Europa Conference League · resolved market
SC Freiburg vs. FC Red Bull Salzburg: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbdca848143779e3013b2de82020653eebb0247199bb84c46d313d1319cd87785
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,833
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,573
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,833 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Over | 17c | 3,858$646 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$645.52 | 522 | 43.9%229 W · 293 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x833a…5d74backed Over | 19c | 1,242$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.73 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bb8…a6fabacked Under | 74c | 1,112$821 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$291.2 | 13 | 92.3%12 W · 1 L | +2.1wins | +0.16per pick | 76cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Over | 21c | 834.04$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.92 | 848 | 50.8%431 W · 417 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1901…21c8backed Under | 77c | 650.55$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.55 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe50b…c2a8backed Under | 62c | 300$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114 | 154 | 59.1%91 W · 63 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Over | 38c | 299$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.62 | 125 | 45.6%57 W · 68 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa354…b85fbacked Over | 24c | 142.86$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.29 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbd…3d15backed Over | 39c | 103.49$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.36 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb95e…c6d6backed Over | 39c | 102$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.78 | 61 | 44.3%27 W · 34 L | -4.1wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa710…f1ccbacked Over | 41c | 97.56$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 152 | 24.3%37 W · 115 L | -6.9wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x50fc…ba9abacked Under | 60c | 70$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.30per pick | 54cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb113…8bc6backed Under | 59c | 67.27$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.58 | 93 | 45.2%42 W · 51 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5bbb…1594backed Under | 60c | 52$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.8 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x62a1…978abacked Over | 36c | 42.42$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf572…065abacked Under | 60c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b91…27dcbacked Over | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- SC Freiburg vs. FC Red Bull Salzburg: O/U 3.5this page
- SC Freiburg vs. FC Red Bull Salzburg: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- SC Freiburg vs. FC Red Bull Salzburg: O/U 1.5Under won
- SC Freiburg vs. FC Red Bull Salzburg: O/U 2.5Under won
- Spread: SC Freiburg (-1.5)FC Red Bull Salzburg won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.