Movies · resolved market
Will "Moana 2" have a Tomatometer score of 85-89?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0f421a2d51f6fde06441789fc54022a382704ff685349476f87741ac6237cb66
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,271,278
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,389,876
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,271,278 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x89e3…e78ebacked Yes | 0c | 20,611$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.83 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9739…159fbacked Yes | 0c | 20,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 121 | 4.1%5 W · 116 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -85%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1be9…6527backed Yes | 1c | 5,166$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x463e…664ebacked Yes | 0c | 4,558$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.67 | 15 | 0%0 W · 15 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f9…b3debacked Yes | 1c | 3,941$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.42 | 52 | 0%0 W · 52 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75b4…5aabbacked Yes | 13c | 3,836$499 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$498.68 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -92.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b98…b8e1backed Yes | 0c | 2,424$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa270…c45fbacked Yes | 1c | 2,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc3dc…581fbacked Yes | 1c | 1,442$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed Yes | 3c | 1,089$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.66 | 35 | 22.9%8 W · 27 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x335b…8c32backed Yes | 3c | 517.24$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 12cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x382c…a0d7backed Yes | 9c | 500$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.4 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -51.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x816d…944abacked Yes | 15c | 424.12$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.89 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x379d…54efbacked Yes | 10c | 275.09$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.76 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.12per pick | 21cpaid | -53%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf259…7592backed Yes | 5c | 243.98$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 23 | 13%3 W · 20 L | -2.6wins | -0.11per pick | 24cpaid | -74.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7f49…e6a5backed Yes | 5c | 238.1$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87ba…9fd1backed Yes | 11c | 226.73$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.34 | 53 | 49.1%26 W · 27 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xccf9…21f6backed Yes | 10c | 207.6$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -68.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe006…4b01backed Yes | 13c | 150.35$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea27…8a0bbacked Yes | 8c | 130$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3826…84efbacked Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 74 | 14.9%11 W · 63 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x351a…06a7backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2812…d393backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 19cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6678…d4b6backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa95f…5e82backed Yes | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad86…cd10backed Yes | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.28per pick | 53cpaid | -66.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "Moana 2" have a Tomatometer score of 85-89?this page
- Will "Moana 2" have a Tomatometer score of 60-69?Yes won
- Will "Moana 2" have a Tomatometer score of 70-74?No won
- Will "Moana 2" have a Tomatometer score of 75-79?No won
- Will "Moana 2" have a Tomatometer score of 80-84?No won
- Will "Moana 2" have a Tomatometer score of 90 or more?No won
- Will "Moana 2" have a Tomatometer score of less than 60?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.