Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 28°C on June 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x18a4170d420535ad5050ef6e3cb65c88c0a38820df2faeee6e6376cef9b110c2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,621
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $31,437
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,621 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 136 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x78ed…ab3abacked Yes | 33c | 2,094$682 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,411.6 | 402 | 26.9%108 W · 294 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x302c…abcebacked Yes | 40c | 1,852$732 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,119.99 | 167 | 24.6%41 W · 126 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ff…6ab4backed No | 74c | 796.72$591 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$590.6 | 49 | 65.3%32 W · 17 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 77c | 715.46$550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$549.71 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfa9…6a4fbacked No | 4c | 638.08$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.47 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x081e…1e4ebacked Yes | 62c | 550.89$339 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$211.75 | 321 | 47.4%152 W · 169 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 19c | 353.49$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$286.9 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 74c | 337.68$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251.45 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 76c | 335.41$256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255.85 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x40e3…2433backed Yes | 57c | 312.71$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.21 | 10 | 100%10 W · 0 L | +3.7wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +65.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 14c | 309.97$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$266.81 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 24c | 262.07$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.36 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 20c | 246.03$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.09 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 73c | 244.58$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.62 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc3…3472backed No | 64c | 238.63$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.19 | 600 | 54.2%325 W · 275 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0bd4…f2febacked Yes | 38c | 234.9$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.23 | 100 | 30%30 W · 70 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 74c | 231.6$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.49 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 80c | 226.48$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.85 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked No | 78c | 220.55$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.04 | 971 | 52.2%507 W · 464 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb901…9fc4backed No | 7c | 220.01$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 118 | 83.9%99 W · 19 L | +34.3wins | +0.29per pick | 55cpaid | +63.4%equal weight | 77+0.24 edge/pick |
| 0xcca2…fa31backed No | 48c | 206.29$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | +5.4wins | +0.14per pick | 31cpaid | +48.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 58c | 203.09$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.12 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 75c | 200.71$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.61 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 51c | 192.65$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.87 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 27c | 190.77$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.14 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed No | 14c | 178$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.92 | 621 | 9.8%61 W · 560 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea4a…39c8backed Yes | 32c | 175.26$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.67 | 223 | 35.9%80 W · 143 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82df…0f66backed Yes | 60c | 172.28$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.15 | 69 | 89.9%62 W · 7 L | +25.3wins | +0.37per pick | 53cpaid | +111%equal weight | 80+0.27 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 68c | 169.12$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.75 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed No | 10c | 166.21$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.83 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 68c | 160$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.8 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 75c | 159.51$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.33 | 1,088 | 55.5%604 W · 484 L | -27.6wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 70c | 155.63$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.34 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x73d0…6972backed No | 16c | 154.58$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 229 | 59.8%137 W · 92 L | +6.7wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 74c | 150$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0947…9e92backed Yes | 25c | 150$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.5 | 581 | 52%302 W · 279 L | +8.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3272…3845backed Yes | 24c | 145.3$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.73 | 132 | 42.4%56 W · 76 L | +5.6wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 65c | 143.97$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.51 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 7c | 138.62$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.16 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 50c | 137.47$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.23 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb2ff…238dbacked Yes | 62c | 118.78$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.78 | 72 | 55.6%40 W · 32 L | +5.1wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xef65…d64fbacked No | 73c | 113.99$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.21 | 191 | 71.7%137 W · 54 L | +12.1wins | +0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 47c | 106.52$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.38 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 25c | 105.07$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.8 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7615…308abacked No | 12c | 103.31$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.34 | 184 | 41.3%76 W · 108 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -23%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc05…9a76backed No | 80c | 102$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.6 | 284 | 55.6%158 W · 126 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8370…e1efbacked Yes | 40c | 100$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 265 | 40.8%108 W · 157 L | +7.3wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x53c0…33a5backed Yes | 60c | 100$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.08 | 226 | 45.1%102 W · 124 L | -12.2wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb1db…62afbacked Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.49 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | -2.4wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3271…cd33backed Yes | 38c | 99.13$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.99 | 135 | 31.1%42 W · 93 L | +8.7wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 36c | 97.7$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.53 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 53c | 96$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.11 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 23c | 90$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.3 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf56c…ad84backed Yes | 50c | 88.99$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.79 | 507 | 3.4%17 W · 490 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3bbc…e05dbacked No | 74c | 87$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.38 | 172 | 55.2%95 W · 77 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc1…a3bbbacked Yes | 24c | 85.56$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.03 | 876 | 29.2%256 W · 620 L | -53.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 18c | 84.51$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.93 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ecc…c745backed No | 49c | 80$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.2 | 179 | 47.5%85 W · 94 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed Yes | 29c | 79.18$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.22 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 77c | 76.63$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.01 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 59c | 75.91$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.71 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb31b…b140backed No | 79c | 75.74$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.74 | 559 | 54.7%306 W · 253 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed Yes | 38c | 74.99$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.55 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x234c…90dbbacked Yes | 20c | 73.76$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.76 | 581 | 38.9%226 W · 355 L | +10.9wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed Yes | 63c | 73.25$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.15 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 42c | 72.33$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.38 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x571d…4e76backed Yes | 33c | 72.26$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.32 | 46 | 41.3%19 W · 27 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x846b…63b6backed No | 28c | 71.73$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 53 | 43.4%23 W · 30 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 75c | 70$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.78 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 33c | 67$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.72 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 78c | 66.18$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.47 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 74c | 65$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.35 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 39c | 63.43$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.4 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 78c | 62.41$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.51 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ea7…7450backed No | 55c | 62.24$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.24 | 417 | 60.4%252 W · 165 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x077c…8b1fbacked No | 77c | 60$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.07 | 538 | 55%296 W · 242 L | -9.4wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65c7…e100backed Yes | 38c | 60$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.48 | 227 | 44.1%100 W · 127 L | +6.2wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ed…156fbacked No | 75c | 54$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.5 | 123 | 51.2%63 W · 60 L | -9.5wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcc3f…e0c1backed Yes | 26c | 53.7$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.49 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | -3.5wins | -0.19per pick | 30cpaid | -61.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xae8f…c820backed Yes | 23c | 52$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.04 | 635 | 38.1%242 W · 393 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes | 29c | 51.16$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.16 | 462 | 40.5%187 W · 275 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33e8…dc93backed Yes | 25c | 50$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.5 | 239 | 41.4%99 W · 140 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 78c | 50$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.1 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf18c…18c1backed Yes | 23c | 50$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.5 | 439 | 59.5%261 W · 178 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed Yes | 23c | 50$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.71 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4c2…f88bbacked Yes | 70c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 99 | 60.6%60 W · 39 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x170b…4737backed No | 77c | 50$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.6 | 809 | 57.6%466 W · 343 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked No | 77c | 50$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.25 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e1a…d5a3backed Yes | 58c | 49.99$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked No | 59c | 48.76$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.64 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 78c | 48$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.38 | 985 | 65.1%641 W · 344 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed No | 71c | 47.74$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.06 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 71c | 47.66$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 77c | 44.99$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.54 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13de…fd91backed No | 64c | 44.67$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.59 | 755 | 46.1%348 W · 407 L | -32.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4e…5ac9backed No | 72c | 41.6$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 214 | 72%154 W · 60 L | +7.9wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | +6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe3f5…f4f5backed Yes | 25c | 41.55$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.16 | 52 | 30.8%16 W · 36 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5484…84e8backed No | 63c | 41$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.02 | 111 | 69.4%77 W · 34 L | +5.7wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1fcc…701bbacked No | 29c | 40.89$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 435 | 59.8%260 W · 175 L | +20.7wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x52dc…33c9backed Yes | 37c | 40.11$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.11 | 769 | 36.3%279 W · 490 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 28°C on June 30?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C or below on June 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C on June 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 27°C on June 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 29°C on June 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 30°C on June 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 31°C or higher on June 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.