Movies · resolved market
Will "Moana 2" have a Tomatometer score of less than 60?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x18038fc4f2469a50c2804556fb923e085715cb3191680f1fd586386b03396be9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $73,543
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $38,014
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $73,543 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa9f9…b3debacked Yes | 6c | 7,580$423 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$423.41 | 52 | 0%0 W · 52 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2137…0677backed Yes | 8c | 3,916$328 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$328.08 | 71 | 35.2%25 W · 46 L | +7.0wins | +0.10per pick | 25cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x16d6…c556backed Yes | 1c | 2,084$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -73.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15f6…e98fbacked Yes | 0c | 2,050$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 36 | 22.2%8 W · 28 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf41…1587backed Yes | 8c | 1,640$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.66 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 3c | 1,493$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.09 | 672 | 32%215 W · 457 L | +14.4wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -30%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7999…ee7ebacked Yes | 4c | 1,232$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 44 | 11.4%5 W · 39 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2227…b572backed Yes | 8c | 1,147$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92 | 184 | 31%57 W · 127 L | -9.6wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa529…0818backed Yes | 5c | 1,008$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 19 | 5.3%1 W · 18 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2aa7…752dbacked Yes | 5c | 962.87$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c6f…7cdabacked Yes | 6c | 689.6$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.38 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85a5…c8d9backed Yes | 6c | 619.69$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.12 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -2.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x48ea…f190backed Yes | 2c | 619.66$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e9a…bc84backed Yes | 6c | 550.02$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.5 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb03…4bdfbacked Yes | 9c | 550$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.9 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x438e…9704backed Yes | 4c | 500$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1166…94acbacked Yes | 4c | 500$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -87.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5235…c04abacked Yes | 7c | 500$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.5 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +2.4wins | +0.12per pick | 33cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x498e…2394backed Yes | 3c | 499.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x64c6…a070backed Yes | 4c | 499.89$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.87 | 62 | 30.6%19 W · 43 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6e2…e42abacked Yes | 5c | 400$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0905…e5c0backed Yes | 4c | 318$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.39 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3826…84efbacked Yes | 5c | 300.47$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 74 | 14.9%11 W · 63 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x190e…6bf6backed Yes | 9c | 283.89$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea27…8a0bbacked Yes | 4c | 252.77$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf934…9f73backed Yes | 6c | 197.11$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.53 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "Moana 2" have a Tomatometer score of less than 60?this page
- Will "Moana 2" have a Tomatometer score of 60-69?Yes won
- Will "Moana 2" have a Tomatometer score of 70-74?No won
- Will "Moana 2" have a Tomatometer score of 75-79?No won
- Will "Moana 2" have a Tomatometer score of 80-84?No won
- Will "Moana 2" have a Tomatometer score of 85-89?No won
- Will "Moana 2" have a Tomatometer score of 90 or more?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.