NHL · resolved market
Capitals vs. Blackhawks: O/U 5.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x748ef1a0de3903a0ae84c9ca82f3e05f1e5c52a90a91f15b239c876efe601e55
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $38,719
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $40,233
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $38,719 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 71 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1433…56a0backed Under | 45c | 15,602$6,986 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,986.31 | 225 | 50.2%113 W · 112 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 44c | 5,672$2,514 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,513.69 | 1,679 | 54.4%914 W · 765 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Over | 55c | 5,638$3,101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,537.12 | 1,441 | 49.2%709 W · 732 L | +6.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 55c | 5,142$2,852 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,289.83 | 2,894 | 51.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec13…862bbacked Over | 56c | 4,000$2,240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,760 | 225 | 46.2%104 W · 121 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb973…ff16backed Over | 56c | 3,904$2,185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,719.53 | 107 | 46.7%50 W · 57 L | -5.9wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -10%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 57c | 1,318$750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$568.28 | 2,112 | 42.9%907 W · 1,205 L | -10.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 42c | 1,298$551 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$551.01 | 2,664 | 51.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Over | 57c | 1,228$698 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$529.78 | 1,948 | 49.4%962 W · 986 L | +24.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2060…9186backed Over | 56c | 1,001$561 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$440.57 | 308 | 55.5%171 W · 137 L | +9.0wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Under | 44c | 883.69$389 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$388.82 | 561 | 52%292 W · 269 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c82…b56bbacked Over | 56c | 808.13$453 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$355.57 | 140 | 65.7%92 W · 48 L | +13.9wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6713…73dabacked Over | 57c | 784.21$450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$334.21 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -4.6wins | -0.23per pick | 58cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Under | 45c | 727$327 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$327.15 | 1,024 | 48.4%496 W · 528 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Over | 55c | 546.96$301 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$246.13 | 939 | 53.6%503 W · 436 L | +29.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Under | 44c | 495$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.8 | 849 | 53.8%457 W · 392 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 43c | 484.04$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.9 | 629 | 51.2%322 W · 307 L | +18.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x68bf…3e67backed Under | 45c | 480.04$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.22 | 53 | 49.1%26 W · 27 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf79a…56c2backed Under | 43c | 450.01$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.5 | 121 | 52.1%63 W · 58 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb113…8bc6backed Under | 43c | 443.96$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.9 | 495 | 46.5%230 W · 265 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Under | 35c | 373.02$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.35 | 127 | 33.1%42 W · 85 L | -10.1wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Under | 44c | 357.65$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.17 | 1,530 | 51.7%791 W · 739 L | +22.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84d9…76dbbacked Over | 56c | 357.14$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.14 | 485 | 52.2%253 W · 232 L | +8.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4103…9b9ebacked Over | 56c | 340.27$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.27 | 288 | 42%121 W · 167 L | -12.4wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52b4…34a8backed Over | 78c | 339.2$265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.62 | 221 | 50.2%111 W · 110 L | +8.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e5b…5950backed Over | 57c | 313.38$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.79 | 61 | 57.4%35 W · 26 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d01…0ab1backed Under | 43c | 300$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129 | 759 | 46.6%354 W · 405 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8013…5b52backed Under | 43c | 280.01$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.4 | 43 | 51.2%22 W · 21 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Under | 44c | 249.97$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.99 | 583 | 52.1%304 W · 279 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1eee…9b2bbacked Over | 57c | 236.84$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.84 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09d2…cc27backed Over | 67c | 217.94$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.82 | 152 | 38.8%59 W · 93 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -19%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 43c | 198.02$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.2 | 1,028 | 53.2%547 W · 481 L | +21.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5611…e5f4backed Over | 55c | 182.13$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.96 | 95 | 47.4%45 W · 50 L | -5.2wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3920…23e7backed Under | 43c | 180$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.4 | 396 | 49.5%196 W · 200 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38dd…c20abacked Under | 43c | 150$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.5 | 309 | 52.4%162 W · 147 L | +8.1wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07bc…393abacked Over | 55c | 142.79$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.26 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | -3.0wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…8e56backed Over | 63c | 139$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.93 | 490 | 45.3%222 W · 268 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe9f5…3e7abacked Under | 44c | 130.61$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.47 | 66 | 56.1%37 W · 29 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae4…7c46backed Under | 43c | 113.82$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.5 | 104 | 50%52 W · 52 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8a8…2589backed Over | 55c | 110.91$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.91 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8cfa…faa4backed Over | 62c | 102.5$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.1 | 88 | 46.6%41 W · 47 L | -4.4wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Over | 55c | 100$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 1,143 | 50.8%581 W · 562 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15e3…009fbacked Over | 55c | 100$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 388 | 57.2%222 W · 166 L | +8.8wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc0f1…807dbacked Over | 56c | 91.98$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.47 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30ad…6a69backed Over | 56c | 89.29$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.29 | 231 | 58%134 W · 97 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf263…e9c1backed Over | 57c | 87.72$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.72 | 84 | 51.2%43 W · 41 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2639…a9b6backed Over | 57c | 87.72$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.72 | 174 | 42.5%74 W · 100 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06e6…87e6backed Over | 56c | 62$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.28 | 177 | 44.6%79 W · 98 L | -12.0wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9d28…7a6dbacked Under | 44c | 60.71$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.71 | 352 | 48%169 W · 183 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57d5…0bbdbacked Over | 58c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.95 | 128 | 26.6%34 W · 94 L | -12.3wins | -0.10per pick | 36cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc6…b20dbacked Over | 57c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.5 | 598 | 52.3%313 W · 285 L | +34.1wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x97c3…b479backed Under | 32c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 74 | 36.5%27 W · 47 L | -9.6wins | -0.13per pick | 49cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4977…8fd6backed Over | 55c | 49.99$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 177 | 54.2%96 W · 81 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1889…0714backed Under | 43c | 49.2$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.16 | 135 | 54.1%73 W · 62 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Over | 66c | 48$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.24 | 1,054 | 42.5%448 W · 606 L | -25.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaeba…d2d8backed Over | 55c | 45.45$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.45 | 91 | 49.5%45 W · 46 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4794…d6e5backed Under | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 67 | 55.2%37 W · 30 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x50c1…6c6cbacked Under | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 137 | 43.1%59 W · 78 L | -7.8wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Over | 56c | 40.57$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.85 | 786 | 51.8%407 W · 379 L | -16.6wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1aa…071abacked Under | 44c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 45 | 44.4%20 W · 25 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1db3…ada1backed Over | 55c | 39.99$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.05 | 129 | 43.4%56 W · 73 L | -9.0wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -14%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Under | 44c | 38.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.27 | 479 | 44.7%214 W · 265 L | -25.8wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d66…0e16backed Over | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.71 | 125 | 48%60 W · 65 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25ab…20dbbacked Over | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.71 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Over | 58c | 35$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.8 | 1,140 | 51.5%587 W · 553 L | +40.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Over | 59c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.3 | 740 | 54.5%403 W · 337 L | +22.6wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac27…18e7backed Over | 56c | 27.68$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.18 | 96 | 49%47 W · 49 L | -6.4wins | -0.07per pick | 56cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0f…1ecdbacked Over | 56c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 68 | 44.1%30 W · 38 L | -4.3wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4c74…e4debacked Over | 56c | 20.38$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.96 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb1cb…fb77backed Over | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 60 | 40%24 W · 36 L | -8.6wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8b…d3d6backed Over | 59c | 17.36$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.16 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Capitals vs. Blackhawks: O/U 5.5this page
- Capitals vs. BlackhawksCapitals won
- Capitals vs. Blackhawks: O/U 6.5Under won
- Spread: Capitals (-1.5)Capitals won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.