NFL · resolved market
DAL vs. SEA: O/U 38.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0e75847f78b35b081ea0a566b8956962bea8ee875b80587017c5abb3ff2f0b4e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $28,070
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,049
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,070 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1813…521abacked Under | 53c | 13,402$7,099 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,302.78 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 47c | 8,160$3,835 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,835 | 47 | 44.7%21 W · 26 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3dfb…abafbacked Over | 49c | 5,488$2,689 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,688.88 | 95 | 54.7%52 W · 43 L | +5.7wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a6…0009backed Over | 40c | 3,692$1,477 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,476.67 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x698b…4426backed Under | 53c | 2,500$1,325 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,175 | 43 | 48.8%21 W · 22 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 53c | 1,017$535 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$482.12 | 91 | 45.1%41 W · 50 L | -4.6wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b15…fa73backed Over | 55c | 512.66$282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$281.96 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Under | 51c | 462$236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226.25 | 148 | 50%74 W · 74 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Under | 46c | 321$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.15 | 315 | 43.2%136 W · 179 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 53c | 278$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.48 | 225 | 50.7%114 W · 111 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5659…7a6bbacked Over | 47c | 275.87$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.03 | 56 | 46.4%26 W · 30 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Over | 47c | 180$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.6 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x09ee…90a4backed Over | 49c | 169$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.81 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.3wins | -0.33per pick | 48cpaid | -63.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x24ce…da46backed Over | 47c | 165.03$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.81 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -2.6wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f41…5ffcbacked Over | 47c | 123$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.81 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5811…0976backed Under | 53c | 111.81$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.55 | 45 | 42.2%19 W · 26 L | -4.1wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd17a…0373backed Under | 50c | 110$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc785…4ef2backed Under | 45c | 98$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.9 | 36 | 61.1%22 W · 14 L | +2.4wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1950…1bf4backed Under | 52c | 94.33$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.28 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Under | 52c | 85$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.13 | 121 | 51.2%62 W · 59 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Under | 45c | 73.44$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.39 | 119 | 58%69 W · 50 L | +7.8wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x92aa…0341backed Over | 46c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.36 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.2wins | -0.28per pick | 53cpaid | -50.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- DAL vs. SEA: O/U 38.5this page
- Cowboys vs. SeahawksCowboys won
- DAL vs. SEA: O/U 37.5Under won
- DAL vs. SEA: O/U 39.5Under won
- Spread: SEA (-2.5)DAL won
- Spread: SEA (-3.5)DAL won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.