Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 76-77°F on August 16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0ef0e000aded9f614a655bd19087e24a1d346dd39890422563e744e4d244b121
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,700
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,012
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,700 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 66c | 1,083$719 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$363.46 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd22…2013backed Yes | 50c | 461.18$233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$228.67 | 314 | 54.1%170 W · 144 L | +31.3wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 58c | 446.64$261 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.05 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2779…239abacked No | 32c | 393.88$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.04 | 45 | 57.8%26 W · 19 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed Yes | 60c | 385.56$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.28 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 33c | 379$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.41 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x986b…2721backed Yes | 76c | 355.29$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.03 | 203 | 58.1%118 W · 85 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 11c | 343.53$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.98 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 32c | 325.21$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.39 | 382 | 43.2%165 W · 217 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked No | 26c | 220.95$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.03 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed No | 33c | 211.09$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.61 | 886 | 28.9%256 W · 630 L | -22.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 28c | 138.71$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.18 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x65f7…86ddbacked No | 34c | 135$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.09 | 257 | 58%149 W · 108 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 37c | 128.42$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.03 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 33c | 109.96$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.32 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x094a…a9d2backed No | 23c | 109.81$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.74 | 292 | 19.5%57 W · 235 L | +12.3wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7eb5…9400backed No | 55c | 100$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 527 | 58.8%310 W · 217 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41e6…66b7backed No | 40c | 85.03$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.41 | 468 | 57.3%268 W · 200 L | -22.3wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 67c | 83.57$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.21 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked Yes | 73c | 80.55$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.95 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 32c | 80$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.6 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 34c | 70.55$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.31 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3990…06bebacked No | 37c | 62.15$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.7 | 299 | 27.8%83 W · 216 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb338…5e1abacked Yes | 79c | 60.63$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.73 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3904…539bbacked Yes | 67c | 60.29$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.1 | 427 | 62.8%268 W · 159 L | +16.3wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7893…5d48backed Yes | 30c | 57.47$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.45 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.67per pick | 33cpaid | +205.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 28c | 55.62$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.44 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 51c | 55.16$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.38 | 771 | 51%393 W · 378 L | +23.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 41c | 54.79$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.63 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 42c | 52.52$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.02 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x34a3…f04fbacked Yes | 47c | 51.99$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.39 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa047…4ffabacked No | 52c | 48.14$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.98 | 760 | 59.2%450 W · 310 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d8c…3e30backed Yes | 78c | 46$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.12 | 123 | 50.4%62 W · 61 L | -14.7wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 53c | 45.26$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 68c | 44.55$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.16 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 54c | 41.5$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.23 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad5c…62b5backed Yes | 70c | 40.03$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.87 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 35c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.9 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 32c | 36.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.79 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 34c | 35.69$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.26 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 39c | 32.01$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.34 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 70c | 31.94$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.72 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc800…4117backed Yes | 62c | 31$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.78 | 33 | 30.3%10 W · 23 L | -2.1wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 66c | 28.06$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.54 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x558f…1a56backed No | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 548 | 67.3%369 W · 179 L | +26.4wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 66c | 24.45$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.29 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed No | 47c | 24$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.28 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe9d5…ce23backed No | 46c | 24$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.92 | 150 | 62.7%94 W · 56 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa595…cdf1backed Yes | 75c | 23.47$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.87 | 155 | 61.9%96 W · 59 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x95d3…6effbacked Yes | 50c | 20.2$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.1 | 317 | 48.6%154 W · 163 L | +16.0wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x351a…f836backed Yes | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 286 | 49.3%141 W · 145 L | +7.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed Yes | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb67…970abacked Yes | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3646…ba5abacked Yes | 67c | 19.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.7 | 407 | 41.3%168 W · 239 L | +32.5wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7b25…e4bebacked Yes | 61c | 16.77$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.54 | 127 | 58.3%74 W · 53 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked Yes | 74c | 16.03$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.11 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x036d…e888backed Yes | 75c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.75 | 78 | 71.8%56 W · 22 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 76-77°F on August 16?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on August 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 78-79°F on August 16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.