MLB · resolved market
New York Yankees vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0e99b89ad9c674ddfccd541ae06e598f211d915f05a41b742a63801a2486a5f8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $45,699
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $45,502
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $45,699 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 82 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6a32…0086backed Over | 47c | 10,124$4,809 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,808.97 | 272 | 54.4%148 W · 124 L | +12.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Under | 52c | 5,984$3,137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,847.03 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 41c | 4,155$1,719 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,435.79 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 52c | 3,854$1,998 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,856.76 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae82…faf0backed Over | 49c | 3,200$1,568 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,568 | 246 | 51.6%127 W · 119 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4379…2e16backed Under | 51c | 3,000$1,530 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,469.99 | 779 | 51.1%398 W · 381 L | +6.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Over | 47c | 2,857$1,351 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,351.03 | 2,369 | 47.4%1,122 W · 1,247 L | -11.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…fe91backed Under | 39c | 2,852$1,125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,726.65 | 1,218 | 55.6%677 W · 541 L | +94.9wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7138…8c89backed Under | 53c | 2,236$1,182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,053.88 | 737 | 48.4%357 W · 380 L | -7.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 58c | 1,905$1,113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,112.82 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 61c | 1,880$1,144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,143.7 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fb…ee11backed Under | 52c | 1,693$880 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$812.42 | 655 | 49.3%323 W · 332 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Under | 51c | 980$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$480.2 | 1,521 | 48.6%739 W · 782 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x50c3…ace1backed Over | 47c | 800$376 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$376 | 866 | 53%459 W · 407 L | +16.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Over | 56c | 797.04$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450.01 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Under | 46c | 701.41$322 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$379.35 | 2,545 | 45.9%1,168 W · 1,377 L | -73.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0dad…4855backed Under | 52c | 699.99$364 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$335.99 | 210 | 52.9%111 W · 99 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 49c | 660.42$323 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$323.19 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x76e4…febcbacked Over | 48c | 628.71$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 90 | 45.6%41 W · 49 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45d1…83dabacked Over | 48c | 625$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 138 | 51.4%71 W · 67 L | +6.3wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x992b…5053backed Over | 47c | 470.18$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222 | 227 | 53.3%121 W · 106 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Under | 52c | 456.96$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.07 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Under | 52c | 398.86$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.45 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Over | 42c | 363.2$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.81 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca4…aa92backed Under | 54c | 315.72$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.72 | 100 | 57%57 W · 43 L | +6.2wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7511…582ebacked Under | 39c | 243.9$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.78 | 701 | 54.2%380 W · 321 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Over | 41c | 238.76$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.89 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 31c | 218.84$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.38 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8351…9bebbacked Over | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 652 | 48.3%315 W · 337 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad88…3c1ebacked Under | 54c | 200$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92 | 483 | 54.7%264 W · 219 L | +20.8wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0633…cfdebacked Under | 39c | 194.07$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.38 | 105 | 55.2%58 W · 47 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ae0…8f73backed Under | 52c | 167.99$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.64 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.2wins | -0.36per pick | 53cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe624…2928backed Under | 52c | 167.54$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.74 | 496 | 49.8%247 W · 249 L | +11.5wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked Under | 53c | 165.75$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.13 | 825 | 51.6%426 W · 399 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc6fa…51e5backed Under | 39c | 158.22$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.96 | 294 | 46.6%137 W · 157 L | -9.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x42ac…2096backed Over | 68c | 148.01$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 68 | 51.5%35 W · 33 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Under | 54c | 126.94$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.39 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x938e…9b66backed Over | 48c | 125$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 481 | 50.7%244 W · 237 L | -19.3wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Under | 59c | 117.07$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe941…a496backed Under | 45c | 113.02$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.95 | 78 | 61.5%48 W · 30 L | +7.2wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Over | 47c | 112.5$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.87 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc6…b20dbacked Over | 53c | 110$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.3 | 619 | 48.6%301 W · 318 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82a5…674ebacked Under | 42c | 108.27$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.81 | 208 | 52.9%110 W · 98 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6de9…a8e5backed Over | 48c | 104.17$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Under | 52c | 100$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 1,836 | 50.8%932 W · 904 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4193…4853backed Under | 53c | 99.99$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 846 | 51.5%436 W · 410 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf375…a60cbacked Under | 53c | 94.34$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.34 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -2.7wins | -0.13per pick | 51cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 39c | 94.22$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.75 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9c…3648backed Under | 58c | 91.4$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.39 | 1,733 | 49%849 W · 884 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Under | 48c | 86$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.06 | 1,269 | 47.4%602 W · 667 L | -31.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 54c | 80.01$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.85 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x523c…2c05backed Under | 53c | 80$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.6 | 130 | 53.1%69 W · 61 L | -11.0wins | -0.08per pick | 62cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb8b9…7a6bbacked Under | 24c | 74.86$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.21 | 56 | 33.9%19 W · 37 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa21b…9e94backed Over | 48c | 72.92$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 486 | 51%248 W · 238 L | -18.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa9e…2264backed Under | 46c | 66.91$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.3 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70fc…ab12backed Under | 38c | 64.1$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 1,367 | 54.3%742 W · 625 L | +16.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 55c | 61$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.19 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Over | 59c | 60.43$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.65 | 2,583 | 61.4%1,587 W · 996 L | +70.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 69c | 60$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.4 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3d…316cbacked Under | 52c | 58$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.84 | 722 | 47.6%344 W · 378 L | -12.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc78…f1f5backed Over | 48c | 52.08$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 263 | 51.3%135 W · 128 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc96b…438abacked Over | 48c | 52.08$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 274 | 52.6%144 W · 130 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf3…f535backed Over | 58c | 46.24$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.03 | 107 | 57.9%62 W · 45 L | +8.8wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2baf…8023backed Over | 47c | 44$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.68 | 85 | 50.6%43 W · 42 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x590a…c459backed Over | 53c | 41.6$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.85 | 114 | 51.8%59 W · 55 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1729…b7acbacked Under | 49c | 40.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.62 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbaf9…3a59backed Under | 52c | 40$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.2 | 165 | 44.8%74 W · 91 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a6e…9bc5backed Over | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 75 | 58.7%44 W · 31 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a37…4daebacked Under | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 50 | 62%31 W · 19 L | +5.6wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 50c | 38.59$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.35 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b06…9d38backed Over | 47c | 31.19$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.66 | 45 | 64.4%29 W · 16 L | +4.6wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd5c5…bdacbacked Under | 47c | 31.05$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.32 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +110.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Over | 47c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.17 | 1,284 | 49.5%635 W · 649 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36b3…e421backed Over | 50c | 29.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 403 | 41.4%167 W · 236 L | -20.0wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc278…a116backed Under | 54c | 29.48$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.56 | 841 | 40.2%338 W · 503 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa877…2e20backed Under | 53c | 28$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.16 | 726 | 48.1%349 W · 377 L | -17.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95e4…5134backed Under | 40c | 25.78$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.47 | 62 | 48.4%30 W · 32 L | +3.0wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2bcf…c678backed Over | 48c | 24.04$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.56 | 246 | 54.9%135 W · 111 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16ea…9400backed Under | 51c | 23.9$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.61 | 252 | 49.6%125 W · 127 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45d5…a7a0backed Under | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.7 | 827 | 41.1%340 W · 487 L | -21.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5407…5bbdbacked Under | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 778 | 36%280 W · 498 L | -17.2wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd78e…6421backed Under | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 237 | 50.6%120 W · 117 L | -11.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- New York Yankees vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 7.5this page
- New York Yankees vs. Milwaukee BrewersMilwaukee Brewers won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5)Milwaukee Brewers won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: New York Yankees vs. Milwaukee BrewersNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.