Champions League · resolved market
Will Benfica beat AS Monaco?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0eb7e16833d8313f82d98f1d04ce5fa6cb6941a50212b3e64b1566db815f13b4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,819
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,499
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,819 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Champions League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Yes | 18c | 2,500$440 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,060 | 239 | 42.7%102 W · 137 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed Yes | 35c | 1,006$352 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$654.1 | 402 | 22.9%92 W · 310 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | +9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0269…cb2dbacked No | 65c | 1,000$650 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$650 | 170 | 53.5%91 W · 79 L | +7.7wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x07f6…2ed5backed Yes | 14c | 1,000$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$860 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f7…039abacked No | 68c | 583.15$397 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$396.54 | 44 | 36.4%16 W · 28 L | -3.8wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8b21…41fabacked No | 68c | 499.98$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$339.98 | 129 | 56.6%73 W · 56 L | +8.4wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x50e5…e39fbacked Yes | 7c | 444.8$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$411.83 | 247 | 52.2%129 W · 118 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac97…a99ebacked No | 66c | 420.2$277 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$277.33 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc661…56debacked Yes | 32c | 312.5$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.5 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05ad…72d7backed Yes | 46c | 283.34$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.97 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 57c | 205$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.9 | 257 | 35%90 W · 167 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe34…cf4cbacked No | 68c | 180.5$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.72 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | -2.5wins | -0.08per pick | 62cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3b7…520dbacked Yes | 33c | 163.79$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.48 | 107 | 43%46 W · 61 L | +5.2wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbac1…ce0ebacked Yes | 34c | 147.06$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.06 | 123 | 33.3%41 W · 82 L | -5.2wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xadbc…7784backed Yes | 32c | 100$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x538a…bd78backed Yes | 22c | 99.94$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.96 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x54f0…7a91backed Yes | 32c | 93.75$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.75 | 56 | 25%14 W · 42 L | +4.5wins | +0.08per pick | 17cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x99c2…ef35backed No | 67c | 89.79$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.16 | 74 | 60.8%45 W · 29 L | +6.5wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +37.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x22d3…5e3abacked Yes | 20c | 86.25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +75%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x682a…4b62backed Yes | 15c | 80$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.8wins | +0.20per pick | 35cpaid | +164%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8a27…fe44backed Yes | 32c | 62.5$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.5 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +3.5wins | +0.19per pick | 36cpaid | +59.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4109…7e24backed No | 70c | 56.07$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.1 | 183 | 50.3%92 W · 91 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01a9…f42fbacked Yes | 32c | 35.8$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.4 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2399…2332backed Yes | 47c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.9 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Benfica beat AS Monaco?this page
- Will Monaco beat Benfica?No won
- Will the match between Monaco and Benfica end in a draw?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.