Spread: Manchester City (-1.5)

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0ee78317ff59dba0bb9a13fea24447865fa076a4311404f7214ff1e85f2986a3

Rebuilt 11 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Newcastleof Manchester City, Newcastle
Resolved: Nov 22, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $25,606
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $25,898

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,606 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Premier League
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x204f…5e14backed Newcastle	73c	13,265$9,674 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,590.89	6,117	45.8%2,803 W · 3,314 L	-28.6wins	0.00per pick	46cpaid	-12.4%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Manchester City	27c	12,744$3,433 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,433.01	1,212	41.7%505 W · 707 L	-1.6wins	0.00per pick	42cpaid	-1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Newcastle	71c	2,525$1,796 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$729.12	1,272	50.4%641 W · 631 L	-53.9wins	-0.04per pick	55cpaid	-12.3%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Newcastle	74c	2,139$1,585 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$553.39	2,212	49.3%1,091 W · 1,121 L	-9.3wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	-4.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd48a…6e90backed Newcastle	78c	1,410$1,100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$309.62	157	57.3%90 W · 67 L	-2.6wins	-0.02per pick	59cpaid	-5.2%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc6b4…1014backed Manchester City	28c	1,071$300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$300	32	31.3%10 W · 22 L	-2.1wins	-0.06per pick	38cpaid	-24%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5028…91c5backed Manchester City	27c	999.15$268 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$268.19	103	30.1%31 W · 72 L	-1.4wins	-0.01per pick	31cpaid	+11.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5fef…5840backed Manchester City	29c	689.66$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	27	29.6%8 W · 19 L	-5.0wins	-0.19per pick	48cpaid	-48.5%equal weight	39-0.10 edge/pick
0xc85f…15f8backed Manchester City	28c	628.57$176 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$176	115	57.4%66 W · 49 L	+2.2wins	+0.02per pick	55cpaid	+1.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8dcf…146ebacked Manchester City	29c	557.14$160 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$160	82	43.9%36 W · 46 L	-3.2wins	-0.04per pick	48cpaid	-17.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x06c2…184fbacked Manchester City	26c	480$125 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$124.8	72	52.8%38 W · 34 L	+5.1wins	+0.07per pick	46cpaid	+14.2%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Newcastle	74c	476$352 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$123.76	492	54.9%270 W · 222 L	+5.4wins	+0.01per pick	54cpaid	+6.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5ea5…2af9backed Newcastle	78c	412.23$320 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$92.23	134	49.3%66 W · 68 L	-9.7wins	-0.07per pick	56cpaid	-9.7%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x385e…3896backed Manchester City	26c	384.62$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	118	39%46 W · 72 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	39cpaid	-1.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf135…b072backed Manchester City	27c	365.11$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	12	41.7%5 W · 7 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	43cpaid	-21%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x5137…1556backed Manchester City	24c	341.77$82 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$81.98	370	36.2%134 W · 236 L	-18.1wins	-0.05per pick	41cpaid	-14.5%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xcf83…915dbacked Manchester City	29c	326.41$95 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$94.66	34	38.2%13 W · 21 L	+0.9wins	+0.03per pick	36cpaid	+21.4%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xdb27…c56ebacked Newcastle	71c	312.62$222 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$90.66	153	44.4%68 W · 85 L	+1.9wins	+0.01per pick	43cpaid	+5.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaf17…9c04backed Manchester City	23c	299.98$69 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$69	67	28.4%19 W · 48 L	+1.2wins	+0.02per pick	27cpaid	-4.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xff81…44c9backed Manchester City	34c	294.12$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	114	43.9%50 W · 64 L	-1.4wins	-0.01per pick	45cpaid	+3.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc8b4…f05dbacked Newcastle	75c	272$204 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$68	308	51.3%158 W · 150 L	-4.7wins	-0.02per pick	53cpaid	-5.2%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe931…138bbacked Manchester City	28c	267.86$75 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$75	26	38.5%10 W · 16 L	-2.8wins	-0.11per pick	49cpaid	-31.5%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9e87…8befbacked Newcastle	77c	259.74$200 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$59.74	118	55.1%65 W · 53 L	-3.1wins	-0.03per pick	58cpaid	-3.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa8bd…df80backed Manchester City	32c	243.75$78 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$78	82	37.8%31 W · 51 L	-4.7wins	-0.06per pick	44cpaid	-13.7%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5a3c…93d7backed Manchester City	26c	211.54$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55	86	32.6%28 W · 58 L	-1.5wins	-0.02per pick	34cpaid	-7.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x931f…d15dbacked Newcastle	78c	191.23$150 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$41.23	110	52.7%58 W · 52 L	-5.1wins	-0.05per pick	57cpaid	-8.4%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x71c1…e358backed Manchester City	28c	175.49$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	327	37.6%123 W · 204 L	+3.7wins	+0.01per pick	36cpaid	+2.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbf32…aecbbacked Manchester City	27c	150.63$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.67	6	16.7%1 W · 5 L	-1.5wins	-0.26per pick	42cpaid	-76.9%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa35f…b58fbacked Manchester City	28c	138.42$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38.76	234	35.9%84 W · 150 L	-1.6wins	-0.01per pick	37cpaid	-1.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x15ba…f30dbacked Newcastle	77c	123.04$95 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$28.04	152	45.4%69 W · 83 L	+6.4wins	+0.04per pick	41cpaid	+7.4%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa26e…d280backed Manchester City	29c	103.45$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	100	31%31 W · 69 L	-8.4wins	-0.08per pick	39cpaid	-12%equal weight	43-0.07 edge/pick
0x7705…a442backed Manchester City	28c	100$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28	196	32.7%64 W · 132 L	+2.8wins	+0.01per pick	31cpaid	+10.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x553b…f71cbacked Manchester City	23c	100$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23	54	42.6%23 W · 31 L	-3.4wins	-0.06per pick	49cpaid	-21.6%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x45d1…7017backed Newcastle	71c	100$71 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$29	53	47.2%25 W · 28 L	+1.3wins	+0.02per pick	45cpaid	+5.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed Newcastle	74c	99.58$74 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$25.89	1,006	46.6%469 W · 537 L	-20.5wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-5.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6a5c…b3f2backed Newcastle	75c	92.15$69 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$23.19	259	49.4%128 W · 131 L	-4.0wins	-0.02per pick	51cpaid	-10%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xaac2…df3abacked Manchester City	28c	89$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.92	4	25%1 W · 3 L	-0.6wins	-0.14per pick	39cpaid	-47.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa8f5…1caabacked Newcastle	75c	86$65 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$21.5	201	50.2%101 W · 100 L	-6.1wins	-0.03per pick	53cpaid	-5.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x742f…d673backed Manchester City	42c	83$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.81	282	46.1%130 W · 152 L	-12.2wins	-0.04per pick	50cpaid	-16.1%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc48e…146fbacked Manchester City	25c	80.87$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.01	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.7wins	-0.36per pick	36cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x86d5…4a04backed Manchester City	25c	80$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+0.6wins	+0.31per pick	19cpaid	+284.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xfd6d…c733backed Manchester City	28c	70$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.6	63	30.2%19 W · 44 L	-9.5wins	-0.15per pick	45cpaid	-37.3%equal weight	38-0.11 edge/pick
0xd0c5…8c8abacked Manchester City	29c	68.97$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	129	35.7%46 W · 83 L	+3.5wins	+0.03per pick	33cpaid	-6.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x505c…1604backed Manchester City	29c	65.41$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.97	13	23.1%3 W · 10 L	-0.9wins	-0.07per pick	30cpaid	-5.8%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x98a4…3c7abacked Manchester City	28c	53.57$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.3wins	-0.10per pick	43cpaid	-35.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd2ae…f36bbacked Manchester City	27c	49.96$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.49	178	49.4%88 W · 90 L	+0.8wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-7.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x04b3…ad8dbacked Manchester City	25c	40$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	68	54.4%37 W · 31 L	+4.2wins	+0.06per pick	48cpaid	+9.9%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x725a…c06cbacked Manchester City	25c	40$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	36	38.9%14 W · 22 L	-4.4wins	-0.12per pick	51cpaid	-23.4%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x34da…367fbacked Newcastle	75c	33$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8.25	47	42.6%20 W · 27 L	+0.7wins	+0.02per pick	41cpaid	+0.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd612…0bc1backed Newcastle	77c	25.97$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5.97	172	54.1%93 W · 79 L	-7.4wins	-0.04per pick	58cpaid	-9.2%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9e2d…24c8backed Newcastle	77c	25.97$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5.97	2	50%1 W · 1 L	-0.4wins	-0.18per pick	68cpaid	-35.1%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xfcb5…9bf1backed Newcastle	76c	20.1$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4.82	373	42.6%159 W · 214 L	-7.3wins	-0.02per pick	45cpaid	-5.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbb5f…933ebacked Newcastle	77c	20$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4.6	3	66.7%2 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.04per pick	71cpaid	-15%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8e92…468fbacked Newcastle	75c	20$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5	6	66.7%4 W · 2 L	+0.4wins	+0.07per pick	59cpaid	+1.6%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Spread: Manchester City (-1.5)this page
Newcastle vs. Manchester City: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
Newcastle vs. Manchester City: O/U 2.5Over won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Spread: Manchester City (-1.5)

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event