Europa Conference League · resolved market
SC Freiburg vs. FC Red Bull Salzburg: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x169122953f8257856bde1aad5751894ac46acf07944c12e4ce9020c9de03e5d1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,597
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,577
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,597 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Over | 53c | 4,141$2,185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,184.8 | 522 | 43.9%229 W · 293 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Under | 36c | 1,810$651 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,159.33 | 848 | 50.8%431 W · 417 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 45c | 1,748$784 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$963.99 | 3,726 | 47%1,750 W · 1,976 L | +20.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb85…8464backed Under | 35c | 857.14$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$557.14 | 97 | 48.5%47 W · 50 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e49…63f2backed Under | 17c | 599.71$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$497.76 | 190 | 27.4%52 W · 138 L | +6.2wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x26e7…cc6cbacked Under | 53c | 377.35$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.35 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd12f…e80dbacked Over | 67c | 298.51$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | -4.6wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x981d…0741backed Under | 45c | 253.38$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.38 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x816e…8263backed Over | 62c | 177.42$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x23fe…9788backed Under | 49c | 163.4$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.27 | 86 | 58.1%50 W · 36 L | +5.6wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Under | 17c | 145$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.81 | 385 | 26.2%101 W · 284 L | -7.6wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbd…3d15backed Under | 19c | 111.72$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.92 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d11…c34dbacked Over | 69c | 90$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.1 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa5b3…0476backed Over | 58c | 86.21$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b0e…5b17backed Over | 62c | 82.26$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb29…ea29backed Under | 34c | 79.99$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.79 | 51 | 51%26 W · 25 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16b3…07f2backed Over | 67c | 74.63$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -2.0wins | -0.12per pick | 50cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x833a…5d74backed Under | 22c | 67.95$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5833…4893backed Over | 78c | 61.54$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd903…bf9dbacked Under | 17c | 60.97$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.6 | 40 | 42.5%17 W · 23 L | -3.2wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -22%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 20c | 56.29$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.1 | 351 | 58.1%204 W · 147 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe776…c379backed Under | 20c | 51.48$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.24 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x884d…1da6backed Over | 70c | 50$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 43 | 65.1%28 W · 15 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd3cf…493bbacked Over | 80c | 45.93$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.74 | 23 | 69.6%16 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 73cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a73…c2e5backed Over | 67c | 39.63$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.55 | 48 | 62.5%30 W · 18 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d54…81a1backed Over | 61c | 34.43$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x426a…128bbacked Under | 32c | 34.09$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.08 | 58 | 50%29 W · 29 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b03…ff9dbacked Over | 66c | 30.29$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 72cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe398…ee2ebacked Over | 64c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -3.1wins | -0.18per pick | 71cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd323…64acbacked Over | 63c | 26.98$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.21per pick | 59cpaid | +40.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0869…4268backed Over | 67c | 26.75$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x03dc…132abacked Over | 55c | 20.05$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.03 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6562…4e48backed Over | 75c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 71 | 52.1%37 W · 34 L | -6.8wins | -0.10per pick | 62cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Over | 75c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.31 | 200 | 47%94 W · 106 L | -11.3wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b1…042fbacked Over | 80c | 15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -3.0wins | -0.30per pick | 60cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- SC Freiburg vs. FC Red Bull Salzburg: O/U 1.5this page
- SC Freiburg vs. FC Red Bull Salzburg: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- SC Freiburg vs. FC Red Bull Salzburg: O/U 2.5Under won
- SC Freiburg vs. FC Red Bull Salzburg: O/U 3.5Under won
- Spread: SC Freiburg (-1.5)FC Red Bull Salzburg won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.