NFL · resolved market
Spread: SEA (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1fb56ca91e701891b5f77b95df20548c8b4f60173ee9e6b7cb4de68cd96acd40
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- DALof SEA, DAL
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $62,643
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $87,984
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $62,643 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3dfb…abafbacked DAL | 53c | 25,400$13,388 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,012.28 | 95 | 54.7%52 W · 43 L | +5.7wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked SEA | 47c | 18,912$8,908 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,907.6 | 173 | 50.9%88 W · 85 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed DAL | 50c | 6,160$3,079 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,080.66 | 75 | 52%39 W · 36 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd619…c461backed SEA | 49c | 4,800$2,368 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,368 | 53 | 50.9%27 W · 26 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed SEA | 50c | 2,514$1,257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,256.79 | 373 | 50.9%190 W · 183 L | +12.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed DAL | 50c | 2,500$1,251 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,248.55 | 394 | 47.7%188 W · 206 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed SEA | 48c | 1,898$916 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$915.55 | 148 | 50%74 W · 74 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked SEA | 49c | 1,024$502 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$501.76 | 92 | 40.2%37 W · 55 L | -6.4wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe216…7448backed SEA | 47c | 923.34$434 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$433.97 | 200 | 39.5%79 W · 121 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae8d…6db9backed SEA | 50c | 852$426 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$426 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9767…1a16backed SEA | 52c | 490.38$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -3.4wins | -0.15per pick | 47cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed SEA | 49c | 441.74$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.49 | 225 | 50.7%114 W · 111 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd81e…e3d0backed SEA | 47c | 406.76$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.18 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed SEA | 50c | 300$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 91 | 45.1%41 W · 50 L | -4.6wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd703…55d0backed DAL | 48c | 293.13$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.73 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked SEA | 50c | 250$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 137 | 56.2%77 W · 60 L | +8.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +12%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7e59…7b8bbacked SEA | 49c | 221.88$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.51 | 62 | 38.7%24 W · 38 L | -5.8wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x50cc…a534backed SEA | 50c | 220$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -2.2wins | -0.12per pick | 57cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeca0…e8f8backed SEA | 52c | 200$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104 | 80 | 48.8%39 W · 41 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed SEA | 48c | 192.2$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.3 | 61 | 54.1%33 W · 28 L | +3.0wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc59…35f7backed SEA | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f41…260ebacked SEA | 49c | 100$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf908…0aafbacked SEA | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89c9…9534backed SEA | 51c | 100$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 223 | 49.8%111 W · 112 L | -6.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ad3…1af6backed SEA | 50c | 80$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bf…60f8backed SEA | 52c | 78$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.4 | 63 | 52.4%33 W · 30 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0e…4f01backed SEA | 47c | 60$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.2 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb42…176ebacked SEA | 50c | 60$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x840b…345fbacked DAL | 49c | 59.77$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.34 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked SEA | 51c | 55$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.05 | 181 | 51.9%94 W · 87 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed SEA | 53c | 52.98$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.08 | 113 | 58.4%66 W · 47 L | +10.4wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2ba9…2210backed SEA | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.22per pick | 47cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x88fb…db3abacked DAL | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.82 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +3.5wins | +0.32per pick | 50cpaid | +66.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x78fb…56bcbacked SEA | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x62cd…7b19backed SEA | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x31df…a49ebacked SEA | 51c | 38.87$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.15per pick | 58cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked SEA | 47c | 35$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.45 | 121 | 51.2%62 W · 59 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0789…f7adbacked SEA | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b25…7a69backed SEA | 50c | 22.56$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.28 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | +57%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2892…e9d7backed SEA | 48c | 22.5$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed SEA | 51c | 21.58$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.01 | 134 | 49.3%66 W · 68 L | +4.8wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd774…82cdbacked DAL | 49c | 20.94$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.68 | 133 | 39.8%53 W · 80 L | -10.9wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfda1…06a4backed SEA | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b66…582fbacked SEA | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7488…9cfbbacked SEA | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3123…b44dbacked SEA | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.3wins | -0.23per pick | 53cpaid | -46.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe91c…0cf9backed SEA | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f16…cae2backed SEA | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: SEA (-2.5)this page
- Cowboys vs. SeahawksCowboys won
- DAL vs. SEA: O/U 37.5Under won
- DAL vs. SEA: O/U 38.5Under won
- DAL vs. SEA: O/U 39.5Under won
- Spread: SEA (-3.5)DAL won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.