NFL · resolved market
DAL vs. SEA: O/U 37.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x03b59dd7a2c30e4cfebb1c24d839589f3becef2cedfa2dc9ead60f70d94574d9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $35,494
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $36,921
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $35,494 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3dfb…abafbacked Over | 53c | 12,477$6,556 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,555.71 | 95 | 54.7%52 W · 43 L | +5.7wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x68df…4815backed Under | 50c | 8,046$4,043 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,002.54 | 181 | 56.9%103 W · 78 L | +11.8wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Over | 53c | 3,610$1,913 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,912.87 | 173 | 50.9%88 W · 85 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Under | 47c | 3,236$1,521 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,715.19 | 148 | 50%74 W · 74 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Over | 50c | 2,383$1,192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,191.73 | 62 | 51.6%32 W · 30 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 47c | 1,763$833 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$930.67 | 47 | 44.7%21 W · 26 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x73e8…cd6fbacked Over | 50c | 1,763$881 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$881.39 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd619…c461backed Under | 48c | 1,600$768 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$832 | 53 | 50.9%27 W · 26 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6387…95dcbacked Under | 52c | 1,345$700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$645.73 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -2.7wins | -0.19per pick | 55cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7091…96f8backed Under | 47c | 1,021$480 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$541.28 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8532…738bbacked Over | 49c | 1,000$490 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$490 | 119 | 46.2%55 W · 64 L | -5.9wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b15…fa73backed Over | 40c | 1,000$405 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$404.67 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5ee0…d6a6backed Under | 60c | 1,000$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$400 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +13%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 47c | 995$468 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$527.35 | 91 | 45.1%41 W · 50 L | -4.6wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5811…0976backed Under | 47c | 951.2$447 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$504.14 | 45 | 42.2%19 W · 26 L | -4.1wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 60c | 860.58$518 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$342.16 | 225 | 50.7%114 W · 111 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 47c | 836$393 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$443.08 | 108 | 58.3%63 W · 45 L | +4.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Under | 47c | 698.49$331 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$367.22 | 92 | 40.2%37 W · 55 L | -6.4wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb797…e779backed Under | 52c | 484.99$252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$233.15 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.17per pick | 54cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Under | 59c | 420.01$248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.2 | 48 | 35.4%17 W · 31 L | -4.8wins | -0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5659…7a6bbacked Under | 47c | 276$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.28 | 56 | 46.4%26 W · 30 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Under | 50c | 272.79$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.7 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05c5…6a69backed Under | 47c | 247.62$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131 | 30 | 66.7%20 W · 10 L | +2.6wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7e59…7b8bbacked Under | 60c | 200$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81 | 62 | 38.7%24 W · 38 L | -5.8wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb781…9ba9backed Over | 53c | 200$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106 | 48 | 45.8%22 W · 26 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8afa…28f0backed Over | 29c | 161.72$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.2 | 64 | 53.1%34 W · 30 L | +4.2wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Under | 48c | 145.81$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.48 | 113 | 58.4%66 W · 47 L | +10.4wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bf…60f8backed Under | 48c | 130$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.6 | 63 | 52.4%33 W · 30 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd17a…0373backed Over | 52c | 120$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.4 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c33…0563backed Under | 47c | 100$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53 | 259 | 56.8%147 W · 112 L | +14.8wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed Under | 48c | 100$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.33 | 61 | 54.1%33 W · 28 L | +3.0wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Under | 71c | 100$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 232 | 44.4%103 W · 129 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Under | 67c | 67.67$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.52 | 119 | 58%69 W · 50 L | +7.8wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x910a…1aa7backed Under | 51c | 66$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.34 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Over | 49c | 56.61$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.74 | 75 | 52%39 W · 36 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3da8…be26backed Under | 47c | 53$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.09 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c1b…85c8backed Over | 32c | 40.11$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.03 | 69 | 55.1%38 W · 31 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f41…5ffcbacked Under | 48c | 38$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.76 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Under | 46c | 34.33$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.47 | 142 | 58.5%83 W · 59 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3c…35cfbacked Over | 48c | 32$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.36 | 70 | 57.1%40 W · 30 L | +6.1wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf7…c485backed Under | 52c | 30.77$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.77 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.12per pick | 54cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x47c9…2038backed Under | 45c | 24.89$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.6 | 83 | 49.4%41 W · 42 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x95f5…779fbacked Under | 48c | 24$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -2.6wins | -0.19per pick | 40cpaid | -58.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Over | 48c | 22.93$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.01 | 134 | 49.3%66 W · 68 L | +4.8wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56ac…d77ebacked Over | 52c | 22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.44 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.9wins | -0.38per pick | 58cpaid | -60%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x24ce…da46backed Over | 51c | 21.12$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.77 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -2.6wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x880b…4f34backed Over | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- DAL vs. SEA: O/U 37.5this page
- Cowboys vs. SeahawksCowboys won
- DAL vs. SEA: O/U 38.5Under won
- DAL vs. SEA: O/U 39.5Under won
- Spread: SEA (-2.5)DAL won
- Spread: SEA (-3.5)DAL won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.