NHL · resolved market
Capitals vs. Blackhawks: O/U 6.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0f073ee97f66087f5d5c9c3d23665c2f7353f849eb0c40d58b496392ada91b58
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,226
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,232
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,226 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Over | 46c | 1,273$584 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$584.47 | 1,948 | 49.4%962 W · 986 L | +24.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 54c | 828.59$447 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$381.15 | 1,679 | 54.4%914 W · 765 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd80…eb96backed Under | 56c | 473.58$268 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.04 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -2.3wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb113…8bc6backed Under | 54c | 307$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.22 | 495 | 46.5%230 W · 265 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Over | 59c | 286$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.03 | 2,314 | 46.5%1,075 W · 1,239 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 43c | 244.4$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.93 | 2,894 | 51.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 40c | 238.53$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.08 | 2,664 | 51.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef2e…8d89backed Over | 45c | 155.56$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 196 | 51.5%101 W · 95 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 31c | 144.59$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.39 | 629 | 51.2%322 W · 307 L | +18.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa295…f55abacked Under | 57c | 125.56$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.99 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +1.9wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x28a2…91a4backed Under | 56c | 116$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.04 | 61 | 65.6%40 W · 21 L | +7.9wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdfc1…818dbacked Over | 45c | 102$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 303 | 49.5%150 W · 153 L | -13.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Over | 45c | 100.73$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.01 | 127 | 33.1%42 W · 85 L | -10.1wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x09d2…cc27backed Over | 70c | 100$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 152 | 38.8%59 W · 93 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -19%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1787…c311backed Under | 56c | 89.1$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.1 | 696 | 53.4%372 W · 324 L | -16.8wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d28…7a6dbacked Over | 44c | 67.98$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.25 | 352 | 48%169 W · 183 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Under | 55c | 59$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.31 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Over | 44c | 56.82$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 786 | 51.8%407 W · 379 L | -16.6wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29b1…f737backed Under | 57c | 54$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.22 | 284 | 47.9%136 W · 148 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90e4…e026backed Under | 46c | 53.42$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.62 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.38per pick | 37cpaid | +149.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1600…5a08backed Over | 44c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 127 | 35.4%45 W · 82 L | -9.0wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa8a3…a380backed Under | 56c | 49$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.56 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Over | 42c | 47.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.16 | 780 | 38.5%300 W · 480 L | +23.5wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Under | 56c | 46.75$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.34 | 1,530 | 51.7%791 W · 739 L | +22.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Under | 55c | 43$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.35 | 479 | 44.7%214 W · 265 L | -25.8wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…8e56backed Over | 57c | 34.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.68 | 490 | 45.3%222 W · 268 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x07a4…be3abacked Over | 44c | 34$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.96 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f6c…ac71backed Over | 44c | 33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.52 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +2.8wins | +0.12per pick | 49cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4970…21f6backed Under | 56c | 28$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.32 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Over | 64c | 25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1,140 | 51.5%587 W · 553 L | +40.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Under | 55c | 24.55$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.05 | 939 | 53.6%503 W · 436 L | +29.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b5…7e80backed Over | 64c | 23.15$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.82 | 1,107 | 52%576 W · 531 L | +63.9wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf6b7…688cbacked Under | 57c | 21.05$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.05 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +113.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x72fe…e2cebacked Under | 57c | 19$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.26 | 234 | 62%145 W · 89 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Over | 70c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 498 | 51%254 W · 244 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Capitals vs. Blackhawks: O/U 6.5this page
- Capitals vs. BlackhawksCapitals won
- Capitals vs. Blackhawks: O/U 5.5Over won
- Spread: Capitals (-1.5)Capitals won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.