Europa Conference League · resolved market
Spread: SC Freiburg (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0e9a2e56351aefbeab8d2a77920de053037b1ae5b138347c5d03a6da7a6265ba
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- FC Red Bull Salzburgof SC Freiburg, FC Red Bull Salzburg
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,956
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,959
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,956 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed SC Freiburg | 49c | 3,618$1,766 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,766.2 | 522 | 43.9%229 W · 293 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed FC Red Bull Salzburg | 54c | 3,593$1,926 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,666.71 | 3,726 | 47%1,750 W · 1,976 L | +20.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec13…862bbacked SC Freiburg | 44c | 2,009$884 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$883.93 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -2.9wins | -0.14per pick | 43cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0a26…1851backed FC Red Bull Salzburg | 56c | 2,000$1,120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$880 | 67 | 64.2%43 W · 24 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ba4…c08bbacked SC Freiburg | 42c | 480$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.6 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed FC Red Bull Salzburg | 54c | 361.27$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.69 | 848 | 50.8%431 W · 417 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23fe…9788backed FC Red Bull Salzburg | 54c | 306.41$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.49 | 86 | 58.1%50 W · 36 L | +5.6wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a93…32a0backed SC Freiburg | 47c | 200$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x00fe…eff7backed FC Red Bull Salzburg | 58c | 126$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.92 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x98e9…8dbebacked SC Freiburg | 50c | 102.12$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.06 | 39 | 46.2%18 W · 21 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x051c…f25dbacked SC Freiburg | 45c | 100$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | +4.3wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa710…f1ccbacked SC Freiburg | 45c | 88.89$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 152 | 24.3%37 W · 115 L | -6.9wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7f83…a491backed FC Red Bull Salzburg | 55c | 85$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed SC Freiburg | 43c | 77.11$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.14 | 338 | 47%159 W · 179 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f1c…0dd0backed FC Red Bull Salzburg | 56c | 70$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.8 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…dce6backed FC Red Bull Salzburg | 58c | 65$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.3 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7181…1b0abacked SC Freiburg | 46c | 54.79$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 37 | 62.2%23 W · 14 L | +2.8wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7bc…1e51backed FC Red Bull Salzburg | 57c | 40.43$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.27 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb29…ea29backed FC Red Bull Salzburg | 51c | 39.7$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.53 | 51 | 51%26 W · 25 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d1e…327abacked SC Freiburg | 40c | 38.16$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.38 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.15per pick | 55cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa48…9062backed SC Freiburg | 42c | 33$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.86 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 68cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9014…db4abacked FC Red Bull Salzburg | 57c | 31$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90f9…e894backed FC Red Bull Salzburg | 57c | 31$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65b5…a9f7backed FC Red Bull Salzburg | 57c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.75 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: SC Freiburg (-1.5)this page
- SC Freiburg vs. FC Red Bull Salzburg: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- SC Freiburg vs. FC Red Bull Salzburg: O/U 1.5Under won
- SC Freiburg vs. FC Red Bull Salzburg: O/U 2.5Under won
- SC Freiburg vs. FC Red Bull Salzburg: O/U 3.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.