Bundesliga · resolved market
Will 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 vs. Hamburger SV end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x848a6d76baecc2d058961d5ad02afd43fbd8c3edd5863473b6e24adea7d1a101
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,614
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,912
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,614 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed No | 71c | 2,239$1,590 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$649.09 | 698 | 51.9%362 W · 336 L | +22.3wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Yes | 28c | 2,083$580 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$580.29 | 751 | 42.5%319 W · 432 L | -26.7wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe18a…fd87backed Yes | 29c | 1,000$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290 | 240 | 50.4%121 W · 119 L | +18.5wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed No | 73c | 610.64$448 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.14 | 1,013 | 44.5%451 W · 562 L | -8.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49ed…a2fbbacked Yes | 28c | 510.75$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.01 | 48 | 37.5%18 W · 30 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0438…9d98backed Yes | 29c | 500$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145 | 61 | 29.5%18 W · 43 L | -7.1wins | -0.12per pick | 41cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xde53…e5bebacked No | 73c | 430$314 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.1 | 77 | 58.4%45 W · 32 L | -3.7wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Yes | 28c | 428.57$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 373 | 44.5%166 W · 207 L | -15.1wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a2…9874backed Yes | 29c | 413.79$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 63 | 44.4%28 W · 35 L | +9.8wins | +0.16per pick | 29cpaid | +50.6%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Yes | 28c | 402.88$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.79 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9dce…b663backed No | 72c | 385.51$278 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.94 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 73cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde5a…4db5backed Yes | 30c | 333.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 29c | 244.72$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.06 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd257…d215backed Yes | 23c | 204.17$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 85 | 17.6%15 W · 70 L | -3.8wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x11f0…890dbacked Yes | 28c | 150$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 90 | 62.2%56 W · 34 L | +6.4wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed No | 72c | 146.28$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.65 | 116 | 44%51 W · 65 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x051c…f25dbacked Yes | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | -2.7wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Yes | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 565 | 47.8%270 W · 295 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b2c…5e10backed Yes | 29c | 86.21$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 112 | 50.9%57 W · 55 L | +6.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc0bc…b904backed Yes | 24c | 84.02$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x004e…90f8backed Yes | 32c | 63.75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 30 | 23.3%7 W · 23 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xded9…1300backed Yes | 28c | 58.54$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.39 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 47cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d8a…4d5fbacked No | 72c | 55.56$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.56 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 73cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc08…267abacked Yes | 23c | 52.17$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5404…5e58backed Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 86 | 36%31 W · 55 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x639f…6b8dbacked Yes | 29c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 76 | 39.5%30 W · 46 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0547…fb35backed No | 72c | 49.98$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 50 | 76%38 W · 12 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfed7…e405backed Yes | 28c | 46$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.88 | 95 | 49.5%47 W · 48 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed No | 77c | 43.48$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 245 | 41.6%102 W · 143 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -14%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed No | 71c | 40.88$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.83 | 407 | 44.5%181 W · 226 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Yes | 27c | 39.96$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.79 | 569 | 51.8%295 W · 274 L | +10.0wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Yes | 28c | 36.78$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 332 | 44.6%148 W · 184 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9d9…2f4abacked No | 70c | 36$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 24 | 79.2%19 W · 5 L | +3.5wins | +0.14per pick | 65cpaid | +38.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x095b…6f34backed No | 74c | 31.35$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.22 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +52.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed No | 75c | 30.31$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.53 | 398 | 57.5%229 W · 169 L | +20.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…1c65backed No | 69c | 28.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.99 | 25 | 84%21 W · 4 L | +6.9wins | +0.27per pick | 57cpaid | +45.5%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed No | 73c | 28.65$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.74 | 381 | 51.4%196 W · 185 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x949d…374cbacked No | 72c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d3d…a46fbacked No | 73c | 21.44$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.79 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c0…7fc1backed No | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.9 | 119 | 55.5%66 W · 53 L | +6.8wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed No | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.13 | 395 | 58.7%232 W · 163 L | +27.4wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc48f…e8b1backed No | 73c | 19.04$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.14 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7835…4ad1backed No | 73c | 18.06$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.88 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9158…ba55backed No | 72c | 16.19$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.53 | 121 | 65.3%79 W · 42 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab41…c453backed No | 64c | 16$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 45 | 37.8%17 W · 28 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a85…4f81backed No | 68c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab90…5793backed No | 72c | 14$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.92 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.15per pick | 69cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 vs. Hamburger SV end in a draw?this page
- Will 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 win on 2026-02-07?No won
- Will Hamburger SV win on 2026-02-07?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.