc87…7ab6backed No61c73,770$45,120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45,119.9210553.3%56 W · 49 L+3.4wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+5.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdbca…b7b7backed Yes39c23,067$8,996 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,070.872040%8 W · 12 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-19.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Yes39c20,838$8,095 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,743.0369851.9%362 W · 336 L+22.3wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+9.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4133…5e70backed Yes41c18,068$7,378 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,690.3575142.5%319 W · 432 L-26.7wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-14.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf059…6dd9backed Yes39c16,152$6,299 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,852.984254.8%23 W · 19 L+2.5wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+13.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb6ae…4df8backed No61c14,584$8,903 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,902.574456.8%25 W · 19 L+3.9wins+0.09per pick48cpaid+15.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xead0…f3babacked Yes39c12,500$4,875 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,6251855.6%10 W · 8 L+1.5wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+27.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x351e…de8abacked Yes39c6,995$2,728 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,266.872846.4%13 W · 15 L-0.1wins0.00per pick47cpaid+4.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x617b…a499backed No62c5,500$3,385 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,3856058.3%35 W · 25 L+3.9wins+0.07per pick52cpaid+11%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Yes39c5,443$2,123 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,319.473,28442.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L-74.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-18.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf154…27e3backed Yes39c4,615$1,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,815.383100%3 W · 0 L+1.6wins+0.55per pick45cpaid+124.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked No61c4,000$2,440 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,44033244.6%148 W · 184 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked Yes38c3,265$1,245 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,020.471,68145.2%759 W · 922 L+6.8wins0.00per pick45cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x160b…4296backed Yes38c3,157$1,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,957.3438748.3%187 W · 200 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-3.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x97e0…8194backed Yes39c3,000$1,155 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,844.8311644.8%52 W · 64 L-2.5wins-0.02per pick47cpaid+5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfce1…9ce7backed No60c2,495$1,497 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,496.951942.1%8 W · 11 L-1.5wins-0.08per pick50cpaid-25.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4a86…d3e0backed No61c1,968$1,204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,203.6835856.4%202 W · 156 L+19.9wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+10.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x13fa…3facbacked Yes38c1,500$570 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93027726.4%73 W · 204 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-0.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7ca1…aea0backed Yes39c1,200$468 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7327639.5%30 W · 46 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick38cpaid-1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5487…a014backed Yes38c1,168$444 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$724.1630054%162 W · 138 L+10.2wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+2.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Yes39c1,165$454 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$710.6533945.7%155 W · 184 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfc04…f726backed Yes39c1,000$390 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6101266.7%8 W · 4 L+2.2wins+0.18per pick48cpaid+25.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x0d24…6564backed Yes38c900$341 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$558.531100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.62per pick38cpaid+163.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7b2c…af48backed Yes38c886.58$337 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$549.6856547.8%270 W · 295 L+6.8wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked No62c796.55$494 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$493.861,35550.9%690 W · 665 L+12.7wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x75cd…61a6backed No62c712.35$442 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$441.661136.4%4 W · 7 L-1.5wins-0.14per pick50cpaid-44.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1f62…76f6backed Yes39c700$273 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42763645.1%287 W · 349 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4a9b…f4edbacked Yes41c692.68$284 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$408.682755.6%15 W · 12 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x13a1…d9bcbacked Yes73c675$495 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$180.2116060.6%97 W · 63 L+9.1wins+0.06per pick55cpaid+3.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa62d…92e0backed Yes39c651.28$254 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$397.284920.4%10 W · 39 L-4.5wins-0.09per pick30cpaid-13.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked No27c607.95$162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$161.52,53839.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L-8.1wins0.00per pick40cpaid-11.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x10b0…8525backed No61c600$366 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36616850%84 W · 84 L-0.6wins0.00per pick50cpaid+3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x814c…7ffabacked No61c599.99$366 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$365.9919446.4%90 W · 104 L-3.1wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-14.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed No46c550.17$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250.391,01344.5%451 W · 562 L-8.2wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-20.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfec2…08afbacked Yes39c530.77$207 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$323.772250%11 W · 11 L+1.7wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+5.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3045…8f78backed Yes39c512.82$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$312.8217549.1%86 W · 89 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9e5c…d8e6backed Yes38c500$190 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31023745.6%108 W · 129 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-13%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd3b1…19bbbacked Yes40c500$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3002466.7%16 W · 8 L+3.6wins+0.15per pick52cpaid+35%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xce2b…08fabacked Yes72c486.11$350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$136.1138055.8%212 W · 168 L-0.9wins0.00per pick56cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x972b…78babacked Yes38c474$181 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$293.3156951.8%295 W · 274 L+10.0wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3dc1…e318backed No61c437.22$268 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$267.72147.6%10 W · 11 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5773…ac11backed Yes38c400$152 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24831145%140 W · 171 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick46cpaid+4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2160…bcb3backed Yes40c350$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2109937.4%37 W · 62 L-2.4wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-8.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2ab0…f2d7backed No62c313.5$194 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$194.371650%8 W · 8 L+1.1wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+17.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x05a0…379ebacked Yes36c300$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$192850%4 W · 4 L+1.6wins+0.20per pick30cpaid+74%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4300…5c69backed Yes40c300$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1806136.1%22 W · 39 L-5.4wins-0.09per pick45cpaid-18.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x9d55…7bc7backed No61c299.99$182 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$182.433560%21 W · 14 L+3.7wins+0.10per pick50cpaid+34.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa4c5…50cdbacked Yes39c260$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$158.64542.2%19 W · 26 L+1.8wins+0.04per pick38cpaid+10.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x49a5…b220backed Yes39c256.4$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$156.4850%4 W · 4 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x865f…e88ebacked Yes39c256$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$156.1634342%144 W · 199 L-0.4wins0.00per pick42cpaid-5.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc56b…fe0abacked No62c226.9$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$140.681450%7 W · 7 L+1.2wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+65.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4a8d…31eabacked Yes39c215.38$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$131.3834547.5%164 W · 181 L+0.8wins0.00per pick47cpaid-2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x49ed…a2fbbacked Yes39c210$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$128.14837.5%18 W · 30 L-1.6wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-20.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb227…127cbacked Yes39c200$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1221346.2%6 W · 7 L+1.1wins+0.09per pick38cpaid+3.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x39b3…53b9backed Yes39c200$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1222352.2%12 W · 11 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+11%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf68a…625dbacked No45c199.99$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.996639.4%26 W · 40 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick37cpaid-10%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb792…fa38backed No61c196.72$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120520%1 W · 4 L-1.9wins-0.38per pick58cpaid-51.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x0d21…08d3backed No62c173.38$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.33850%4 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+8.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8c3c…cf9cbacked Yes38c172.56$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106.56475%3 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.28per pick47cpaid+48.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4f1a…26c0backed No63c166.78$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.251758.8%10 W · 7 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick55cpaid+4.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x15d7…a861backed Yes37c162.16$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.163432.4%11 W · 23 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-7.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0439…3f80backed No62c159.66$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.99650%3 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+22.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdd84…9f62backed No62c145.76$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.3740%0 W · 4 L-1.5wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x099f…c1e1backed No43c142.49$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6117456.9%99 W · 75 L+6.4wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+7.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xda16…6da2backed No31c140.08$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.235244.2%23 W · 29 L-2.8wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-29.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3cb0…6c15backed Yes39c128.21$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.21333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-14.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1b2c…5e10backed Yes39c128.21$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.2111250.9%57 W · 55 L+6.1wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+7.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4d84…21b1backed No64c124.58$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.739951.5%51 W · 48 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-9.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7a49…d9f5backed No28c107.44$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.5940744.5%181 W · 226 L-5.1wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-20.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6193…592cbacked No62c102.63$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.5410%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.62per pick62cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6fe9…9c50backed Yes39c100$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$616645.5%30 W · 36 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-10.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbf3b…0375backed No62c100$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62650%3 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-20.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe704…7558backed Yes40c100$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6017855.6%99 W · 79 L+0.4wins0.00per pick55cpaid-2.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6479…5e64backed No62c100$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$623762.2%23 W · 14 L+2.7wins+0.07per pick55cpaid+20%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5422…6c3fbacked Yes39c100$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$613868.4%26 W · 12 L+8.0wins+0.21per pick47cpaid+50.8%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0xddd7…1596backed No61c98.45$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.8125855.4%143 W · 115 L+5.5wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa509…ae46backed Yes38c96.43$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.5139857.5%229 W · 169 L+20.0wins+0.05per pick53cpaid-2.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9aaf…8298backed No61c95$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.4921450%107 W · 107 L+0.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid-5.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7028…e0e9backed Yes74c94.59$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.59785.7%6 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.16per pick70cpaid+20.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x95c8…3469backed Yes38c92.84$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.846253.2%33 W · 29 L+3.0wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+10.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x71c1…e358backed Yes39c89.74$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.7418840.4%76 W · 112 L+7.9wins+0.04per pick36cpaid+10.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdc86…7e77backed No62c88.18$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.677050%35 W · 35 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd9e0…05f2backed Yes67c86.67$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.7211644%51 W · 65 L-3.6wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-27.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc525…daf0backed No61c85$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5230%0 W · 3 L-1.5wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x3d57…2b4ebacked No62c83$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.181850%9 W · 9 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-2.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9544…790dbacked Yes40c82.5$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.511540.9%47 W · 68 L-4.8wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-19.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc07d…bf5dbacked No62c80.65$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.62per pick62cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x033f…b8cabacked No62c80.65$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501275%9 W · 3 L+2.1wins+0.17per pick58cpaid+27.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xd56d…5c46backed No62c80$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.620%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8aab…8d40backed No61c78.29$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.97520%1 W · 4 L-1.6wins-0.31per pick51cpaid-56%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x137e…20d7backed No61c78.29$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.97520%1 W · 4 L-1.6wins-0.31per pick51cpaid-56%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xddc4…413dbacked No62c76.19$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.24520%1 W · 4 L-1.7wins-0.35per pick55cpaid-64.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x28b8…16fcbacked Yes39c74.78$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.282958.6%17 W · 12 L+1.5wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcb5b…f243backed No64c69.44$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.4424541.6%102 W · 143 L-5.0wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-14%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x661e…c63ebacked Yes36c69.44$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.44425%1 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.14per pick39cpaid-30.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa33c…1b33backed No62c69.09$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.673154.8%17 W · 14 L+1.7wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+6.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5e57…2bf6backed No62c68.39$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.4540%2 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.15per pick55cpaid-23%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5fc4…c0adbacked No62c67.72$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.8610%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.62per pick62cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8405…2163backed Yes40c67.5$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.518140.3%73 W · 108 L-0.4wins0.00per pick41cpaid+1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xecfc…cd05backed Yes39c67$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.8710361.2%63 W · 40 L+8.2wins+0.08per pick53cpaid+12.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.