Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 27°C on June 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0ea0a8291ccc70db7331e510c6905537e491a00ee917a6ca0fe2e2d2d0ee148f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,896
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,086
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,896 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 2c | 1,032$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.88 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 70c | 617.44$434 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.72 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 10c | 597.25$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.26 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x302c…abcebacked Yes | 17c | 571.75$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.73 | 167 | 24.6%41 W · 126 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x081e…1e4ebacked Yes | 44c | 550.55$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$241.85 | 321 | 47.4%152 W · 169 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3da3…0fdcbacked Yes | 7c | 501.26$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.89 | 1,024 | 25%256 W · 768 L | +20.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a68…edd3backed Yes | 7c | 400$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 182 | 35.2%64 W · 118 L | -14.0wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x571d…4e76backed Yes | 33c | 397.64$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.47 | 46 | 41.3%19 W · 27 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c6…2b25backed Yes | 13c | 374.23$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 329 | 58.7%193 W · 136 L | +17.9wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0bd4…f2febacked Yes | 8c | 348.33$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.35 | 100 | 30%30 W · 70 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes | 10c | 347.09$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.91 | 1,032 | 24.3%251 W · 781 L | +40.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 9c | 306.38$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.05 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 5c | 300$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x78ed…ab3abacked Yes | 7c | 293.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 402 | 26.9%108 W · 294 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa967…79a5backed No | 48c | 267.1$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.86 | 80 | 50%40 W · 40 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2ff…238dbacked Yes | 10c | 258.67$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 72 | 55.6%40 W · 32 L | +5.1wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5b4a…089fbacked No | 64c | 221.15$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.73 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | +4.1wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xce07…5c3cbacked Yes | 39c | 210.52$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.97 | 310 | 62.6%194 W · 116 L | +38.4wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xea4a…39c8backed Yes | 12c | 207.72$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.71 | 223 | 35.9%80 W · 143 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e1d…dc67backed Yes | 7c | 200$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 33c | 186.67$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.53 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 9c | 181.17$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.31 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 12c | 169.53$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.53 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 52c | 156.25$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.54 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd13e…577ebacked Yes | 43c | 151.87$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.97 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebf0…2330backed Yes | 43c | 114.06$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.1 | 410 | 51.7%212 W · 198 L | +24.9wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5ea7…7450backed No | 80c | 90$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.25 | 417 | 60.4%252 W · 165 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed No | 54c | 85.23$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.23 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7284…b0f2backed Yes | 38c | 67.71$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.9 | 112 | 42%47 W · 65 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 41c | 58.24$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.46 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x8cf3…ca4abacked No | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed No | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.9 | 818 | 48.5%397 W · 421 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 69c | 48.08$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.8 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed Yes | 40c | 47.98$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.36 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x847c…9ff8backed Yes | 55c | 45.24$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 225 | 50.2%113 W · 112 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed Yes | 32c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.62 | 869 | 52.7%458 W · 411 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed Yes | 27c | 39.55$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfa9…6a4fbacked Yes | 60c | 38.04$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.75 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b1…79d7backed No | 55c | 37.39$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.92 | 889 | 73.2%651 W · 238 L | +20.3wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fcc…701bbacked Yes | 60c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 435 | 59.8%260 W · 175 L | +20.7wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x846b…63b6backed Yes | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.89 | 53 | 43.4%23 W · 30 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c27…ee11backed Yes | 52c | 27.6$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.37 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1ab…faadbacked No | 79c | 25.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.3 | 27 | 77.8%21 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 75cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c9a…edf6backed Yes | 60c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 66 | 48.5%32 W · 34 L | +3.9wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 27°C on June 30?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C or below on June 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C on June 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 28°C on June 30?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 29°C on June 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 30°C on June 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 31°C or higher on June 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.