NHL · resolved market
Spread: Capitals (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3ee2975459be62bcf6b708a3cf9b944be8df5ca46ede92b5eb79c51c44846df3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Capitalsof Capitals, Blackhawks
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,588
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,862
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,588 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x98f7…b3e4backed Capitals | 35c | 8,944$3,095 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,849.46 | 107 | 53.3%57 W · 50 L | +7.6wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Blackhawks | 65c | 4,966$3,216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,215.69 | 1,679 | 54.4%914 W · 765 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Blackhawks | 67c | 2,390$1,590 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,589.5 | 619 | 59.1%366 W · 253 L | +17.9wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Blackhawks | 68c | 1,978$1,338 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,338.21 | 1,948 | 49.4%962 W · 986 L | +24.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Blackhawks | 41c | 715.05$296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$295.71 | 127 | 33.1%42 W · 85 L | -10.1wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4fc1…ec92backed Blackhawks | 66c | 634.05$419 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$419.45 | 543 | 49.5%269 W · 274 L | +2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Capitals | 79c | 564$448 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.16 | 1,406 | 47%661 W · 745 L | +58.6wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…8e56backed Blackhawks | 45c | 356.96$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.69 | 490 | 45.3%222 W · 268 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8861…e19fbacked Capitals | 44c | 315.79$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.79 | 177 | 53.1%94 W · 83 L | +6.7wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x06e6…87e6backed Capitals | 33c | 229$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.43 | 177 | 44.6%79 W · 98 L | -12.0wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x90c5…534cbacked Capitals | 37c | 200$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126 | 541 | 32.7%177 W · 364 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Blackhawks | 65c | 200$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 1,143 | 50.8%581 W · 562 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Capitals | 37c | 181.01$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.32 | 1,530 | 51.7%791 W · 739 L | +22.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Capitals | 32c | 133$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.03 | 1,024 | 48.4%496 W · 528 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc0e6…71e4backed Blackhawks | 68c | 126$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.68 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd6…ab3dbacked Blackhawks | 58c | 125$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.5 | 224 | 43.3%97 W · 127 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x740b…1d47backed Blackhawks | 51c | 117.65$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 75 | 53.3%40 W · 35 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Blackhawks | 63c | 100$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 1,028 | 53.2%547 W · 481 L | +21.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe31…6573backed Capitals | 33c | 100$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67 | 210 | 42.4%89 W · 121 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec6c…23c7backed Capitals | 51c | 99.66$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.45 | 167 | 38.9%65 W · 102 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf57…52f2backed Blackhawks | 68c | 93.38$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.1 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.4wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x44f0…432cbacked Capitals | 34c | 83$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.78 | 125 | 48.8%61 W · 64 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a3…790fbacked Capitals | 33c | 79.58$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.32 | 43 | 41.9%18 W · 25 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec9…ae7abacked Blackhawks | 19c | 78.25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.02 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1db3…ada1backed Capitals | 33c | 62.57$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.62 | 129 | 43.4%56 W · 73 L | -9.0wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -14%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1769…94efbacked Capitals | 55c | 62$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.14 | 349 | 49.9%174 W · 175 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaab6…607ebacked Capitals | 33c | 60$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.5 | 432 | 50.9%220 W · 212 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0ce…ba12backed Capitals | 37c | 54.05$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.05 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Blackhawks | 65c | 53.73$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.05 | 479 | 44.7%214 W · 265 L | -25.8wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4794…d6e5backed Capitals | 33c | 51.73$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.73 | 67 | 55.2%37 W · 30 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57d5…0bbdbacked Blackhawks | 65c | 50$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.55 | 128 | 26.6%34 W · 94 L | -12.3wins | -0.10per pick | 36cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x97c3…b479backed Blackhawks | 55c | 49.99$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.4 | 74 | 36.5%27 W · 47 L | -9.6wins | -0.13per pick | 49cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Blackhawks | 66c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 629 | 44%277 W · 352 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Blackhawks | 67c | 21.82$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.61 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Blackhawks | 69c | 21.62$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.92 | 786 | 51.8%407 W · 379 L | -16.6wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Capitals | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 629 | 51.2%322 W · 307 L | +18.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Capitals | 77c | 14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.22 | 1,054 | 42.5%448 W · 606 L | -25.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Capitals (-1.5)this page
- Capitals vs. BlackhawksCapitals won
- Capitals vs. Blackhawks: O/U 5.5Over won
- Capitals vs. Blackhawks: O/U 6.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.