Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 30°C on June 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5686b35ce23f1119fdbce27862f53005ba0327323bde6ad65fec6b3d6b2f044c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,059
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,725
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,059 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 77 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x302c…abcebacked Yes | 28c | 2,650$731 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$731.22 | 167 | 24.6%41 W · 126 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 17c | 1,485$258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$257.67 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 72c | 1,153$832 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$320.61 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 29c | 1,028$301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300.84 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 3c | 534.14$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.32 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0947…9e92backed No | 65c | 435.08$283 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.28 | 581 | 52%302 W · 279 L | +8.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 67c | 365$243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.16 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec86…60e4backed No | 77c | 335.51$258 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.71 | 1,163 | 38.2%444 W · 719 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 75c | 231.6$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.18 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 67c | 231.17$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.49 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 24c | 229.5$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed Yes | 26c | 222.34$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.78 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 8c | 219.98$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea4a…39c8backed Yes | 14c | 202.33$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 223 | 35.9%80 W · 143 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 71c | 200$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 75c | 169.12$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.47 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 74c | 166.45$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.64 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3bbc…e05dbacked Yes | 32c | 151.26$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.94 | 172 | 55.2%95 W · 77 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked Yes | 10c | 143.52$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.77 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb31b…b140backed No | 79c | 130$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.87 | 559 | 54.7%306 W · 253 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd34c…f04cbacked Yes | 24c | 129.43$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 673 | 36.1%243 W · 430 L | -48.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 72c | 109.77$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.24 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf83e…4663backed No | 66c | 109.68$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.44 | 281 | 63.7%179 W · 102 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 73c | 105$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.01 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fb…c038backed Yes | 20c | 105$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 439 | 32.8%144 W · 295 L | +20.3wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 57c | 100$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb55…ff0fbacked No | 66c | 100$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.5 | 155 | 29%45 W · 110 L | -9.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -27%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x170b…4737backed No | 67c | 100$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.9 | 809 | 57.6%466 W · 343 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked No | 68c | 98.2$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.89 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa7a…d837backed Yes | 28c | 95.74$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +2.5wins | +0.22per pick | 41cpaid | +59%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x571d…4e76backed Yes | 15c | 92.13$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.94 | 46 | 41.3%19 W · 27 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 28c | 89$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.54 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc1…a3bbbacked Yes | 30c | 85.72$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.38 | 876 | 29.2%256 W · 620 L | -53.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 29c | 75.53$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.57 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 67c | 73.33$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.07 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe92e…7cfcbacked Yes | 19c | 73.19$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.22 | 543 | 35%190 W · 353 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 17c | 71.48$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.15 | 1,122 | 24.4%274 W · 848 L | +24.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x188a…9fafbacked No | 67c | 70$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.85 | 196 | 62.2%122 W · 74 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe5a…24d6backed Yes | 19c | 68.27$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 22 | 9.1%2 W · 20 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 25c | 68.16$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.14 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 26c | 65.49$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.09 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 69c | 65.1$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.1 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 80c | 64$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.8 | 805 | 60.6%488 W · 317 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 68c | 62.41$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.2 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 74c | 60.89$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.9 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 75c | 60$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.8 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x077c…8b1fbacked No | 72c | 60$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 538 | 55%296 W · 242 L | -9.4wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfec1…b807backed No | 74c | 60$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.8 | 31 | 61.3%19 W · 12 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 67cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 25c | 60$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3c…ca16backed No | 70c | 57.14$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.14 | 149 | 34.2%51 W · 98 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea40…491dbacked No | 72c | 55.55$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.55 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.9wins | -0.31per pick | 65cpaid | -55.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0528…99dabacked No | 72c | 55.55$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.55 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -2.2wins | -0.17per pick | 63cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe37a…844dbacked No | 77c | 54.86$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.62 | 128 | 76.6%98 W · 30 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ad3…e651backed No | 77c | 52.14$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.14 | 333 | 51.7%172 W · 161 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa048…0250backed Yes | 27c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.56 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb664…abbdbacked Yes | 38c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 446 | 46.2%206 W · 240 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ab9…8ba6backed No | 64c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 304 | 42.8%130 W · 174 L | +8.5wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 72c | 48$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.31 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 80c | 48$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 69c | 44.99$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.82 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9cc…59abbacked No | 74c | 40.58$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.59 | 688 | 67.2%462 W · 226 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed No | 70c | 37.11$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.13 | 905 | 55.6%503 W · 402 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 74c | 37$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.64 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5968…3fc4backed No | 76c | 37$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.02 | 421 | 60.6%255 W · 166 L | -25.0wins | -0.06per pick | 67cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 71c | 33.86$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.76 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 76c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a09…9b7fbacked No | 73c | 29.14$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.87 | 158 | 50.6%80 W · 78 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 72c | 27.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.78 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 73c | 25.73$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.86 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6282…aaabbacked No | 78c | 25.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 421 | 51.8%218 W · 203 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc92…27c9backed No | 71c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.25 | 632 | 55.7%352 W · 280 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1632…ad5abacked No | 66c | 22.7$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.7 | 502 | 61%306 W · 196 L | -17.9wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 76c | 22.07$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.23 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 73c | 20.62$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.57 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 1,088 | 55.5%604 W · 484 L | -27.6wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43fd…59d3backed No | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 159 | 61.6%98 W · 61 L | -5.7wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 30°C on June 30?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C or below on June 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C on June 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 27°C on June 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 28°C on June 30?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 29°C on June 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 31°C or higher on June 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.