Tennis · resolved market
ITF Rochester: Axel Nefve vs Matthew Thomson
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0f31a5d97a6ce8b6c7cd7d02f41e8306bb8de843f952874dd4847ca6a4637a55
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Axel Nefveof Axel Nefve, Matthew Thomson
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $54,080
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $75,570
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $54,080 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x060f…5a9dbacked Axel Nefve | 47c | 21,606$10,135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,470.73 | 76 | 72.4%55 W · 21 L | +6.8wins | +0.09per pick | 63cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Matthew Thomson | 53c | 11,291$5,959 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,958.54 | 11,435 | 43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L | +17.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Matthew Thomson | 57c | 3,492$1,990 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,990.31 | 3,661 | 45.2%1,654 W · 2,007 L | -8.7wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x86c8…c867backed Matthew Thomson | 21c | 1,877$394 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$394.26 | 492 | 52.4%258 W · 234 L | +28.8wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +34.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7462…3ac3backed Matthew Thomson | 4c | 1,313$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.54 | 1,681 | 50%841 W · 840 L | +30.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +13%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Matthew Thomson | 48c | 948$459 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$458.95 | 2,761 | 53.9%1,487 W · 1,274 L | +73.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef29…2f1ebacked Matthew Thomson | 21c | 923.58$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.46 | 1,111 | 45.3%503 W · 608 L | -35.7wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6770…c3bdbacked Axel Nefve | 57c | 799.2$455 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$344.19 | 923 | 52.5%485 W · 438 L | +10.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc07d…b1dfbacked Axel Nefve | 58c | 626.92$366 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260.44 | 2,383 | 55.6%1,326 W · 1,057 L | +49.3wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7547…d158backed Matthew Thomson | 43c | 558.25$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238.91 | 7,049 | 39.7%2,795 W · 4,254 L | -20.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Axel Nefve | 53c | 484.92$258 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$227.14 | 8,828 | 36.1%3,190 W · 5,638 L | -193.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd3a…91fdbacked Matthew Thomson | 21c | 409.71$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.04 | 1,018 | 46.8%476 W · 542 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8bf9…8292backed Matthew Thomson | 47c | 407.51$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.53 | 588 | 57.7%339 W · 249 L | +20.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3cad…92f0backed Matthew Thomson | 21c | 242.86$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 3,220 | 40.5%1,305 W · 1,915 L | +28.3wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09da…56ffbacked Matthew Thomson | 42c | 238.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 118 | 32.2%38 W · 80 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7179…7d79backed Matthew Thomson | 48c | 216.67$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104 | 2,601 | 46.5%1,209 W · 1,392 L | +18.8wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6717…d6ebbacked Axel Nefve | 58c | 173.28$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.28 | 363 | 49.6%180 W · 183 L | +9.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedfa…fd66backed Matthew Thomson | 21c | 130.03$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.31 | 28 | 71.4%20 W · 8 L | +4.1wins | +0.15per pick | 57cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x56f6…cda7backed Matthew Thomson | 21c | 125.81$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.42 | 145 | 47.6%69 W · 76 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57e7…84e9backed Matthew Thomson | 57c | 119.03$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.85 | 226 | 38.9%88 W · 138 L | -13.6wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x775d…6bebbacked Matthew Thomson | 43c | 115.81$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.15 | 1,767 | 52.1%920 W · 847 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb71e…641abacked Matthew Thomson | 49c | 115$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.03 | 337 | 51.9%175 W · 162 L | +11.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b5f…3397backed Matthew Thomson | 44c | 106.06$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.67 | 427 | 43.8%187 W · 240 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42a1…a8e9backed Matthew Thomson | 51c | 100$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 394 | 51.3%202 W · 192 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe50b…c2a8backed Axel Nefve | 52c | 100$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 363 | 49.9%181 W · 182 L | -5.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f34…ed6abacked Matthew Thomson | 51c | 100$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 397 | 51.4%204 W · 193 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…504abacked Matthew Thomson | 52c | 98.08$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 3,424 | 39.1%1,338 W · 2,086 L | -12.3wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x14e7…a32cbacked Matthew Thomson | 43c | 97$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.17 | 1,349 | 49.8%672 W · 677 L | -6.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0fd9…039bbacked Matthew Thomson | 52c | 96.15$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1,008 | 38.3%386 W · 622 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a80…11c5backed Axel Nefve | 56c | 91.52$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.66 | 739 | 51.7%382 W · 357 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e0…7eecbacked Axel Nefve | 55c | 90.25$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.38 | 1,175 | 52.9%622 W · 553 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x629d…756cbacked Matthew Thomson | 43c | 89.9$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.96 | 2,082 | 52.3%1,088 W · 994 L | +19.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf610…741cbacked Matthew Thomson | 22c | 87.05$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.15 | 69 | 40.6%28 W · 41 L | -3.5wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -12%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x31e7…fe2abacked Matthew Thomson | 52c | 86.54$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 1,356 | 38.3%520 W · 836 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Matthew Thomson | 42c | 86$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.32 | 8,505 | 42.6%3,619 W · 4,886 L | -166.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Matthew Thomson | 44c | 83.06$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.68 | 6,449 | 46.3%2,987 W · 3,462 L | -42.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc85…aa54backed Matthew Thomson | 21c | 80.77$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.96 | 119 | 49.6%59 W · 60 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb77…1c78backed Matthew Thomson | 58c | 72.41$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 2,151 | 37.3%802 W · 1,349 L | -27.2wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd96…11a3backed Axel Nefve | 56c | 71.42$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.42 | 2,274 | 58%1,318 W · 956 L | -10.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Matthew Thomson | 44c | 68.87$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.37 | 3,874 | 45.4%1,758 W · 2,116 L | -39.6wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4207…fe8abacked Matthew Thomson | 21c | 64.48$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.54 | 49 | 49%24 W · 25 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b5…c8f8backed Matthew Thomson | 51c | 64.32$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.93 | 1,062 | 42%446 W · 616 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f06…8ebebacked Axel Nefve | 57c | 52.63$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.63 | 205 | 53.7%110 W · 95 L | +9.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8920…9c0cbacked Matthew Thomson | 47c | 47.05$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.07 | 293 | 47.4%139 W · 154 L | -7.9wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9755…ab85backed Matthew Thomson | 42c | 46$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.44 | 358 | 51.7%185 W · 173 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70fc…ab12backed Matthew Thomson | 55c | 45$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.84 | 423 | 50.8%215 W · 208 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2721…cf8abacked Matthew Thomson | 46c | 37.25$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.04 | 67 | 46.3%31 W · 36 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ef1…5acabacked Axel Nefve | 56c | 35$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.4 | 1,794 | 60.2%1,080 W · 714 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xddb6…b9b3backed Axel Nefve | 63c | 34.29$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.84 | 1,725 | 52.2%901 W · 824 L | -8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7dde…30b1backed Axel Nefve | 79c | 29.49$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.19 | 829 | 58.1%482 W · 347 L | +17.5wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x53c9…234dbacked Matthew Thomson | 47c | 25.53$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 86 | 58.1%50 W · 36 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Axel Nefve | 60c | 18.9$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.61 | 5,416 | 48.6%2,633 W · 2,783 L | +14.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.