Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 29°C on June 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdc2eef2da20582bd31d97c5804a735576e34f88d21bf510e08f15900b2df6358
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,369
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,878
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,369 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 116 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x302c…abcebacked Yes | 36c | 1,700$606 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$606.41 | 167 | 24.6%41 W · 126 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92e3…ab49backed Yes | 27c | 1,343$362 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$362.49 | 71 | 38%27 W · 44 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 8c | 913.99$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.63 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 11c | 646.79$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.99 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 65c | 609.02$394 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.83 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 67c | 559.26$373 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.86 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 4c | 500.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.35 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb31b…b140backed No | 73c | 500$365 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135 | 559 | 54.7%306 W · 253 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed Yes | 39c | 463.81$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.16 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 32c | 411.65$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.18 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 70c | 315$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.98 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x081e…1e4ebacked No | 80c | 304.7$244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.13 | 321 | 47.4%152 W · 169 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 56c | 292.58$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.8 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 53c | 255.52$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.36 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed No | 73c | 243.27$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.68 | 775 | 55.2%428 W · 347 L | -13.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc3…3472backed No | 73c | 241.18$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.88 | 600 | 54.2%325 W · 275 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 65c | 231.6$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.09 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0bd4…f2febacked Yes | 12c | 231.44$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.89 | 100 | 30%30 W · 70 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed Yes | 5c | 211.5$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.51 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf421…efcebacked Yes | 7c | 211.09$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.76 | 428 | 20.1%86 W · 342 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3fa…4531backed Yes | 31c | 203.83$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.25 | 319 | 36.1%115 W · 204 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3271…cd33backed Yes | 19c | 201.28$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.55 | 135 | 31.1%42 W · 93 L | +8.7wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 69c | 200$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 11c | 196.32$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.16 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea4a…39c8backed Yes | 42c | 189.58$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.02 | 223 | 35.9%80 W · 143 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 33c | 180$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.7 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 74c | 179.12$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.89 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 70c | 144.85$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.98 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed No | 55c | 136.36$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.36 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 56c | 125.64$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.15 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc05…9a76backed No | 67c | 121.99$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.66 | 284 | 55.6%158 W · 126 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 70c | 119.74$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.48 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 70c | 115.42$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.63 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 60c | 108.22$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.44 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c3…20e0backed No | 58c | 106$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.52 | 637 | 57.6%367 W · 270 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 18c | 104.14$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.1 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 69c | 101.58$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.49 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8370…e1efbacked Yes | 48c | 100$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 265 | 40.8%108 W · 157 L | +7.3wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd514…bbdfbacked No | 51c | 100$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 579 | 48.4%280 W · 299 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…3cc9backed No | 63c | 100$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 701 | 48.4%339 W · 362 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3bbc…e05dbacked No | 67c | 100$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 172 | 55.2%95 W · 77 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 30c | 93$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.19 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed Yes | 34c | 90.59$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.8 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ad3…e651backed Yes | 34c | 89.29$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 333 | 51.7%172 W · 161 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 65c | 85.08$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.13 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc426…ac6ebacked No | 56c | 83.28$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.64 | 146 | 46.6%68 W · 78 L | -7.9wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 31c | 82.05$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.44 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5970…c99bbacked Yes | 30c | 79.19$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.76 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ea7…7450backed No | 66c | 76.75$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.88 | 417 | 60.4%252 W · 165 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x019c…e8d2backed No | 48c | 73.16$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.91 | 565 | 43.5%246 W · 319 L | -31.8wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 51c | 73.03$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.91 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed Yes | 33c | 72.35$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.88 | 818 | 48.5%397 W · 421 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6282…aaabbacked Yes | 28c | 71.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 421 | 51.8%218 W · 203 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xead3…b125backed No | 71c | 70.42$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.42 | 72 | 52.8%38 W · 34 L | -4.2wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf370…4f88backed No | 53c | 70.16$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.98 | 388 | 60.1%233 W · 155 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 66c | 70$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.77 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 59c | 65$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.9 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 68c | 62.41$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.69 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb46…56e7backed Yes | 49c | 61.11$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 421 | 48%202 W · 219 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x077c…8b1fbacked No | 63c | 60$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.2 | 538 | 55%296 W · 242 L | -9.4wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1a5…132bbacked Yes | 51c | 58.92$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 107 | 46.7%50 W · 57 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4149…44c4backed Yes | 32c | 56.82$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.46 | 154 | 49.4%76 W · 78 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4e…5ac9backed No | 64c | 54.87$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.87 | 214 | 72%154 W · 60 L | +7.9wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | +6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed No | 53c | 52.96$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.08 | 869 | 52.7%458 W · 411 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed No | 58c | 52.58$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.05 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb251…caa4backed No | 73c | 52.39$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.15 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb88…b60abacked Yes | 35c | 51$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe6e…2313backed No | 55c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 262 | 56.5%148 W · 114 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc1…a3bbbacked Yes | 23c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 876 | 29.2%256 W · 620 L | -53.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7320…0a3fbacked No | 55c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 161 | 48.4%78 W · 83 L | -6.0wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4af9…3144backed No | 55c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 219 | 50.7%111 W · 108 L | -10.6wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7eb5…9400backed No | 63c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.5 | 527 | 58.8%310 W · 217 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4476…c5fcbacked No | 53c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.5 | 425 | 47.5%202 W · 223 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21d3…8c5fbacked No | 55c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 133 | 51.1%68 W · 65 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb31a…8817backed No | 55c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 182 | 54.4%99 W · 83 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe67c…3de5backed Yes | 34c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | -3.3wins | -0.10per pick | 42cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xae8f…c820backed Yes | 51c | 49.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.49 | 635 | 38.1%242 W · 393 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13de…fd91backed Yes | 40c | 49.84$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.12 | 755 | 46.1%348 W · 407 L | -32.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa33d…3ef2backed No | 72c | 48.61$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.61 | 456 | 75.2%343 W · 113 L | +27.6wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +13%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 69c | 44.99$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.05 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe00a…330ebacked Yes | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 207 | 50.2%104 W · 103 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe558…0ca2backed No | 65c | 43.3$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.95 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 26c | 42$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.81 | 1,122 | 24.4%274 W · 848 L | +24.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7a6…84dcbacked Yes | 51c | 41.73$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.28 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0b5…e373backed Yes | 29c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 151 | 28.5%43 W · 108 L | -12.7wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x86ae…29fdbacked Yes | 44c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 32c | 39.71$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.52 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…1a00backed Yes | 49c | 39.65$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.43 | 361 | 50.4%182 W · 179 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed Yes | 51c | 37.77$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.09 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc3f…e0c1backed Yes | 40c | 37.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | -3.5wins | -0.19per pick | 30cpaid | -61.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xca07…6269backed No | 62c | 33.59$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.76 | 716 | 49.4%354 W · 362 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b8f…e17ebacked No | 60c | 33.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.43 | 272 | 48.9%133 W · 139 L | -10.1wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a09…9b7fbacked No | 60c | 33.15$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.26 | 158 | 50.6%80 W · 78 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9fe5…4745backed No | 47c | 32.12$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.91 | 186 | 29.6%55 W · 131 L | -15.3wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x34c4…9c93backed No | 56c | 32$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.08 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x376c…41acbacked Yes | 50c | 31.28$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.64 | 45 | 33.3%15 W · 30 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3272…3845backed Yes | 50c | 30.75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.38 | 132 | 42.4%56 W · 76 L | +5.6wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 69c | 30.02$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.3 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 60c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d64…e3fdbacked Yes | 52c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 33 | 33.3%11 W · 22 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 29°C on June 30?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C or below on June 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C on June 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 27°C on June 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 28°C on June 30?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 30°C on June 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 31°C or higher on June 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.