Europa Conference League · resolved market
SC Freiburg vs. FC Red Bull Salzburg: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd2bef7984c2769398a7af211eb04f27dddf8f8c9b2628fadbc169af2bbb96351
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $28,446
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,292
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,446 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 68c | 8,505$5,788 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,717.48 | 3,726 | 47%1,750 W · 1,976 L | +20.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Over | 27c | 8,090$2,151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,150.9 | 522 | 43.9%229 W · 293 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ccb…0a10backed Over | 62c | 1,174$728 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$727.97 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.25per pick | 58cpaid | -51%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce2b…08fabacked Over | 59c | 932.2$550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$550 | 107 | 57%61 W · 46 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed Over | 65c | 770.55$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 99 | 54.5%54 W · 45 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23fe…9788backed Under | 71c | 738.27$525 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.95 | 86 | 58.1%50 W · 36 L | +5.6wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa7b7…0adbbacked Under | 38c | 666.31$253 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$413.11 | 25 | 76%19 W · 6 L | +5.7wins | +0.23per pick | 53cpaid | +43%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Under | 38c | 593.44$226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$367.41 | 338 | 47%159 W · 179 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Over | 56c | 532.79$298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$298.29 | 125 | 45.6%57 W · 68 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Over | 38c | 350.5$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.84 | 848 | 50.8%431 W · 417 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Over | 61c | 173.31$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.72 | 428 | 44.9%192 W · 236 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb29…ea29backed Under | 47c | 145.64$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.17 | 51 | 51%26 W · 25 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16b3…07f2backed Over | 43c | 116.28$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -2.0wins | -0.12per pick | 50cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd6…ab3dbacked Under | 35c | 100$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65 | 24 | 70.8%17 W · 7 L | +5.8wins | +0.24per pick | 47cpaid | +71.1%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xb226…e227backed Over | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b0e…5b17backed Over | 53c | 94.34$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0bd4…49b7backed Over | 60c | 83.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc32e…203dbacked Over | 62c | 80.65$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0cb6…b350backed Over | 64c | 78.13$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa354…b85fbacked Over | 32c | 75.47$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.15 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6e75…e81dbacked Under | 37c | 75$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.25 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked Under | 68c | 72.97$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.35 | 80 | 23.8%19 W · 61 L | -6.7wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5124…91bbbacked Over | 58c | 66$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.28 | 91 | 42.9%39 W · 52 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x00fe…eff7backed Under | 42c | 58$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.64 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Under | 38c | 53$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.86 | 379 | 26.1%99 W · 280 L | -8.1wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1677…1126backed Over | 60c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 158 | 46.8%74 W · 84 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74d7…6beabacked Over | 31c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 44 | 18.2%8 W · 36 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc427…ee41backed Under | 37c | 48$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.24 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbd…3d15backed Over | 61c | 43.51$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.54 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…ad8dbacked Over | 59c | 42.37$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x380c…1099backed Over | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 109 | 63.3%69 W · 40 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a4b…bbcabacked Over | 62c | 40.32$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 239 | 49.4%118 W · 121 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50a5…0bd7backed Under | 76c | 36.58$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.82 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0e6…71e4backed Under | 37c | 34.8$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.92 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +11%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e9b…829ebacked Over | 58c | 34.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 58 | 37.9%22 W · 36 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd28e…a78fbacked Over | 59c | 33.9$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7bc…1e51backed Under | 44c | 27.17$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.31 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a5c…b3f2backed Under | 71c | 27.06$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.98 | 101 | 43.6%44 W · 57 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8ae…7f3ebacked Over | 62c | 25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 96 | 44.8%43 W · 53 L | +4.3wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xac27…18e7backed Over | 58c | 23.28$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 32 | 75%24 W · 8 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc17…53b6backed Over | 58c | 21$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.18 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -3.1wins | -0.52per pick | 69cpaid | -75.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa4d0…9b74backed Over | 58c | 21$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.18 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a94…31e6backed Over | 63c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6014…5a58backed Over | 63c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.27per pick | 67cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4182…ae54backed Over | 63c | 19$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.97 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -2.5wins | -0.31per pick | 68cpaid | -51.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x426a…128bbacked Under | 72c | 18.63$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.25 | 58 | 50%29 W · 29 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3bc9…801ebacked Over | 63c | 18$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.34 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.16per pick | 60cpaid | -25%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe5ff…db1dbacked Over | 63c | 17$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.71 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.26per pick | 60cpaid | -45.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- SC Freiburg vs. FC Red Bull Salzburg: O/U 2.5this page
- SC Freiburg vs. FC Red Bull Salzburg: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- SC Freiburg vs. FC Red Bull Salzburg: O/U 1.5Under won
- SC Freiburg vs. FC Red Bull Salzburg: O/U 3.5Under won
- Spread: SC Freiburg (-1.5)FC Red Bull Salzburg won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.